Transcript Health impacts of energy production

Health impacts of energy production:
climate policy assessments
Jouni Tuomisto, THL
Energy production by source in
Finland
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_008_fi.html
Final energy use in Finland
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_016_fi.html
Electricity production by source in
Finland
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_010_fi.html
Electricity use by sector in Finland
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_020_fi.html
Renewable energy share 2009 and
target 2020
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_021_fi.html
Greenhouse gas emissions in Finland
• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011
_04_2012-03-22_kuv_023_fi.html
Carbon dioxide emissions in Finland
jätehuolto 4 %
teollisuuden prosessit 4 %
maatalous 9 %
liikenne 17 %
• yksityisautoilu
• teollisuuden ja
kaupan kuljetukset
• julkinen liikenne
energiantuotanto 66 %
• teollisuuteen
• kotitalouksien sähkönkulutukseen ja
lämmitykseen
• palvelusektorille
Maapallon tasolla maankäyttö
(metsien hävittäminen) aiheuttaa
18% päästöistä
13
Lähde: Tilastokeskus 2003
ilmasto.org
Nord Pool regions
• http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Templates/Pages/Map
PageTemplate.aspx?id=1449&epslanguage=en
Electricity production in Nordic
countries (Nord Pool)
• http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Global/Download%20
Center/TSO/Nordic-production-split_2004-2011.pdf
Heat, power, and cool energy
consumpion in Helsinki region (3 d)
• http://www.helen.fi/sahko/energiahankinta/
Monthly electricity prices in Nordic
countries
• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Electricity_prices_in_Nordic
_countries
Energy balance model is a set of
equations
•
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_linear_equations#Vector_equation
A system of three linear equations
• There is typically a
single solution.
•
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil
e:Secretsharing-3-point.png
The set can be described as a matrix
•
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_linear_equations#Matrix_equ
ation
Energy balance model
– http://en.opasnet.org/w/Energy_balance_in_Kuopio
Energy balance – larger version
Measuring utilities
Utility
Option
?
Choose option x
u
Choose
gamble
1-u
Best outcome 1
Worst
outcome
• Adjust u in such a way that you are
indifferent between the two options.
• Then, your utility for option x is u(x).
0
Which option is the best?
0.03
0.3
Healthy
1
0.003
Side effect
0
0.15
Swine flu
Vaccination
Do nothing
Swine flu
Utility
Healthy
0.3
1
Which option is the best?
0.03
Vaccination
Do nothing
u; E(u)
Swine flu 0.3;0.009
Healthy 1;0.967
0.003
Side effect
0.15
Swine flu 0.3;0.045
Healthy
• u(Vaccination)=0.976
• u(Do nothing)=0.895 Choose vaccination
0;0
1;0.85
Causal diagrams: a powerful tool for
describing decision analysis models
Swine flu
Outcome
Vaccination
Complicat
ions
Causal diagram - practice
• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessment_of_the_health_
impacts_of_H1N1_vaccination
Structure of a decision table
• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision
Major health effects due to Climate
Change (size of impact and confidence on the estimate)
Source: IPCC 2007
Not only extremes: Pathways by which
climate change affects health and favourable
conditions may help
Source: IPCC 2007
Key messages related to health (in U.S.A.)
Climate change impacts report USA 2009
•
Increases in the risk of illness and death related to extreme heat and
heat waves are very likely. Some reduction in the risk of death related
to extreme cold is expected.
•
Warming is likely to make it more challenging to meet air quality
standards necessary to protect public health.
•
Extreme weather events cause physical and mental health problems.
Some of these events are projected to increase.
•
Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to
increase.
•
Rising temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase pollen
production and prolong the pollen season in a number of plants with
highly allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk.
•
Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor, are most
vulnerable to a range of climate-related health effects.
Additional deaths caused by climate
chance in 2000
Stern 2006
Global radiative forcing
IPCC 2007