Daniel Murdiyarso
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Transcript Daniel Murdiyarso
Adaptation to Climate Change:
Southeast Asian perspectives
Daniel Murdiyarso
Department of Geophysics and Meteorology
Bogor Agricultural University
AIACC Asia-Pacific Region Open Meeting
Bangkok, 24 March 2003
Outline
From Science to Key Policy Questions
The Opportunities
The Barriers
The Strategies
Conclusions
What to adapt - impacts on rice yields
Country
Yield impacts (%)
Reference
Indonesia
-3 to -4
Parry et al., 1992
Malaysia
-22 to -12
Parry et al., 1992
Myanmar
-14 to 22
Matthews et al., 1995
Philippines
-14 to 14
Matthews et al., 1995
Thailand
-4 to 8
Parry et al., 1992
What to adapt - water resources
Country
Sectoral Withdrawal (%)
Domestic
Industry
Agriculture
Cambodia
5
1
94
Indonesia
3
11
76
Laos
8
10
82
Malaysia
23
30
47
Myanmar
7
3
90
Philippines
18
21
61
Singapore
45
51
4
Thailand
4
6
90
Vietnam
13
9
78
What to adapt - human health
Disease
Increase (%)
Malaria
12 - 27
Dengue
31 - 47
Schistosomiasis
11 - 17
IPCC (1998)
What to adapt - coral bleaching
Country
1997/1998 event
Rate of recovery
Indonesia
30
Moderate
Malaysia
40
Fast
Philippines
80
Moderate
Thailand
50
Fast
Singapore
90
Slow
Wilkinson et al., 2000
Key policy questions - Dichotomy?
To adapt or to mitigate? - opportunity costs
To conserve or to develop? - tradeoffs
Local or global agenda? - international treaties
Who pay and how much? - rewarding mechanisms
Who can participate? - governance
The Opportunities
Back to the Convention (FCCC Art. 4.8 and 4.9 vs
KP Art. 3.14)
GEF and Special Climate Change Fund increased and predictable to ‘compensate’
Equity, NOT complementary
Avoid free-rider problems
The Barriers
Adaptation cost to attack the impacts - is hardly met
Mitigation cost to attack the causes - is more expensive
Adaptation under UNFCCC is a non-binding mechanism
Human/institution adaptive capacities are low
The Strategies
Re-negotiate adaptation fund - legally binding?
Develop efficient ‘compensation’ mechanisms
Enhance community participation/
preparedness
Conclusions
Resilience of most sectors in Southeast Asia is very
poor
The capacity to cope varies with country - make the
government works for the most vulnerable group of
community
For equity reasons - Adaptation Fund should get
more attention in the next round of climate
negotiations
Effective adaptation strategies require local
involvement and inclusion of community perceptions