Transcript here - cliffs - Loughborough University

Preparing for climate change in the UK
CLIFFS inception meeting
20 April 2005, Loughborough University
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Dr Richenda Connell
Technical Director
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Outline
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•
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Brief introduction to UKCIP
Regional and sectoral climate change activities
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
UKCIPnext climate information package
Decision-making in the face of uncertainty
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
In a nutshell: what is UKCIP?
• The UK Climate Impacts Programme helps
organisations assess how they might be affected
by climate change, so they can prepare for its
impacts
• Stakeholder-led participatory research
• Working towards ‘integrated national assessment’
• Set up 1997; funded by Defra (Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs)
• Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford
University
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Mitigation
Human
Action
Causation
Impacts
Adaptation
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Climate
Change
UKCIP:
increased
emphasis on
exploring
adaptation
Regional and sectoral
climate change activities
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIP stakeholders
Who are our stakeholders? Other UKCIP contacts
• Decision-makers across UK • 130+ scenarios data
who need to prepare for
users:
– Academic researchers
climate change impacts:
–
–
–
–
–
Government departments
Agencies and utilities
Regions
Local government
Businesses
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
–
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Students
Environmental consultancies
Agencies
Utilities
Local and regional
government
UKCIP sub-UK studies and partnerships
Scotland scoping study
completed December 1999.
Further studies undertaken.
P
North East England scoping
paper published November 2002.
Yorkshire and Humberside
scoping study completed June
2002. Partnership continues.
Appointed regional climate
change coordinator, 2004.
Northern Ireland scoping study
complete.
P: Active
partnership in
place
North West England scoping study
completed December 1998.
Climate Group continues.
Undertaking pilot second stage
study on tourism, 2004-2005.
Appointed climate change project
manager, 2004.
East Midlands scoping study
completed July 2000. Partnership
taking forward next steps.
P
West Midlands scoping study
completed April 2004. Second
stage studies being planned.
P
REGIS study phase 1
complete in North West
England and East Anglia.
Phase 2 underway.
East of England study
completed March 2004.
Partnership taking forward next
steps.
P
P
Wales scoping study completed
February 2000.
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
P
London scoping study completed
October 2002. Partnership continues.
Focussing on transport, growth areas
and financial sector, 2004.
South West England scoping study
completed January 2003.
Partnership continues.
P
South East England scoping study
completed November 1999. Partnership
continues. Regional coordinator appointed.
Next stage research includes ESPACE and
SECTORS projects.
P
P
UKCIP sectoral studies and partnerships
Complete:
– Health
– Nature P
conservation
(MONARCH
Phases 1+2)
– Gardens P
– Water demand
– Regis 1
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Underway:
Future:
– MONARCH Phase 3
– Healthcare?
– Marine biodiversity P
– Regis 2
– Building Knowledge P
for a Changing
Climate
– Tourism
– Business
– Local authorities
– Soils
– Schools?
warm
(Lusitanian)
waters
– Transport?
– Social?
cold (boreal)
waters
Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate
• Aims
– Adaptation knowledge
– User-researcher links
– Develop research agenda
• Features
– Research Council and users
– User + Researcher 
proposal
– Integrating Framework
– Stakeholder Forum
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate
Wider
world
BETWIXT: highresolution weather
scenarios
BESEECH: socioeconomic aspects
CRANIUM: risk
management
Stakeholder
forum
INTEGRATING FRAMEWORK
AUDACIOUS:
Urban
drainage
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
GENESIS:
Energy
ASCCUE:
Urban
planning
BIONICS:
Slope
stability
Engineering
Historic Futures:
Heritage
SUBR:IM
Sustainable Urban
Brownfield Regeneration:
Integrated Management
DTI PII climate
change
projects
On the way to
adaptation
Scoping the
Impacts
Quantifying
the Risks
Decision-making &
Action-Planning
Adaptation
Strategy Review
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Adaptation
pervades the
operation
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios:
Observations of recent change
Future scenarios
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIP02 climate change
scenarios: Contents
• Observations of recent change (5km,
monthly, 1961-2000, 26 quantities)
• Future changes in UK seasonal means
(50km)
• Future changes in daily extremes (50km)
• Expert judgements of levels of confidence
in changes
• Uncertainties illustrated with other models
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Carbon dioxide levels are rising (900 - 2002) [Source: IPCC]
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
% change from 1961-90 average
Change in England and Wales precipitation 1873-2003
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
2.5
lat
The Hadley
Centre third
coupled
model –
HadCM3
3.75
long
19 levels in
atmosphere
1.25
1.25
20 levels
in ocean
Hadley Centre
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
-5km
Area of regional climate modelling for UKCIP02
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Met Office / Hadley Centre
Future greenhouse gas emission scenarios
source IPCC
The four
GHG
emissions
scenarios
used to
develop the
UKCIP02
climate
scenarios
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Carbon emissions
(Gt/yr)
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
CO2 concentration
(ppm)
Carbon emissions (Gt/yr)
CO2 concentration (ppm)
We are already committed to changes up to 2040, but
still have some choice thereafter
Global
temperature
change
(deg C)
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Global mean temperatures will increase further by 2100
source IPCC
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Changes in average temperature
Low
emissions
High
emissions
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance
Central England summer
temperature
Baseline (1961-90)
31oC has 1% chance [I day
per summer]
2080s, medium-high
emissions
31oC has 11% chance
[11 days per summer]
39oC has 1% chance
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Changes in average precipitation
Winter
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Summer
Daily precipitation: probability of exceedance
“Berkshire” rainfall
Winter – solid
Baseline (1961-90):
20mm/day has 1% chance
[I day per winter]
2080s, medium-high
emissions:
20mm/day has 2% chance
[2 days per winter]
25mm has 1% chance
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Global sea level rise
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
High water level return period: Immingham, Lincs
Baseline (1961-90)
1.5m ca. 1 in 120
year event
Medium-high
Emissions, 2080s
1.5m is ca. 1 in 7
year event
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Frequency of UK depressions
Baseline (1961-90) - blue
Medium-High Emissions,
2080s - red
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Other changes by 2050s
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Summer / autumn soil moisture down (0 to -30%)
Summer relative humidity down (0 to –12%)
Summer cloud cover down (0 to –12%)
Snowfall down by 20% to 70%
Fog days down
No significant change in average wind speed –
uncertain
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Summary of expected climate changes
Long-term / seasonal averages
• Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
• Milder, wetter winters
• Rising sea levels
Extremes
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•
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More very hot days
More intense downpours of rain
Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast
Uncertain changes in storms – possible increase in winter
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Circulation strength (Sverdrups)
Will the Gulf Stream collapse?
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
No change in emissions
High emissions
Medium-High
Medium-Low
Low emissions
Climate models show a 20% reduction, but not a switch-off
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
address some uncertainties well
• GHG emissions uncertainty underlies 4 UKCIP02 scenarios
– ‘low emissions, medium-low…, high emissions’
• All based on Hadley Centre model
– results not available for other regional climate model experiments
• Model uncertainty illustrated by comparison with other GCMs
– and uncertainty margins provided
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Model uncertainty
• UKCIP02 scenarios show
great summer drying over UK
than most other climate
models
• “Strongly recommend that
any detailed adaptation
strategy explores a wider
range of uncertainty”
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIPnext climate information package
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Why are new scenarios needed?
• UKCIP02 (April 2002) are still state-of-art
• ..but need to include modelling uncertainty
• User pull: more demanding requirements
• Science push: developments in climate science give
opportunities for improved scenarios
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Developments in climate science
relevant to UKCIPnext scenarios
• Improved global models
– more processes, eg carbon cycle
– better description of processes
• Handling modelling uncertainty via:
– results from other models
– probability predictions
• Higher resolution predictions, down to 12km
• Improved predictions of storms
• Predictions of river flows and storm surges
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Probabilistic climate predictions
Probability
Probability
100%
-40% -30% -20% -10%
0% +10%
2050s E&W summer rainfall
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
-40% -30% -20% -10%
0% +10%
2050s E&W summer rainfall
Change in summer rainfall from 53 model physics ensemble
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
mm/day
James Murphy
Hadley Centre
UKCIP07/08: Probabilistic climate predictions
ATMOSPHERE +
CLOUDS
LAND AND
VEGETATION
Probability
X CLIMATE MODELS
CARBON CYCLE
OCEAN CIRCULATION
ETC.
-40% -30% -20% -10%
0% +10%
2050s E&W summer rainfall
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Probability per 5% bin, %
Probability predictions of change in E&W
seasonal precipitation by 2080s
PRELIMINARY
RESULTS
summer
winter
NOT FOR USE
SUMMER
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
53-member
ensemble
of HadSM3
WINTER
Change in precipitation, %
Annual surface temperature predictions:
UK + near Europe; one year ahead
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Decision-making in the face of uncertainty
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIP/EA decision-making framework
for managing climate risks
Why?
• ‘With so much uncertainty, how can
decisions be made?’
How?
• Developed with Environment
Agency Centre for Risk and
Forecasting
• Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and
‘risk management’ worlds together
– ‘mainstreaming’ climate risks
within existing processes
• Similar to frameworks used for
corporate risk management –
recognisable to decision-makers
• Addresses current & future climate
risks
• Four case studies developed as
basis for training workshops
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
UKCIP/EA decision-making framework
for managing climate risks
Main drivers behind
decision
Criteria for Stage 5
– legislation, risk
attitude
How should London’s
strategies take account
of climate risks?
Tiered risk
assessment –
climate and nonclimate factors
Bring info together
Final checks
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Evaluate
against Stage
2 criteria
No-regret options
Flexible options
Delay/Do nothing?
P6: Use adaptive management
to cope with uncertainty
• Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than
undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop
• Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in
future, when need for adaptation and performance of different
measures is less uncertain
• E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for
future increases in defence height, while not building to a
higher standard immediately
• Circular, iterative framework promotes
adaptive management
UK Climate
4
Impacts5
Programme
P7: Try to find no- or low-regret
adaptation options
•
‘No regret’: deliver benefits that
exceed their costs, whatever the
extent of climate change
•
E.g. If already experiencing weatherrelated problems, carry out costeffective actions to deal with them
•
‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially
large benefits under climate change
•
E.g. Building climate change in at the
design stage for new drainage
system – make pipes wider
UK Climate
4
Impacts5
Programme
P8: Try to find win-win options
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•
‘Win-win’ options contribute
to climate adaptation and
also to other objectives
E.g. Creation of salt-marsh
habitat provides flood
protection for coastal areas
and also contributes to nature
conservation objectives
UK Climate
4
Impacts5
Programme
P9: Avoid actions that will make it more
difficult to cope with climate risks
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•
Adaptation-constraining decisions
make it more difficult for you, or
others to manage future climate
risks
E.g. Inappropriate development in
a flood risk area
UK Climate
Impacts
6
Programme
Summary
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•
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UK’s climate is already changing
UKCIP02 scenarios provide best available information
at present
UKCIPnext package will be probabilistic
Climate adaptation will always involve decision-making
in the face of uncertainty
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
www.ukcip.org.uk
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme