Transcript BMF workshop - Marine Climate Change Impacts

BMF workshop presentation:
An overview of the adaptation process and resources
that can help you to adapt
Paul Buckley and Julian Wright
Introduction to MCCIP
Set up in 2005 to transfer science to decision makers
25 organisations, mostly across UK and devolved
governments, agencies, science organisations and NGOs
Work with 100+ scientists to produce authoritative reports
Includes ports / shipping; marine recreation and tourism
New adaptation work to bridge gap between climate impacts
knowledge and capacity of organisations to respond
Work closely with EA climate ready
Introduction to Climate Ready
In October 2011, Environment Agency took over the role of
providing advice and support to businesses and public
sector organisations in England to help them adapt to a
changing climate: Climate Ready
Climate Ready provides:
Core information (generic advice and support)
Theme-specific support for 7 themes
Aim to work with and through others to embed
adaptation
Why does climate change matter?
The BMF states that the...
“...future of the recreational boating industry really does rely on the
quality of the natural environment to retain and encourage people
to take part in all water based recreational activities”
Climate change will affect the quality of the natural environment and BMF would like to
ensure that its members are fully aware of the issues.
Whilst climate change is unlikely to be your main business driver, when combined with other
economic and social drivers it could be an increasingly important issue.
We want to help you take a balanced, pragmatic view of climate change impacts,
exposing issues you may not have considered and alleviating concerns in others.
Focus here on adapting to climate change impacts, rather than reducing emissions
A few reasons why people in the industry care
Workshop outline
Climate change and its implications for
business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
Our role...is to help you consider climate change risks and opportunities, both
to expose issues and alleviate concerns in other areas.
Ultimately up to you as managers to take ownership of issues as you see fit
Climate change and its implications for
business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
Global temperatures are rising…
Year
Changes are set to continue…
Hot 2003 European summer: human activities have doubled the risk
This type of summer could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s
European
summer
temperatures
observations
Medium-High emissions (modelled)
Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
Change in temperature of the hottest day
2020s
+4.5ºC
2050s
+7.2ºC
2080s
+9.5ºC
East Midlands
90% probability level
Medium emissions
Change in average summer and winter rainfall
Medium emissions by 2050s
Summer
Winter
Intense winter rainfall
2020s
+6%
Increased winter flooding
Risks to urban drainage
2050s
+13%
Severe transport link
disruption
2080s
Risks to Infrastructure
+16%
But the wettest day of the
year could see up to 31%
more rainfall in the North
North West
central estimate
Medium Emissions
14
Change in average sea surface temperature
Seasonal increase in degrees C from present to 2080s – Medium emission
Less directly relevant than warmer air temperatures
BUT
Could improve conditions for non-native nuisance species
such as sea squirts spoiling built structures
© UKCIP 2011
Sea
level
Sea
levelrise
rise
2040
Weston-super-Mare:
Newlyn:
Poole:
18cm
20cm
18cm
Changes are
relative to
1961-90
Increased coastal
flooding
2080
Weston-super-Mare:
Newlyn:
Poole:
Increased coastal
erosion
37cm
40cm
37cm
Risk to infrastructure
But, also modelled more extreme scenarios that
give rises of up to 6ft (1.9 metres) by the end of
the century (High++ scenario) (London)
16
Summary of expected climate changes in the UK
Hotter, drier summers
Increase in heatwaves / hot days
Warmer, wetter winters
More heavy rain events
Other marine / coastal variables
Sea level rise 10s of cm in coming
decades
Largest sea temperature increase in
autumn in SE
Storms more uncertain but could be
fewer more severe storms
What are the potential impacts for business in general...
Increased/decreased productivity
Changing markets/demand for service
Effects on reputation
Disruption/loss of business continuity
Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs
Health and safety concerns
Increased / decreased sales
31% of UK companies significantly affected by weather in the past year
(Ipsos MORI, 2010)
How is weather already affecting this industry
Recent windstorms / surge events in the UK and Europe have...
• Damaged / destroyed equipment (cables, access bridges, pontoons)
• Led to increased insurance claims at some sites (and premiums...)
• Piled yachts up against each other
• Cut off access to boats
• Breached sea defences leading to damage through inundation
• Damaged reputation through reduced customer confidence
Future climate change impacts on the industry
Increased participation in marine leisure activities
Added pressure to infrastructure from more use
Increased risk of collisions / congestion
Non-natives fouling structures / boats
Droughts = water restrictions / more hosepipe bans
Warmer, drier summers
Dredging / fill required for sites and navigation
Changes in sediment supply
Future climate change impacts on the industry
Events
Impacts
Vulnerability of site and access due to flooding
Risk of overtopping quays / defences with surges
Sea Level Rise
Closures from high tides / heavy rain
Damage / disruption = higher insurance premiums
Wave height increase affecting safety
Damage to boats stored out of season with winter
storms
Storms / Heavy rain
Adaptation can alter the chain of events
Hotter, drier
summers
Heat waves
Droughts
Milder, wetter
winters
Heavy rain
Cold snaps
Greater
proportion of rain
in heavy
downpours
Rising sea level
Storms
Consequences for society (travel disruption)
Events
Physical impacts (flooding)
Trends
Negative
consequences
for businesses
Disruption
Insurance
Costs
H&S
Reputation
Positive
opportunities
Reputation
Market leader
New products
and services
Examples of adaptation in ports and marinas
Working with UKCIP, Felixstowe Port pre-empted legal
obligations and undertook a climate risk assessment in 2008,
which identified capacity building actions. This resulted in:
The incorporation of climate risk into flood management and
business continuity plans
Further examination of the current high wind thresholds
and wind agreement (key threat)
Maintaining a watching brief on the latest information on
climate change of relevance to the port
Brighton Marina commissioned HR Wallingford to model
impacts of waves and water level on their sea defences.
This identified future options to reduce the threats to their
breakwaters over the next 120 years.
Climate change and its implications for
business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
The adaptation process
Based on UKCIP adaptation wizard
Step 1: Scope, objectives, outcomes
Working session 1 (20 mins)
Why are you concerned about adapting to climate change?
(motivation; drivers; incentives)
What do you want to achieve by working through this process?
What is the scope and scale of your assessment?
What are your timescales of interest?
Who needs to be involved?
What difficulties might you face and how might these be overcome?
Discuss collectively and capture outputs
Outcomes: An idea of what you want to achieve and what resources will be required.
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
How have your sites been affected by past weather events?
Weather
type
Impact
Consider
one
weather
type per
row such
as
heavy rain,
heatwave,
storm
cold snap
High winds
High tide
e.g. flooding
of local area
or premises,
damage to
property,
restricted
access to site,
disruption to
supply chain,
etc.
Business consequences
This is the most important
column as it identifies the
consequences you are trying to
avoid/promote
e.g. repair/ replace/ maintenance/
insurance costs, lost/ gained
customers, lost/ gained sales, H&S
issues, affect on reputation or
declining/ increasing productivity
Trigger point? Response
Adequate? Source
e.g. staff worked
extra hours, people
worked from home,
ie. the point
alternative premises
above which an
used.
impact occurs
Afterwards: advice
sought, suppliers
e.g. a
changed, BCM
windspeed,
initiated or improved,
rainfall intensity
procedures reviewed,
or temperature
vulnerable equipment
or the duration
moved, building
of a disruption
made more resilient,
investment in flood
resistent technologies
e.g.
company
records, a
colleague
Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and
details of critical thresholds.
Source: SpeedBACLIAT
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
How have your sites been affected by recent weather events?
Weather
Type
Impact
Business consequences
Damage boats
Winter
in storage
Repair costs / insurance claims
rainstorms
Increased
Heatwave
participation
Storms /
high winds/
High tide
Overtopping
Increased revenue
Site flooding / boats damaged
Trigger point? Response
Rainfall
Move where boats
intensity/ high
stored
winds
Length of hot
spell
Storm / high
tide combined
Took on more
temporary staff
Adequate? Source
In short
term
Yes
In short
Reviewed insurance
term
cover
A colleague
Records
Records
Cold
snaps?
Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and
details of critical thresholds.
Source: SpeedBACLIAT
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
Working session 2 (30 mins)
Complete flip charts in groups
Share a few examples of consequences of
specific events
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment
Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:
Premises: Impacts on building design, construction and maintenance and
facilities management
People: Implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles
Process: Impacts on production process and service delivery
Logistics: Vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport arrangements
Markets: Changing demand for goods and services
Finance: Implications for investment, insurance and reputation
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment
Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:
Premises: Will buildings need to be adapted to avoid future flood risks?
People: Will seasonal employment and customer use of facilities change?
Process: How will service delivery need to change in the future?
Logistics: Are there considerations for how boats are moored in [and stored out
of] season?
Markets: Could we see an increase in demand with better summers?
Finance: Will insurance premiums go up in the future due to climate risks?
Outcomes: A list of priority climate change impacts.
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Working session 3 (40 mins)
Break into groups
Brainstorm potential impacts for the business areas
most relevant to your organisation
(past things more frequent / new issues)
Consider THREATS and OPPORTUNITIES
No answers are wrong: think creatively and record all
answers.
Think practically and think about longevity of sites
Consider direct and indirect impacts (e.g. not directly
at site – transport links / supply)
Climate change and its implications for
business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
From potential future impacts to risks
15 mins
Conduct an exercise to identify key impacts
Is there consensus?
Key considerations to prioritise:
How soon
How likely
Consequences / cost
How long will it take to start adapting
WHY is this risk significant?
Identifying adaptation actions
30 mins
What actions could you take to enhance the resilience
of your site? Temporary or permanent?
Think about past experiences to draw on and be
practical, think about how your business works
Explore technical, operational, strategic options
Would changes benefit business anyway?
Outcomes: An adaptation plan for your top 3 issues
Implementing adaptations: things to consider
How can the preferred adaptations best be implemented;
What resources (staff, facilities, capital) will be required to
implement the adaptations and monitor their effectiveness;
Who will “own” management of these risks
What institutional and community support will be required;
What barriers exist to adaptation and how might these be
overcome;
How will the performance of the strategy, and actions
within it, be monitored and reviewed.
Contact
Contact details
[email protected]
Tel: +44(0)1502 524314
www.mccip.org.uk