Transcript Climate change and how we relate to it: The role of research

Climate change and how we
relate to it: The role of research
Gunnar S. Eskeland, October 5th, 2004
The socalled precautionary principle
• True: keep distance to cliff’s edge (in particular if canyon is
steep, deep).
• But: there is also ’too safe’ – in principle
• More importantly, as you climb a ridge, a foggy morning: at
which side is danger nearest?
Climate policy – a dynamic game
• Learn whether climate change is costly or cheap
• Learn whether mitigation is costly or cheap
Climate change is
The dynamic game with
nature: Plan for the
unexpected
Costly
Mitigation
is
Cheap and
effective
Insignificant
or cheap
Real and
costly
Mitigation is a
mistake
(not important)
(not important)
Case for
mitigation