Transcript Climate Change

Climate Change –
Defra’s Strategy &
Priorities
Dr Steven Hill
Department for Environment Food and Rural
Affairs
22nd May 2007
FLOODING DESTRUCTION AT
INVERNESS
Summary
• Climate change and stratospheric ozone programme
• Policy needs/key questions
• Programme details
• Other research to support climate change policy
• Sustainable agriculture
• Natural resources and biodiversity
• ‘Living with Environmental Change’
• Conclusions
Policy needs for science (all aspects)
• Impartial and timely information and
understanding about a problem
• Impartial information about solutions
• Advice about implications of scientific results
• Data (observations or monitoring)
• As a policy itself
• As a negotiating tool – place at the table
• Authority and integrity
• Communication – convincing others
Some Key Questions - Global
• What influence has human activity had on the climate
and how will it change in the future, globally and
regionally?
• What are the related impacts? Can we adapt to
these?
• What level of climate change would be considered to
be dangerous?
• What scale /speed of mitigation is required to avoid
dangerous climate change?
• How can the world achieve such a level?
• What form should future international agreements
take?
• What role should other countries play?
Some Key Questions - Domestic
What is an appropriate UK contribution to
emission reductions?
• What are the UK’s emissions now and in the
future?
• What is the potential for land use change to
absorb CO2?
• What options do we have to reduce
emissions in the most cost effective manner?
• How can we adapt to climate change?
Scientific basis for advice
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International assessments – IPCC
Defra funded research
UK science base
Ad hoc seminars and workshops
Current literature
International programmes / meetings
Key providers of information used by Defra
for CC information
• Hadley Centre – links to wider science community
• UKCIP – focus for impacts
• Research Council institutes (eg Tyndall Centre, BAS,
CEH, ERC etc)
• Universities (eg Reading, Oxford, Cambridge)
• Public bodies (eg CEFAS, EA)
• Private Institutes (AEA Technology, Royal Society)
• Consultancies
• Industry
• EU (CION, EEA)
• International Bodies (eg WCRP)
• UN Agencies and including IPCC
CESA Research Programme Components
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International negotiations on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
UK Domestic programme on Mitigation
UK Domestic programme on Adaptation
Bilateral programmes on Climate Change
Underpinning science
Underpinning observations
Stratospheric Ozone
Organisational issues and cooperation with
others
10 Resources
Provisional allocation of research resources
2007/8
Policy area
£k, 2007/8
Climate Change Negotiations
250
IPCC
569
Domestic mitigation
1139
Domestic adaptation
971
Bilateral programmes (China & India)
431
CCP at Hadley Centre
13200
Underpinning observations
1186
Stratospheric Ozone
Other organisational issues, data
distribution, energy efficiency
Scoping study for stabilisation programme
Total Allocation
288
2016
150
20,200
Cross Cutting Stabilisation Project in
support of Future Action Agenda
1. For different levels of climate change what are the
key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for
the world as a whole?
2. What would such levels of climate change imply in
terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations
and emission pathways required to achieve such
levels?
3. What options are there for achieving stabilisation of
greenhouse
gases
at
different
stabilisation
concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into account
costs and uncertainties?
Adaptation
• Major developments here – Adaptation Policy
Framework
• UKCIP Climate Scenarios 2008
• Decision making tools and risk analysis
framework
• Reducing uncertainty at regional level
UKCIP Scenarios
• UKCIP02
All UK, 50km resolution
• BIC Scenarios
British-Irish Council
25 km resolution
• UKCIP08
All UK, 25km resolution
Mitigation
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Architecture for international agreements
Estimating costs of action/inaction
Technical potential for emission reductions
Environmental imperatives
Other relevant research programmes
• Sustainable agriculture
• Biodiversity and conservation
Sustainable agriculture
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Agriculture and climate chain programme
Water quality and use
Food chain meeting consumer needs
Sustainable farming systems and biodiversity
Plant health
Agriculture and Climate Change
• Inventories of emissions of
pollution gases from agriculture
to air
• Mitigation of nitrogen and
carbon emissions
• Climate change and adaptation
in agriculture
• Energy in agriculture and food
• Bioenergy
• Renewable Materials
Overview of scientific evidence needs
for Defra policy on biodiversity
• Current status and trends in biodiversity
• Understanding reasons for decline/unfavourable
condition, assessing vulnerability and identifying
effective remedial measures and strategies
• Understanding and measuring the value of
biodiversity and ecosystem services
• Assessing the outcomes of policy
• Innovation to improve decision making and delivery
Living with Environmental Change
• Interdisciplinary research partnership
(Research Councils, Government
Departments and others)
• Addressing ‘Treasury Challenge 5’
Increasing pressures on natural resources and global climate from
rapid economic and population growth in the developing world and
sustained demand for fossil fuels in advanced economies
• Focus on prediction (regional and decadal
scales) and evaluation of response options
• Integration of social and natural sciences
Conclusions
• Defra funds a major research programme on
understanding, mitigating and adapting to
climate change
• Climate change as an issue is a key driver
across a range of Defra research
programmes
• The ‘Living with Environmental Change’
initiative represents a major opportunity to
drive forward the research agenda in a
framework grounded in policy needs