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Business & Tourism Sectoral Adaptation Plan
Workshop
Cardiff
18 May 2015
Climate Change Commission for Wales
Brings together key sectors and organisations across Wales to build
agreement on the action needed to tackle the challenges of climate
change in Wales.
• Providing advice
• Mobilising Action
• Building consensus
Climate Change Commission for Wales
• Climate Change Commissioner appointed by Welsh Government
• CCCW members provide input voluntarily
• Cynnal Cymru provide secretariat
• Currently three sub-groups – Adaptation; Transport; Land Use
Welsh Government Climate Change Strategy
Sectoral Adaptation Plans:
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Health
Natural Environment
Infrastructure
Communities
Business & Tourism
Today’s Workshop – Objective
“To ensure that you are brought up to date on progress
with climate adaptation, and are able to plan the
necessary actions”
Today’s Workshop: Coverage
• Impact of climate change on business
• Identifying risks and opportunities for your business, using the BACLIAT
tool
• Viewpoints and experience from PWC and CBI
• Sources of data and support
• Action planning – and identifying barriers to taking action
• Building the Business Case, using IEMA Guidance
Impact of Climate Change on Business
Jim Poole
Flooding in Wales
Talybont Ceredigion Aug 2012
Talybont Ceredigion Aug 2012
St Asaph Nov 2012
Mid Wales Jun 2012
Storms in January 2014
Aberystwyth
Aberystwyth
Paul Callan
Amroth
Athena Picture Agency
Porthcawl
Rhyl December 2013
UKCP09 Projections for Wales
• More intense rainfall events
• More flooding of low-lying coastal areas
• Hotter, drier summers
• More extremely warm days
• Milder, wetter winters
• Less snowfall and frost
• Lower groundwater levels
St Mellons December 2010
St Mellons December 2010
Met Office Report March 2014
Confirms UKCP09 for
underlying trends, but
adds:
“New analysis suggests
that we should also plan
to be resilient to wet
summers and to cold
winters throughout this
century”
Average Temperatures during December in UK
As a first step, how well (or
otherwise) we dealt with previous
extreme events provides lessons on
how we should adapt in the future
Summer Temperatures over Europe
For the longer term we must
monitor climate-related trends and
events, work out where we are
heading and give ourselves time to
adapt accordingly
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012
Business, Industry and Services
Opportunity:
• Expansion of tourism
Threats:
• Insurance exposure to flood risks
• Loss of staff time due to overheating buildings
• Mortgages threatened due to increased flood risk
• Tourism assets at risk of flooding
• Restrictions in water abstraction for industry
• Business disruption due to flooding
• Climate risks to investment funds
• Loss of productivity due to ICT disruption
• Supply chain disruption
EA Climate Ready – Impact of Severe Weather on Business
• 260,000 business units, employing 3.2 million people, currently vulnerable
to flooding from rivers or the sea
• Total economic damage of 2012 floods estimated at £620 million
• 49% of managers report that severe weather conditions caused disruption
to their organisation over the last year – the most common cause of
disruption for the third year running (CMI, 2012)
• 64% of businesses have suffered supply chain disruption due to extreme
weather conditions (Zurich)
• 70% of businesses believe that climate change has the potential to affect
their revenue significantly (CDP)
EA Climate Ready – Opportunities for Business
• > 60% of businesses surveyed by UK TI considered climate change to be a
commercial opportunity
• UK sales in the “Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate” sector
in 2011/12 were £2.1 billion – growth of 0.9%
• UK exports in this sector were valued at £266 million in 2011/12, an
increase of 3.7% on 2010/11
EA Climate Ready – Survey of 1,200 FSB Members
• 60% did not have a plan in place to deal with severe weather
• 66% have suffered as a result of flooding, drought or snow in the last
three years
• 29% did not have insurance for business interruption (loss of income,
costs incurred) or for damage caused to property by flooding
EA Climate Ready – Key Messages for Business
• Businesses are counting the cost of today’s severe weather
• Flooding, droughts and heat-waves will be more common – not one off
events
• You can manage the costs of severe weather like any other business risk
• Planning now for the impacts of severe weather makes good business
sense
• If you are resilient to a changing climate you will be more attractive to
investors
• Take advantage of changing conditions. Keep trading during severe
weather. Retain customers – win new ones.
Impact of Climate Change on Business
BACLIAT Workshop
BACLIAT Workshop:
Business Areas Climate Impact Assessment Tool
BACLIAT Workshop – Objective
“To draw upon your knowledge to
brainstorm potential future impacts of
climate change on businesses and tourism
in Wales”
BACLIAT – Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool
A generic framework for considering climate
impacts on business areas:
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markets
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logistics
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process
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finance
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people
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premises
Climate change provides both threats and benefits
Markets
Changing demand for goods and services:
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tourism: Mediterranean is too hot, so visit UK
instead
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food & drink: summer preferences, al fresco
pavement cafes 24/7
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leisure: demand for parks, gardens, heritage
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building design: passive cooling, sustainable
construction
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technology: monitoring, flood protection, cooling
equipment, health products etc.
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global impacts on markets or supply chains
Logistics
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Disruption of supply chains arising from:
– transport disruption
– impacts on suppliers
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Just in time systems increase vulnerability
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Disruption to power or water supply
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For smaller companies, supply chains and
power supply represent a large proportion of
their exposure to the climate risk.
Summer 2005: BMW lost hours of production equating to 50 cars as a
result of delays to deliveries following riverine flooding
Process
Impacts on production processes and service delivery:
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some business processes, equipment, assets and
activities are temperature sensitive:
- food preparation and storage
- some industrial processes, such as waterless printing
- agriculture
- IT server room
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extreme events can cause damage or disruption
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climate change could reduce / increase production efficiencies
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extreme events will set new performance standards
People
Implications for employees and customers:
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poor or better working environment?
- external: construction, agriculture
- internal: offices in summer
- more complaints generally
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reputation as employer
- attract and retain high quality staff
Premises
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Impacts of wind, rain, storm, fire and
subsidence on building fabric and structure or
grounds
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Internal environment: less winter heating/
more summer cooling
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Design decisions based on historical climate
data likely to be inadequate
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Retrofitting existing buildings represents a
major challenge
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Sustainable construction needs to link climate
change adaptation and mitigation agendas
Finance
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Insurance issues: increased premiums; variable
premiums; vulnerable locations; uncertainty
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Investment issues: tests for future proofing of
investment, global impacts on international
investment
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Costs: impact on raw material prices; retrofitting
existing buildings and equipment could be
expensive
BACLIAT Workshop – Questions
For each business area:
• What are the opportunities and challenges that your organisation
will face in the future as a result of the changing climate?
• What things that have happened in the past could become more
frequent with climate change?
• Thinking more imaginatively, what new impacts could occur?