Transcript PPT 1.6 - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYof FISHERMEN of the
URUGUAYAN COAST of the RIO de la PLATA,
to HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILTY and OTHER STRESSORS
Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva and J Verocai
DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGIA - OCEANOLOGIA
Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay
THIS PRESENTATION AIMS TO DESCRIBE
1: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
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


ESTUARINE FRONT (EF)
ENSO-RELATED VARIABILITY
FISHERIES RESOURCE
ARTISANAL FISHERIES WITHIN THE E.F.
2: THE
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

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
CURRENT VULNERABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY
OF THE COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM
ESTUARINE FRONT
OF THE RIO DE LA PLATA
THE PROBLEM
 An artisanal fleet exploits fisheries a few miles off the
Uruguayan coast (in the estuarine front zone (EF) of the Río
de la Plata (FIG. 1)
 The location of the EF (therefore the accesibility of exploited
resources) depends on ENSO-related variability of the river flow
 Artisanal fishermen are highly vulnerable to both climate and
non-climate constraints (regional economic crisis since 2001)
 Coastal community has low adaptive capacity
Figure 1. Estuarine Front location
a)
b)
c)
d)
Strong La Niña event (summer 99-2000)
Neutral - Typical
Moderate El Niño (winter 1987)
Strong El Niño (Spring / Summer 2002 – 2003)
ROU
K
iyú
P
. B
lancas
a
a
RA
b
c
S
an Luis
d
Evolution of SST & Salinty at Montevideo:
ENSO events1998-2000
20
28
16
Salinity
River Flow
21
12
8
14
7
0
4
0
4
8
12
River Flow (m3/s x1000)
0
0
2
4
6
Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
El NIÑO 3,4 (+1.8)
16
Extreme river-ward location of the EF (yellow): La Niña event
(March 2000)
Seaward location of the EF (yellow):
El Niño (October 2002)
CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE
VULNERABILITY: SOCIAL
VULNERABILITY
PROXY
VARIABLES
HIGH
FAMILY
EDUCATION
HOUSING
EMPLOYMENT
HEALTH
SOCIAL ORGANIZATI0N
X
MODERATE
X
X
X
X
X
LOW
CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE
VULNERABILITY: ECONOMIC
PROXY
VARIABLES
BOATS
ENGINES
FISHING GEARS
COMMUNICATION
REFRIGERATION
CATCH
PRICES
NET INCOME
HIGH
VULNERABILITY
MODERATE
LOW
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE
VULNERABILITY: ENVIRONMENTAL
VULNERABILITY
PROXY
VARIABLES
HIGH
CLIMATE-ENSO
WINDS
STORM SURGES
AND
FLOODING RISK
EUTROPHICATION
HABITAT LOSS
MODERATE
LOW
X
X
X
X
X
CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE
VULNERABILITY: LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL
PROXY
VARIABLES
LAWS
TERRITORIAL PLANNING
COAST GUARD CONTROLS
CONFLICTS WITH
INDUSTRIAL FLEET
CONFLICTS WITH
NEIGHBOURS
LEGAL ORGANIZATION
VULNERABILITY
HIGH
MODERATE LOW
X
X
X
X
X
X
ANATOMY of the ADAPTATION to CLIMATE
CHANGE & VARIABILITY
1. WHAT IS ADAPTATION ?
2. ADAPT TO WHAT ?
3. WHO ADAPTS ?
4. HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ?
5. HOW GOOD IS THE ADAPTATION ?
1) WHAT IS ADAPTATION ?
Process by which stakeholders involved in the Coastal
Fishery System reduce the adverse effects of climate on their
livelihood.
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This Process involves any passive, reactive or anticipatory
adjustment of behavior and economic structure in order to
increase sustainability and reduce vulnerability to climate
change, variability and weather / climate extremes.
(modified from Burton,1992; Smit, 1993; Smith, 1993; Stakhiv, 1993)
2) ADAPT TO WHAT ?
CLIMATIC STIMULI: ENS0 VARIABILITY
3) WHO ADAPTS ?
COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM
4) HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ?
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THROUGH PROCESSES:
•
EXTERNAL FORCINGS (RIVER FLOW CHANGES) AND
DISPLACEMENT OF THE ESTUARINE FRONT
VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF MAIN RESOURCE (CROAKER)>FISHERMEN MIGRATION
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OUTCOME:
THIS EXAMPLE OF AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION
HAS BEING SUCCESFUL UNTIL 2002
5) HOW GOOD IS ADAPTATION ?
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COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Long-term Fishermen Gross Income (from October (1) to
September (12)
1600000
Gross Income
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Min Average
Daily fishing sorties
Average weight of boxes (1 = 23 Kg)
Fishing period 1998-99
Max Average
boxes
57
60
50
40
32
36
31
35
39
40
30
20
19
10
0
Clusters
Catch level max fishing period 98-99
Pajas Blancas´ Fishing Scenarios
Catch level low fishing period 98-99
Fleet = 30 boats
Fishing period = 4 months (rows 1,2,3); 3 months (4,5,6) ; 2 months
(7,8,9)
Days of effective fishing: ( 17 day/month (1,4,7); 12 d/m (2,5,8); 8
d/m (3,6,9)
Performance
Boxes/performance
high
moderate
low
% boats
46 boxes/day
38 boxes/day
26 boxes/day
# boats
23
59
18
6.9
17.7
5.4
Scenarios, boat productivity, fishing period and days
1800
1600
tons
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL)
OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET
BOXES
MODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE
CATCH 20 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT
25000
15000
10000
5000
0
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
Boxes
20000
Number of fishing sorties (days)
Obs
Model
TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL)
OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET
BOXES
MODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE
CATCH 25 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT
25000
Boxes
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
Number of fishing sorties (days)
Obs
Model
Sc 1 - 31 average boxes with 15 boats
Sc 2 – Fishing period 98-99
“Pajas Blancas” Fishing Scenarios
Sc 3 - 40 average boxes with 31 boats
Sc 1
Log IB
boxes
Sc 2
Sc 3
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
7
13
19
25 31 37
Sortied days
43
49
55
61
Evolution of Salinty: El Niño 2002
30
25
frequency of occurrence
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
3
2
1
9
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
12
12
11
11
wind unfavourable situations
10
12
11
10
wind favourable situations
10
0
non-fishing trip days
20
15
10
5
wind favourable situations
wind unfavourable situations
non-fishing trip days
3
2
1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
12
11
10
0
9
frequency of occurrence
35
CONCLUSIONS
about
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
ENSO EVENTS ARE RECURRENT AND ONCE SST ANOMALIES
ARE KNOWN, ADAPTATION MEASURES SHOULD START
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EARLY WARNING IS POSIBLE A FEW MONTHS BEFORE
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PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES INVOLVING SCIENTISTS,
MANAGERS AND FISHERMEN PARTICIPATION ARE NEEDED
TO ALLOW ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

DIALOG AND COMMUNICATION NEED TO BE ENHANCED