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Adapting to climate change in decision making
Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme
Climate change adaptation strategies in Impact Assessments
Exeter, 8th October 2009
The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
“Helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by
climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”
Set up by Government in 1997
A boundary organisation
• funded by Defra
• based at University of Oxford
Works through:
• stakeholder-led research
• partnerships
• programmes
• capacity building
Provides free guidance, tools and datasets: www.ukcip.org.uk
UKCIP & IEMA
IEMA Practitioner, July 2009 –
“Adapting to climate change: a guide to its
management in organisations”
1.
2.
3.
Managing the process
Understanding the climate risk
Developing an adaptation strategy
1. Managing the process
• Understanding the problem
• Identifying drivers and barriers
• Overcoming the constraints
• Who to involve?
• Mainstreaming adaptation
Understanding the problem: from climate ...
Trends
Hotter, drier
summers
Milder, wetter
winters
Events
Heat
waves
Droughts
Floods
Greater
proportion of
rain in heavy
downpours
Sea level rise
Fewer cold
snaps
Storms
Impacts
Damage to physical
assets
Loss of access to
buildings
Effects on biological/
industrial processes
Consequences
Loss of business
continuity
Changing raw material,
repair, maintenance,
insurance costs
Uncomfortable indoor
environments
Health/ comfort
implications for
employees
Damage to critical
infrastructure
Increased/ decreased
productivity
Changing lifestyles and
consumer tastes
Changing markets
Changing commodity
prices/ availability
Effect on reputation
... to consequences
Climate Change
Potential
impacts
Impacts
on on:
Markets
Environmental risk
Operational risk
Markets
Logistics
Finances
Process
Logistics
Processes
Finance
Premises
People
People
Premises
Consequences for
Management
response
organisation
&
stakeholders
Financial risk
Reputational risk
Health & safety risk
Strategic risk
IEMA members’ survey
Around 1,000 IEMA members provided feedback, September 2009
• 62% of organisations are planning now for adaptation to climate
change (local government 90%, utilities 76%, other business
sectors 62% - 65%)
• Identifying risks relating to their
o Markets
53%
o Finances
46%
o Logistics
44%
o Processes
53%
o Premises
57%
o People
49%
Identifying drivers and barriers
• Stakeholder requirements
• Increasing exposure to
liability or costs
• Opportunities for
improvements
For
• Lack of knowledge or
resources
• Long term / short term
decisions
• Attitudes to risk & uncertainty
Adaptation
Against
2. Understanding the climate risk
• Vulnerability
• Critical thresholds
• Scoping future impacts
• From impacts to risk
What is vulnerability?
• Vulnerability is a function of
o
sensitivity to climatic variability & change
o
exposure to climate risk
o
capacity to adapt
• Affected by factors such as
o
supply chain, physical assets, activities, market features, locations,
resources, institutional arrangements
• An organisation should be able to identify
o
how particular types of weather have
affected it in the past
o
critical thresholds
Developing a Local Climate Impacts Profile
• Uses past experiences and events to review where
operations are currently affected by weather risks
o review significant recent local weather events, the
consequences and institutional responses in order to
understand current vulnerability
o assess effectiveness of current response
arrangements
o use information to raise awareness and prompt action
on high priority threats and opportunities
o process can then be developed into a more
systematic monitoring of impacts
o identify critical thresholds, which, if exceeded will
cause unacceptable risks
Scoping future impacts: BACLIAT
Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool
A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas
1.
markets
2.
logistics
3.
process
4.
finance
5.
people
6.
Premises
Leading to management responses
Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’
3. Developing an adaptation strategy
• Making a commitment
• Setting adaptation objectives
• Prioritising areas for action
• Identifying adaptation options
• Evaluating adaptation options
• Putting together a programme
• Keeping it relevant
Identifying adaptation options
Building
Adaptive
Capacity
1. Create, gather or
share information
e.g. research
2. Create supportive
governance
Delivering
Adaptation
Actions
1. Accept, spread or
share loss
e.g. Insurance
2. Avoid or minimise
negative impacts
e.g. standards
3. Create supportive
organisational
structure
e.g. partnerships
3. Exploit positive
opportunities
e.g. introduce
new activity
For example:
Strategic solution
Temporary
arrangement
Separate hazard
from receptor
Technical fix
Change working
practice
System for quick
recovery
Actions for others
And finally – important to remember!
Support is available
• Use the skills and knowledge in your organisation
• Use your professional bodies and networks
• Use the experience within your sector
• Use the resources within your region
• Use the expertise of researchers and consultancies
• Use national tools and resources – e.g. Defra, Met Office, UKCIP
Thank you!
[email protected]
www.ukcip.org.uk