Transcript Planning for Adaptation

Implications of
Climate Change
for Food
Production
Planning for adaptation
and adaptive capacity
Planning for
Agriculture and Food
Winnipeg
July 14, 2008
Four Key Points to Make
Relevant to Planning
4. Don’t forget
the mitigation
+ adaptation
nexus
1. Specific
Adaptations 2. Capacity
of people
to adapt
3. Capacity of
plans and
policies to
adapt
[Government of Canada 2007]
Palliser’s Triangle
In 1860 Captain John Palliser, British North
American Exploring Expedition, warned that
disaster would befall those who tried to settle
the region.
–1906;
–1936-38 (quarter million
people displaced);
–1961;
–1976-77;
Drought: A long history
–1980;
of bad experience
–1984-85;
–1988;
–2001-2003 (“the worst ever?”
$3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ 41 000
jobs lost
Weather Stresses cited by
Manitoba Farmers
Precipitation Variability
(1960-2002)
Spatial Distribution of Temperature
Increases
Source: IPCC, 2007
Surface
Projected surface
temperature change
( C)
Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change on the Prairies
Impacts on Agriculture
• Benefits:
– warmer and longer growing seasons and a warmer
winter
– Increasing temperature will be positive for crop
growth and yield, up to certain thresholds.
• Negative impacts:
– from changes in timing of precipitation
– Increased risk of droughts and associated pests
– Increased risk of excessive moisture
Planning for
Adaptation
Coping and Adaptation Responses of
Farmers Interviewed - Manitoba
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Employ a standard farm practice
Alter a farm cycle for no longer than one season
Access outside help from within the agricultural sector
Wait it out.
Work longer or do extra work.
Make crop insurance claims.
Work with the weather
Use technological advances.
Increase buffering capacity
Reduce seeding or other inputs.
Alter a farm cycle for more than one season.
Use local associations and support networks.
Example Adaptations Relevant
to Land Use Planning
• Reduced Tillage
– Increase soil moisture and decreased erosion, while also reducing
input costs.
– Also beneficial in wetter times, such as by allowing travel on soggy
land.
– Important to ensure responsible use of herbicides to prevent negative
long-term impacts
• Land Drainage
– Properly maintained drainage infrastructure can increase short and
medium-term capacity to cope with heavy rainfall and excess
moisture.
– However, long-term adaptation is better enabled by investing in
changes that mimic the natural landscape (e.g., managed wetlands,
constructing prairie potholes) to act to retain water in times of
drought and regulate water in wetter periods.
Planning for
Mitigation + Adaptation
IISD 2004
A Generalized Vulnerability
Framework
V = f(Exposure, Adaptive Capacity)
Smit and Pilifosova (2003)
Vulnerability
Exposure
Adaptive
Capacity
Adaptive
Capacity
Economic
Resources
Technology
Information, skills
and management
Income generation
Relative to capital
investment
Water access
technology
Enterprise
Information
Management
Income generation
Relative to summary
expenses
Computer
technology
Off-farm
earnings
Diversity of
Employment
opportunities
Institutions and
Networks
Equity
Soil resource
Social capital (via
Informal networks)
Employment
opportunities
Soil resource
Management
practices
Surface water
resource
Email use
Access to health
And social services
Technological
flexibility
Environmental
Management
practices
Groundwater
resource
Internet use
Distribution of
Income in general
population
Technological
exposure
Experience and
wisdom
Transportation
network
Access to agri
Education
institutions
Distribution of
Income in the
Agri. population
Infrastructure
Data Sources
2001 Census of Agriculture, 2001 Census of Population, 2005 Statistics Canada report on …
Important are …
1. The capacity of people
to adapt; AND
2. The capacity of plans
and policies to adapt
From the Summary:
“When situations are characterized by
variability, uncertainty and change,
conventional planning scenarios
provide little guidance regarding
future needs and conditions.”
“…clear need for frameworks that
are "adaptive" - that reflect
uncertainties and can respond and
adapt as contexts change or
unforeseen problems emerge.”
“Specific solutions are less
important than the existence of
processes and frameworks that
enable solutions to be identified and
implemented as specific constraints
and contexts change.”
framework for adaptive policies
Adaptive Policy
Ability of policy to
adapt to anticipated
conditions
(based on a good understanding
of cause and effect)
Automatic
Adjustment
Monitoring to trigger
policy adjustments
Multi-perspective
Analysis
to perform in a range of
anticipated scenarios
Ability of policy to
adapt to unanticipated
conditions
(based on a good understanding of
system dynamics and complexity)
Formal Review &
Improvement
Self-organization
& Social Networks
Regular review; pilot
testing; experimentation
Encourage interaction and
initiative to foster
innovative responses
Multi-perspective
Deliberation
Decentralization
Variation
To accurately inform policy
design and recognize
emerging issues
Matching scales of
ecosystems and
governance
Multiple interventions;
diversity and risk
spreading
Summary of Four Key Points
for Planning
4. Don’t forget
the mitigation
+ adaptation
nexus
1. Specific
Adaptations 2. Capacity
of people
to adapt
3. Capacity of
plans and
policies to
adapt