Transcript connell_ukcip - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

The UKCIP experience:
Application of scenarios in I, A
& V assessments
AIACC Intensive Training Course, Tyndall Centre,
UEA, 16 March 2002
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Dr Richenda Connell
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Scope
• Introduction to the Programme
• Core tools for studies
• Application of scenarios in sub-UK scoping studies and
sectoral studies
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What is UKCIP?
• Funded by the UK Government’s Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) since 1997
• Overall aim is: to establish a framework for stakeholderled research on the impacts of climate change in the UK
at a regional and national level based on common tools
and datasets
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What is UKCIP?
• Helps organisations assess how they might be affected by
climate change and plan appropriate responses
• Links research and decision-making (local - national level)
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Structure of UKCIP
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Run by a Programme Office of 6 staff
Overseen by DEFRA and high level Steering Committee
Advised by Panel of climate change impacts experts
User Forum provides input from stakeholders
UKCIP helps to initiate, manage and integrate two types of
studies in a common framework:
– integrated assessments at a sub-UK level
– single sector assessments at a national level
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What UKCIP provides: integration
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Common tools and datasets for studies
UKCIP on study steering committees
Guidance for research teams
Support throughout the study - methodological guidance,
reviewing reports, etc.
• Dissemination of information from studies
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UKCIP tools
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Tools for integrated assessment
• Climate change scenarios (UKCIP98, UKCIP02)
• Socio-economic scenarios (2001)
• Datasets (soils, land cover, designated sites etc.) quality assurance, integration, GIS
• Risk and uncertainty in decision-making (forthcoming)
• Methodology for costing the impacts of climate change
(forthcoming)
• All tools and data funded by DEFRA
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UKCIP98 climate scenarios
• Developed for UKCIP by Hadley
Centre, Met Office & CRU, UEA
• 4 scenarios to represent uncertainty
in future emissions and climate
models
• Timescales: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
• Grid boxes 350 x 250km
• Downscaled to 10km by simple
interpolation
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UKCIP98 scenarios example:
Change in mean winter (DJF) precipitation (%)
2020s
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2050s
2080s
Percentage of years experiencing certain
climate extremes across England and Wales
for the medium-high scenario
Mean temperature
A hot ‘1997-type’August
A warm ‘1997-type’ year
Precipitation
Summer rainfall below 50% of average
A two-year precipitation below 90% of
average
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Present
2020s
2050s
2080s
2
6
15
59
32
85
40
99
1
7
12
10
12
11
14
6
Source:
Hadley Centre and
UEA
Storm surges
• Change in estimated 1/100yr return periods for varying sea level rise
• Small SLR corresponds to a big change in the return period of storm surges
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UKCIP98 scenarios CD-ROM
Analysis by sector: >120 licensed users
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‘Water’ includes river flooding,
water quality, water resources
UKCIP02 climate scenarios
Improvements over UKCIP98:
• Downscaling using the Regional Climate Model
– more geographical detail (50km resolution)
– improved prediction of extremes (daily statistics)
• Based on the latest Hadley Centre global models
– better representation of storm tracks
• Use the full range of new emissions scenarios
– IPCC SRES scenarios of GHG and sulphur
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Change in winter rainfall by 2080s
HADLEY GCM
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HADLEY RCM
How uncertainty is incorporated
into UKCIP climate scenarios (1)
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UKCIP98 and UKCIP02 both have four scenarios
No ‘best guess’
No probabilities
UKCIP98 incorporate emissions uncertainty and
uncertainty about climate sensitivity
• UKCIP02 include emissions uncertainty only
• Recommend using other models too
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How uncertainty is incorporated
into UKCIP climate scenarios (2)
• Four scenarios are ensemble means
• Examine individual ensemble members to understand
natural climate variability* vs. human-induced climate
change
• For temperature, human effect dominates
• For precipitation, 2020s, intra-ensemble range 
ensemble mean change
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* NB These ensembles reflect internal oceanatmosphere variability, not changes in solar
or volcanic forcing
Guidance on use of scenarios
• In-depth / quantitative studies for developing adaptation
strategies - recommend all 4 scenarios and other models
• Scoping studies - consider sensitivity to High/Low
scenarios
• Avoid using one ‘best guess’ scenarios (UKCIP98
medium-high)
• Explore natural variability too
• Understand relative uncertainty of different variables
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Cascade of uncertainty
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CO2 concentration
Global-mean sea level
Global-mean temperature
Regional temperatures
Regional temperature extremes
Regional precipitation
Cloud cover
Climatic variability / extremes
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High confidence
Low confidence
UKCIP socio-economic scenarios
Autonomy
Governance
‘NATIONAL’
ENTERPRISE
Consumerism
LOCAL
STEWARDSHIP
Community
CONVENTIONAL
DEVELOPMENT
GLOBAL
SUSTAINABILITY
WORLD
MARKETS
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Values
Interdependence
Selected indicators of the UKCIP SES in the 2020s
Economic Development
GDP
(average growth 1995-2025)
Planning and Built Environment
Average household size
Land use (%)
agricultural
forest, woodland and other
urban and not specified
Agriculture
Total agricultural area
of which under agricultural production
of which other (set aside, roads etc.)
Organic farming
% of area under agricultural production
Water
River quality (% classified as good)
biologically
chemically
Biodiversity
Area of Sites of Special Scientific Interest
Coastal Zone Management6
Zones protected by coastal defences
Formerly protected areas flooded or eroded as a
result of 'managed retreat' after the mid 1990s
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Today
(mid 1990s)
2020s
(linear)
'National'
Enterprise
Local
Stewardship
World
Markets
Global
Sustainability
+2 % p.a.
+2 % p.a.
+ 1.75 % p.a.
+ 1.25 % p.a.
+ 3 % p.a.
+ 2.25 % p.a.
2.4 persons
2.2 persons
2.4 persons
2.6 persons
2.0 persons
2.2 persons
75 %
10 %
15 %
72.5 %
11 %
16.5 %
73 %
10 %
17 %
76 %
9%
15 %
71 %
11 %
18 %
71 %
13 %
16 %
18,500,000 ha
18,000,000 ha
500,000 ha
17,500,000 ha
17,000,000
500,000 ha
18,000,000 ha
17,500,000 ha
500,000 ha
19,000,000 ha
18,750,000 ha
250,000 ha
16,500,000 ha
16,000,000 ha
500,000 ha
17,500,000 ha
17,000,000 ha
500,000 ha
1%
no stable trend
0%
40 %
3%
20 %
93%
63%
improving
improving
85 %
50 %
95 %
65 %
90 %
60 %
95 %
75 %
2,000,000 ha
3,800,000 ha
1,500,000 ha
4,500,000 ha
2,500,000 ha
5,500,000 ha
235,000 ha
2,500 ha
220,000 ha
10,000 ha
240,000 ha
0 ha
225,000 ha
15,000 ha
240,000 ha
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Data for studies
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Climate scenarios
Socio-economic scenarios
Land cover
Topography
Soils
Geology
Designated sites (SSSI etc.)
Administrative boundaries
Sea level rise
Agri-environmental zones (NVZs, ESAs)
Agricultural census data
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All data integrated and
analysed via GIS
UKCIP studies
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Stages of climate change impact and adaptation
studies
Stage
Central question
Is this an issue?
Issue attention
Stakeholder engagement
Issue identification
What are the issues?
Priority setting
What are the priorities?
Impact assessment
How serious are the expected
impacts?
What options should be
adopted?
Adaptation evaluation
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Research method
Extreme scenarios
Observed trends
Expert opinion
Research synthesis
Expert opinion
Stakeholder interviews
Regional interpretation of reports
Vulnerability profiles
Expert elicitation
Criteria rating/ranking
Workshop processes
Formal modelling
Linked sector models
Decision analysis
Risk assessment
UKCIP progress
Workshops
Meetings
Presentations
Sub-UK scoping studies
DEFRA Nature
Conservation Policy
Review
REGIS, MONARCH
Risk and uncertainty
guidelines being
developed
Funders of UKCIP studies
CCMS - Plymouth
Marine Laboratory
East Midlands Link
The National Trust
The National Trust for
Scotland
Peak District National
Park
The Royal
Horticultural Society
Royal Society for the
Protection of Birds
Surrey Wildlife Trust
Sustainability North
West
Universities of Exeter
and Plymouth
WWF-UK.
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The Scottish Executive
National Assembly for Wales
Department of the Environment Northern Ireland,
Northern Ireland Environment and Heritage Service,
Dúchas The Heritage Service, National Parks and Wildlife
(Republic of Ireland)
Blaby and Boston District Councils,
Cheshire, Cornwall, Derbyshire, Hampshire, Kent,
Lancashire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire,
Nottinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex County
Councils,
Countryside Agency
Countryside Council for Wales
Department of Health
DETR Wildlife and Countryside Directorate
English Heritage
English Nature
Environment Agency
Farming and Rural Conservation Agency
Forestry Commission
Government Offices for the East Midlands, North West
England, South East England, South West England and
West Midlands
North West Regional Association
North West Regional Chamber
MAFF
Scottish Natural Heritage
UKWIR
Acordis
Anglian Water
Arkleton Trust
Association of British Insurers
AXA Insurance,
Carlton TV
Country Life Magazine
Duchy of Cornwall,
East Midlands Airport
Manchester Airport
Marsh UK Ltd
Midlands Environment Business
Club
NatWest Bank
North West Water
Notcutts
PROSPER
Rolls Royce plc
Severn Trent Water
South West Water
SWEB
SWEL
Tarmac plc
Thames Water
Toyota UK
TXU Europe Power Ltd
Wessex Water
Westcountry Television
Westcountry Tourist Board
Wilkinson
Current status of
sub-UK scoping
studies
Scotland scoping study
completed December 1999.
Further studies underway.
Northern Ireland scoping study
complete. To be launched shortly
 Scoping study to be undertaken
North East England conference
held May 2001
Scoping study initiated / underway
Yorkshire and Humberside scoping
study underway.
Conference held
Scoping study completed
Gaps
Integrated assessment underway.
Coverage to be extended
North West England scoping study
completed December 1998.
Funding being sought for next
steps.
East Midlands scoping study
completed July 2000.
 Study to be completed
REGIS study complete in North
West England and East Anglia.
West Midlands scoping study
underway
Wales scoping study completed
February 2000.
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South West England: Conferences held
December 1999 (Cornwall) and January
2001 (Cheltenham).
Scoping study underway
 Gaps in regional coverage to be filled.
Eastern region study at
inception
London scoping study
underway.
South East England scoping study
completed November 1999.
Regional co-ordinator appointed by
SECCP to take forward next stage work.
Features of sub-UK scoping studies
• Review of existing information by literature review and
stakeholder consultation - not original research
• Undertaken by (local) universities, consultants
• Value for money - ca. £50K and quick - ca. 9 months
• Technical reports
• Short reports - useful for policy-makers and good
communications tools - capture attention of regional media
• Launch at high-profile conferences
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Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (1)
• Used to present information simply (visually) to
stakeholders, to elicit their opinions about impacts during
consultation exercises
• Stakeholders respond to broad directions of change,
rather than detail
• Stakeholders look for within-region differences - smaller
scale than UKCIP98 grid size
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Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (2)
• Consultants compare scenarios data for region with impacts
literature, and draw conclusions on regional impacts
• Tendency to use one ‘best guess’ scenario where more
information is available (UKCIP98 medium-high)
• Downscaling used in Wales (RCM data) and East Midlands
(RCM and statistical downscaling data) studies
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Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (3)
Time horizons:
• 2020s, 2050s most commonly used
• Even 2020s is too distant for business sector
• 2080s perceived as having little relevance to most
decision-makers
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Contrasting areas: Scotland and
south east England scoping studies
Scotland
South east England
•Increased risk of flooding and sea
level rise with detrimental impacts on
land transport and marine operations
•Warmer temperatures bring fewer
cold deaths in winter
•Impacts of changes in ocean currents
on salmon, sea trout
•Forestry should benefit from
increased growth rates
•Region could face water shortages
unless planning measures take
climate change into account
•New crops possible, such as soya,
maize, sunflowers, navy beans
•Business and property on coast
vulnerable to SLR
•Low river flows could affect water
quality in value chalk streams
•Ground subsidence of properties on
clay-based soils
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Headline impacts from
sub-UK/ regional scoping studies
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Flooding (rivers and coasts) could worsen significantly
Water resources under stress and water quality threatened
Changing countryside
Many businesses are not aware of climate change impacts
Extreme weather events are key
Integrated assessments are needed
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REGIS
• Integrated regional
assessment
• East Anglia & north
west England
• Used climate and
socio-economic
scenarios
• Funded by DEFRA
and UKWIR
AGRICULTURE
Yields, profitability
& land use
(SRI)
BIODIVERSITY
Ecosystems, species
& habitats
(ECI)
MODELS &
INTERACTIONS
WATER
quantity, quality
& flooding
(SSLRC)
SCENARIOS
Climate and
socio-economic
change (All)
COASTAL ZONE
Sea level rise,
flooding & erosion
(FHRC)
GIS DATABASE
Model inputs &
outputs, landscape
characteristics
(UCL)
STAKEHOLDERS (UMIST/UM)
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INTEGRATED
ASSESSMENT
(All)
REGIS model linkages
Coastal
flooding
risk
Available
land
Agricultural land use
Agricultural
run-off
Cropping model
Optimisation model
Hydrology:
Groundwater
recharge
Species movement
Water quality
Leached
N
River flows
Biodiversity:
River
flows
Habitats
Available
land
Core data for all models:
• climate and soc-econ scenarios
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River
flooding
risk
• soils
• land cover
• topography
Use of scenarios in REGIS (1)
• Coupling climate (CC) and socio-economic scenarios
(SES) generates 120 potential model runs - too many!
• Decided which combinations of scenarios to use at
stakeholder workshop
• Used UKCIP98 Low and UKCIP98 High CC scenarios
(unintelligently downscaled to 10x10km grid) alone - to
understand climate-only effects
• Also used UKCIP98 Low CC + Global Sustainability SES
and UKCIP98 High CC + Regional Enterprise SES - for
2050s
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Use of scenarios in REGIS (2)
• Used UKCIP98 CC - average monthly changes, so don’t
know about impacts of extreme events
• Took UKCIP SES and derived regional quantified SES out
to 2050s, using expert opinion - very difficult to justify
numbers, but have a big effect on the model outputs
• Hence difficult to quantify the relative importance of
climate vs. socio-economic change on systems
• SES used as input data only - so limited capacity to deal
with adaptation strategies and feedbacks in complex
systems (e.g. changing agricultural prices)
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REGIS - Socio-economic scenarios
Non-spatial variables - crop yields & prices, subsidies etc.
Spatial variables - future housing patterns, urban areas, designated
conservation sites, agri-environment schemes etc.
Informed
judgement
Current SSSI’s in E Anglia
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Future ??
Distribution of land use in NW England
1995
NWest 1995
Regional Enterprise
Regional Enterprise
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2050 high
2050High
Climate
only
2050 low
Global Sustainability
2050Low
Climate
only
Legend
Global sustainability
Wwheat
Wbarley
Sbarley
Soats
Pots
Pots100
Pots200
Sbeet
SBeet100
SBeet200
Dpeas
WOSR
SOSR
Wbeans
Sbeans
Linseed
Sunflowers
Fmaize
Ley
Permgrass
S-side
REGIS - lessons learned
• Assessments should develop internally consistent,
"integrated scenarios" - would reduce number of model
runs
• Should include impacts of extreme climatic events
• SES should be placed in a national framework, so validity
of assumptions made at regional level can be verified
• Funders and contractors need to assign sufficient
resources to SES if they are to be developed within future
projects
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MONARCH
• Studies direct impacts of climate change on wildlife and
geomorphological features in Britain and Ireland
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MONARCH climate data
MONARCH used UKCIP98 monthly mean values for:
mean monthly T
no. of rain days
monthly PET
mean monthly windspeed
sum of May and June rainfall
growing degree days (>5oC)
absolute maximum T
minimum monthly T
total monthly rainfall (PPT)
PPT-PET
mean monthly sunshine
max T in warmest month
absolute minimum T
Important climatic data not available from UKCIP98:
no. days with snow / sleet
storms
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max. wind speed and direction
intensity of rainfall events
SPECIES model: in REGIS and MONARCH
• Uses a neural net to predict future climate space for species
• Advantages - robust, copes with variety of data; can identify non-linear
change
Training:
Current European species’ distributions
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Change in UK and Ireland species’
distributions
SPECIES modelling
Potamageton filiformis (Slender-leaved pondweed)
1. Training of neural Net
Actual distribution
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Neural net simulated current distribution
Coenonympha tullia (Large heath butterfly)
2. Simulation
2020s Low
2050s Low
Now (validation)
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2020s High
2050s High
MONARCH - key findings
• Warmer weather will extend range of many species
• Vulnerable species, in the mountains of north Wales and
Scotland could face extinction within 50 years
• Nature conservation will need to evolve with the changing
climate - a more forward-looking and dynamic approach will be
needed
• Accommodating species movements and displacements will
require greater emphasis on wildlife management in the wider
countryside
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New UKCIP studies
• Built environment - several studies with common data needs
which are beyond 50km scale and want them to work together looking at possibility of common downscaling
• MarClim - using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for first time
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Guidance on handling risk and
uncertainty in decision-making
Climate change issue
identification
Information gathering
Identify
problem
Climate change
research, monitoring
Establish
objectives
Monitoring
Options
appraisal
Climate change
application
Implementation
Risk
analysis
Decision (preferred
option)
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Climate change policy
Identify
options
Adaptation
strategies
Vulnerability
assessment
Climate change
scenarios, impacts
assessment,
uncertainties
Methodology for costing climate
change impacts
• For use by non-economists to perform ‘desk-top’ climate
change costing analyses at a local/regional scale,
disaggregated by sector
• Economic theory is kept to a minimum
• Valuation techniques are outlined in a ‘step-by-step’
manner and illustrated with numerical examples
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Conclusions: use of scenarios in
UKCIP studies
• Use (rightly) varies according to study type and purpose
• Users will always want finer detail, but may not exploit the data
fully
• Studies encounter resource limitations on how many scenarios
can be used
• Natural variability is being forgotten
• Socio-economic scenarios are hard to use, but important
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Conclusions: benefits of the
UKCIP approach
• Use of common tools in studies ensures consistent approach
• Conducting studies in a common framework provides a more
realistic assessment of climate change impacts
• Translates a global problem into a local reality
• Gives decision-making “ownership” of the climate change issue
• Delivers information for regional and local planning, and for
national level policy making
• Everyone can benefit from the partnership structure
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