Transcript Water resources, forests and communities of watersheds of the

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND
VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREAS
AND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21)
Rodel D. Lasco
University of the Philippines
Rodel D. Lasco
University of the Philippines
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Introduction
Philippines: > 70% of the total land
area lies within watersheds
 421 principal river basins
 Irrigate > 1.5 M ha of agricultural
lands
 Hydropower major energy source
 18-20M people living in uplands
 Indonesia: most of watersheds in
Java are already at critical stage
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Landuse change in watersheds
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Project objectives
Assess the impacts of climate change to
water resources, forest ecosystems, and
social systems
 Conduct integrated vulnerability
assessment of natural and social
systems
 Develop adaptation strategies
 Promote stakeholder participation
 Contribute to peer reviewed literature
 Help build capacity of local scientists
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Research Team

Philippines: University of the Philippines
at Los Baños (UPLB)
Department of Environment and Natural
Resources (DENR)
Prof. Dr. Rodel D. Lasco
Prof. Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz
Dr. Juan M. Pulhin
DENR representative
 Indonesia: Institute Pertanian Bogor
Dr. Rizaldi Boer
Dr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir
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Key Partners
 Dr. Meine van Noordwijk
International Center for Research in
Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia
 Dr. Josep Canadell
GCTE, Australia
 Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and
Cambodia
 National government agencies, NGOs
and people’s organizations
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Methods
study will focus on a watershed each in
the Philippines (Pantabangan
watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang
Bawang Watershed).
 Stakeholders will be involved at various
steps of the research process
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The Pantabangan Watershed
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Research Framework
Climate
change
scenario
Forest/carbon
budget
Local
communities
Water
Budget
Land use and land
cover change
THE WATERSHED SYSTEM
Biophysical
factors
Socio-economic
political factors
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Climate scenario: MAGICC-SCENGEN
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Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA in 2080 using SRESA2
and SRESB2 scenarios for nine General Circulation Models
in one part of Citarum Watershed
•Sce
nari •Mont •CG •CSIR
o
hs
CM2 O-mk2
•A2
•A2
•B2
•B2
•DJF
•9.16
•JJA
•8.28
•DJF
•6.52
•JJA
•15.7
2
•CS
M1.3
•GFD
•CCS
•ECHa
LR/NIE
m4
R15b •MRI2
S2
•5.09
•0.23
•12.54
•12.6
3
••44.92 23.83
•-2.82
•7.56
•4.02
•2.05
•12.68
•10.0
1
••13.82 41.68
Source: Provided by Xian Fu (2002).
•-7.3
•52.2
1
•10.6
9
•5.61
•DOE
-PCM
•Had
CM3
•10.6
2
•2.18
•3.65
•-5.08
•10.0
4
•27.38
•7.44
•-0.25
•-2.8
•10.7
2
•7.85
•15.74
•19.0
5
•14.51
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Land Use/Cover Change:
The CLUE Model (Verlag, 2002)
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Forest ecosystems: carbon
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The CO2-Fix Model
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Water Resources: OVER-ALL VIC Model
(Link with AS07 Snidvongs et al.)
Liang et al. (1994)
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River Network in Dynamic Routing
Model
Lohmann et al. (1996)
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DATA For Model
Data for VIC Model
 Forcing Data
 Precipitation
 Maximum
Temperature
 Minimum
Temperature
 Wind speed
 Template Data
 Soil property
 Land cover
 Elevation
Data for Routing Model
 Elevation
 Stream Network
 Discharge Data
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Comparison of Observed and Calibrated Daily Streamflow
40.0000
35.0000
30.0000
Streamflow (m 2/s)
25.0000
20.0000
15.0000
10.0000
5.0000
0.0000
12/1/96
1/20/97
3/11/97
4/30/97
6/19/97
8/8/97
9/27/97
11/16/97
1/5/98
2/24/98
-5.0000
DATE
OBSERVED
CALIBRATED
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Human dimension
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Impacts and adaptation of local
communities
Primary and secondary data
Field reconnaissance and
establishment of rapport
Participatory vulnerability and
adaptation assessment
Present vulnerability and adaptation of
local communities to climate variability
and extremes
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Human dimension (cont)
combination of participatory techniques
such as stakeholder analysis, time line
and community mapping
 These techniques will be complemented
by interviews of households
 future impacts of climate change will be
assessed based on the local people’s
experiences and responses to past
climate variability and extremes
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Capacity Building
The training/workshop on climate change
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
November 25 to December 8, 2002
 6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and
Vietnam
 Small research grants provided
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STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Discussion with agriculture extension workers and
farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia
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NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines
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DENR Briefing, Philippines
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CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
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Thank you!
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