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Policies for Mitigating Climate Change Workshop on Asian Climate Change and Variability 22 July 2011 Dilip R. Ahuja National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore Sequence of Presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Analogy between Public Health and Climate Change Complementarity between Mitigation and Adaptation Types of Mitigation Options Types of Policy Instruments Available What features make it a difficult problem to address? Concluding Remarks Public Health & Climate Change: Analogy Public Health Climate Change Etiology Causes (external, self-inflicted or iatrogenic) (Natural or Anthropogenic) Susceptibility Vulnerability Prevention Mitigation Treatment / Managing a Chronic Condition Adaptation Adaptation and Mitigation can be complementary, substitutable or independent of each other Four Broad Sets of Mitigation Options, each intervening at a later stage 1. Reduce Consumption by life style changes or demand side measures; 2. Reduce Emissions by alternate ways of generating electricity or producing liquid fuels; (largely renewable energy options) 3. End-of-pipe removal of greenhouse gases and long-term sequestration; 4. Global geo-engineering schemes (in case the first three are inadequate) Announced Recent Targets 1. GOI Voluntary Commitment: Reduce Energy Intensity of the Indian Economy by 2025% by 2020; plus targets in National Missions 2. IPCC Special Report on Renewables: Median Contributions of Renewables could increase from 13% of Primary Energy Supply in 2008 to 17% in 2030 to 27% in 2050. 3. Global Energy Assessment (Vienna Energy Forum): By 2030, Ensure universal access to modern energy services, Increase energy efficiency by reducing energy intensity by 40%, Increase share of Renewables to 30%. Half of the National Missions in India’s Climate Action Plan deal with Mitigation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Solar Energy Enhanced Energy Efficiency (Industrial) Sustainable Habitat (Urban) o Energy Efficiency (Residential and Commercial) o Municipal Solid Wastes o Public Transport Water Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem Green India Sustainable Agriculture, and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change Proposed Geo-Engineering Solutions 1. 2. 3. 4. Fertilizing Southern Oceans with Iron Filings (Woods Hole) Pumping Compressed CO2 to ocean depths (Takashi Ohsumi) Releasing reflective metallic particles in the upper atmosphere to reduce in-coming sun-light (Teller) Releasing sulphate aerosols in the upper atmosphere (Crutzen) Problems with geo-engineering solutions 1. 2. 3. 4. Using poorly understood large experiments to undo the effects of an on-going poorly understood large experiment; Address only some adverse effects (such as warming) but not others (such as ocean acidification). Absence of any global body to approve or regulate such experiments; international agreements unlikely. IPCC conclusion: They remain largely speculative, unproven, with the risk of unproven side-effects, and with no published reliable cost estimates. Types of Policy Instruments 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Research and Development Subsidies and Incentives Voluntary Agreements Tradable Permits Taxes and Charges Regulations and Standards Information Instruments Why is it such a difficult problem to address? 1. Humankind has evolved to perceive and respond to immediate threats; we are not so pro-active at responding to slowly unfolding threats. 2. “Stock” problem rather than a “flow” problem, concentrations cumulative result of past emissions; 3. Truly a global problem requiring a global solution (free riders and victims); 4. Changing perception of developing countries from aid recipients to competitors; 5. Involves trade-offs within and across generations, and across species; 6. Asymmetry in distribution of costs incurred in the present and benefits being in future poses difficulties for public officials tuned to single election cycles; 7. Democratically elected governments are held accountable for economic performance but not for adverse climatic impacts; 8. Our public structures require a proof of need before they feel empowered to act. They can not respond to unsubstantiated warnings (based on probabilities); 9. A rich and influential lobby benefits from status quo and opposes action. Characterization of the Debate as a Wrestling Match “Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it's a tagteam match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Rightwing Ideologues.” Al Gore Climate of Denial Rolling Stone, June 22, 2011 Both Sides Invoke Reason “For every problematic statistic a theoretically rational reply can be made with a reassuring statistic.” John Ralston Saul, 2004 On Equilibrium Four Walls and Eight Windows, New York Comparison with Ozone Depletion Ozone Depletion Climate Change Smoking Gun, Ozone hole over the Antarctic No one clinching evidence Few Chemicals involved; substitutes available Ubiquitous; involves changes in the broader economy Small Incremental Costs and Different Times Substantial costs involved, world is different today than in the late eighties Concluding Remarks • It seems to me to be an intractable problem • What options do we have? Thank You for your attention