Transcript Daniel Murdiyarso

Adaptation to Climate Change:
Southeast Asian perspectives
Daniel Murdiyarso
Department of Geophysics and Meteorology
Bogor Agricultural University
AIACC Asia-Pacific Region Open Meeting
Bangkok, 24 March 2003
Outline
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From Science to Key Policy Questions
The Opportunities
The Barriers
The Strategies
Conclusions
What to adapt - impacts on rice yields
Country
Yield impacts (%)
Reference
Indonesia
-3 to -4
Parry et al., 1992
Malaysia
-22 to -12
Parry et al., 1992
Myanmar
-14 to 22
Matthews et al., 1995
Philippines
-14 to 14
Matthews et al., 1995
Thailand
-4 to 8
Parry et al., 1992
What to adapt - water resources
Country
Sectoral Withdrawal (%)
Domestic
Industry
Agriculture
Cambodia
5
1
94
Indonesia
3
11
76
Laos
8
10
82
Malaysia
23
30
47
Myanmar
7
3
90
Philippines
18
21
61
Singapore
45
51
4
Thailand
4
6
90
Vietnam
13
9
78
What to adapt - human health
Disease
Increase (%)
Malaria
12 - 27
Dengue
31 - 47
Schistosomiasis
11 - 17
IPCC (1998)
What to adapt - coral bleaching
Country
1997/1998 event
Rate of recovery
Indonesia
30
Moderate
Malaysia
40
Fast
Philippines
80
Moderate
Thailand
50
Fast
Singapore
90
Slow
Wilkinson et al., 2000
Key policy questions - Dichotomy?
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To adapt or to mitigate? - opportunity costs
To conserve or to develop? - tradeoffs
Local or global agenda? - international treaties
Who pay and how much? - rewarding mechanisms
Who can participate? - governance
The Opportunities
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Back to the Convention (FCCC Art. 4.8 and 4.9 vs
KP Art. 3.14)
GEF and Special Climate Change Fund increased and predictable to ‘compensate’
Equity, NOT complementary
Avoid free-rider problems
The Barriers
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Adaptation cost to attack the impacts - is hardly met
Mitigation cost to attack the causes - is more expensive
Adaptation under UNFCCC is a non-binding mechanism
Human/institution adaptive capacities are low
The Strategies
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Re-negotiate adaptation fund - legally binding?
Develop efficient ‘compensation’ mechanisms
Enhance community participation/
preparedness
Conclusions
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Resilience of most sectors in Southeast Asia is very
poor
The capacity to cope varies with country - make the
government works for the most vulnerable group of
community
For equity reasons - Adaptation Fund should get
more attention in the next round of climate
negotiations
Effective adaptation strategies require local
involvement and inclusion of community perceptions