Transcript Methodologies, Technical Resources and Guidelines

Methodologies, Technical
Resources and Guidelines
for Mitigation
Festus LUBOYERA and Dominique REVET
Programme Officers
UNFCCC secretariat
([email protected] and [email protected])
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(1) Contents
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Deciding on the Methodological
Approaches for mitigation analysis
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Steps to follow
Structure of the analysis
Technical Resources and Guidelines
(*) Almost all Parties included information on “programmes
containing measures” that could contribute to addressing
climate change. Furthermore, they also provided information on
methodologies, scenarios, models and criteria used for the
assessment.
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(2) Deciding on the Methodological
Approaches for Mitigation
Analysis
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Decide on the methodological approach to be
adopted for the analysis
 “Bottom-up” or “Top-down” – check
suitability, strengths and weaknesses
Select the analytical tool/model to be used
Consider the requirements of the analysis such as:
importance of the sector considered, data
availability, skills required/available, etc.
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(2) Deciding on the Methodological
Approaches for Mitigation Analysis
(Cont.)
 Analytical structure of the Analysis
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Evaluation of national social and economic
development framework for climate change
mitigation (Slide 3)
Baseline scenario projection – no policies in place on
GHG reduction (Slide 4)
Mitigation scenarios projections – taking into
consideration the baseline scenarios (Slide 5)
Macroeconomic assessment (Slide 6)
Implementation issues (Slide 7)
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(3) Evaluation of national social and
economic development framework
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Comprehensive description of national framework for
CC mitigation including: base year statistics on GDP
structure, social conditions, energy balance, aggregate
GHG inventory, major land use activities, population, etc.
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Evaluation of main national economic and social national
development trends and the GHG emissions that are
expected to occur as a result of economic development
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Overview of mitigation reports together with other
climate change studies including impact, adaptation,
GHG inventories
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(4) Baseline scenario projection
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Select/develop modeling approach
Choose base year and time horizon
Define baseline scenario – baseline
economic and demographic trends and
assumptions
Examine trends in energy
consumption, production, technology,
fuel prices land use change and forestry
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(5) Mitigation scenarios projections
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Identification of mitigation options related to the
most important future sources and sinks of
GHGs
Screening of mitigation options
Assessment of reduction potential and the
related cost of mitigation scenarios
Integration of GHG reductions and costs across
measures and sectors, through construction of
GHG mitigation marginal cost curves
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Sample Format for the Reporting of Mitigation Options
Mitigation Option 1
Mitigation Option 2
Mitigation Option n
100,000
150,000
20,000
3.5
2.0
3.3
40
30
40
120
80
110
300,000
100,000
Uncertain
Low
High
Medium
Low
Uncertain
None
-150
-30
No effect
-200
None
Reduction
-75
-50
Uncertain
Potential impact of implementation policies
Low
Medium
High
Sustainability of option
High
Uncertain
Medium
Consistency with national development goals
High
Low
Medium
Uncertainty of data
- Technology performance and costs
- Costs of implementation programs
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Criteria
GHG saving or storage (tCeq)
- Carbon (tC)
- Methane (tCeq)
- Other gases (tCeq)
Life-cycle-cost (currency/tCeq)
Capital investment (currency/tCeq)
Net costs (currency/tCeq)
Indirect economic impacts
- Jobs created (#)
- Reduced imports (US$)
Equity considerations, impacts on
- Low-income jobs
-
Low-income monthly expenditure
National environmental impacts (net change)
- Sulfur oxides (tonnes)
- Particulates (tonnes)
- Biodiversity
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(6) Macroeconomic assessment
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Qualitative description of main macroeconomic
impacts of national climate change mitigation
strategies
Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters
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(7) Implementation issues
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Identification of main implementation
requirements including financial support,
technologies, institutional capacity building,
regulation policies and further improvements of
the national decision framework
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(8) Some Technical Tools
Examples of “Bottom–up” models
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COMAP (COmprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process for
forestry): spreadsheet model
COPATH (Carbon Pasture Agriculture Total Harvesting):
spreadsheet model for the estimation of carbon flows associated
with forest use
ETO (Energy Technology Optimization): optimization model which
compares energy supply sources to identify the lowest cost option
EM (Environmental Manual for power development): tool for the
inclusion of environmental and cost data into decision-making for
energy projects, especially in developing countries
GACMO (Greenhouse GAs Costing MOdel): a spreadsheet
module for project-based mitigation analysis
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(8) Some Technical Tools (Cont.)
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LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system):
end-use accounting modeling system for energy
STAIR (Services, Transport, Agriculture, Industry and
Residential energy model): accounting model for long-term
mitigation scenarios
Examples of “Top-down” models
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MARKAL-MACRO (MARKet ALlocation MACRO-economic
model): an energy-economy-environment optimization model
(combined bottom-up and top-down approaches)
ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program): iterative
equilibrium model for the energy system (partial bottom-up
characteristics)
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Examples of Analytical Tools Available for Mitigation Assessments
Topic
Energy Sector
Accounting Models
Optimization Models
Iterative Equilibrium Model
Decision Analysis Framework
Non-Energy Sectors
Forestry
Agriculture
Rangelands
Waste Management
Analytical Tools
LEAP, STAIR
MARKAL, ETO
ENPEP
Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP)
COPATH, COMAP
EPIC, CENTURY
CENTURY
Landfill Gas Model
Energy-Economy Interaction LBL-CGE,
MARKAL-MACRO
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(9) Selecting a Model
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The model should be simple enough (i.e.: not
hinder analysis process)
Simple spreadsheets can be constructed for a
specific analytical purpose
Complex models should be supported by
training
Output of the model should be useful to the
stakeholders (especially for national planning).
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Key Design Features of Selected Sector Models
Model Characteristics
STAIR
LEAP
ETO
MARKAL
MARKALMACRO
ENPEP
LBL-CGE
Model Type
Energy
Accounting
Energy
Accounting
Engineering
Optimization
Engineering
Optimization
Iterative
Equilibrium
Hybrid
“TopDown”
Number of Non-Energy Sectors
0
0
0
0
–
1
2+
Energy Supply Representation
Process
Analysis
Process
Analysis
Process
Analysis
Process
Analysis
Supply
Curves
Process
Analysis
Supply
Curve
Energy Demand Representation
Exogenous
Exogenous
Exogenous
Exogenous
Exogenous
Utility
Maximization
Demand
Function
Multi-Period
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Not
Applicable
Not Applicable Perfect or
Myopic
Myopic
Perfect or
Myopic
Myopic
Consumer/Producer Foresight
Not
Applicable
Accounting
Accounting
Linear
Programming
Iteration
Non-Linear
Optimiz.
Iteration
Solution Algorithm
Linear
Programming
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(10) Some Useful Technical Resources
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IPCC Technical Paper I - Technologies, Policies and
Measures for Mitigating Climate Change
IPCC 3rd Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001:
Working Group III: Mitigation
UNEP/RISO: Economics of GHG Limitations
GHG Mitigation Assessment : A Guidebook (US Country
Studies Program
(*) The CD-Rom of this workshop contains a number of guidelines
as well as software such as LEAP and COMAP together with
their manuals and some training exercises in various languages.
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(11) For more Information
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EM:
http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/em/model/em_mo
del
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LEAP: http://forums.seib.org/leap/
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COMAP: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/IES/iespubs/3163.pdf
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ENPEP: http://enpep.dis.anl.gov/mosaic/enep
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MARKAL: http://www.ecn.nl/unit_bs/etsap/markal
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