Transcript The Impacts of global Warming

Prof. Chan King Ming
Associate Professor
Dept. of Biochemistry and
Environmental Science Program
Chinese University
email: [email protected]
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CONTENTS:
1. Carbon Cycle and
Greenhouse Effect
2. The Impacts of Global
Warming
3. Kyoto Protocol
4. What can we do to help?
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1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_3_1.htm
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1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
Atmospheric CO2
Sinks (Carbon
Fixation) :
Sources:
1. Burning of fossil
fuels and
organic matters
1. Photosynthesis
2. Uptake by ocean
2. Respiration
Other forms of carbon
deposits, e.g. coral,
cellulose.
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碳的貯存和轉移
. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
1
5
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Major sources of
greenhouse gases:
burning of fossil fuels,
e.g. vehicle and power
plant emissions.
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1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
Carbon Dioxide Surge was created by human
activities since industrial revolution
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1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
Global Warming =
Rapid Increase of Global Surface Air Temperature
Caused by global carbon dioxide surge.
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4℃
–8℃
surge
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1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
Q What contributed to the heat
energy absorption in molecules
in the atmosphere?
Global Warming Potentials,
GWP, stability in atmosphere:
Carbon Dioxide = 1 (?)
Methane = 21 (12 year)
Nitrous Oxide = 310 (120 years)
CFC-11 = 4,600 (45 years)
CFC-12 = 10,600 (100 years)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
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2. The Impacts of global Warming
Arctic 1979
Arctic perennial sea ice has been
diminishing at a rate of 9% per decade.
The ice of frozen freshwater on Greenland
melts to dilute and lower the salinity of
the arctic ocean. This would have
significant effects (slower or stop) on the
ocean conveyor.
Ice from land
could raise
sea level
Reduced ice
from ocean
changes
currents
Arctic 2003
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How would the climate change if the Gulf Stream shut down?
A shut down of the Gulf Stream would suddenly decrease the amount of heat in the North
Atlantic, leading to much colder temperatures in Europe and North America.
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2. The Impacts of global Warming
Even if not killed…
Resting & Migration
 Reduction of sea ice has impact on populations of
marine mammals, they use ice floes for resting, molting
and giving birth.
Sardine
Poor Cod
Bearded Seal
Walrus
Anchovy
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2. The Impacts of global Warming
Flowering & Feeding
 Predators follow their prey
 Temporal mismatch of prey and predator = “phenological disjunction”
 non-migratory Great Tit (Parus major) and migratory Pied Flycatcher
(Ficedula hypoleuca)
 Reproductive success ↓ due to changing availability of caterpillar food
supplies.
 Also affected by phenological changes of forest due to climate change and
air pollution
71% of UK butterfly species
are reported to be declining
Ficedula hypoleuca
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Parus major
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2. The Impacts of global Warming
Abstract from the 17th Global Warming
Conference, April, 2006.
 In 2003, the World Conservation
Union's Red List said more than
12,000 species (out of 40,000
assessed) faced some extinction
risk, including one bird in eight,
13% of the world's flowering
plants, a quarter of all mammals.
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The Impacts of global Warming
1. Reduction of biodiversity:
•
•
Losing Habitats due to temperature rises
Reduction of freshwater supply trapped in mountains
2. Extreme weathers: more storms, floods, droughts…
3. More diseases
•
Endemic diseases increasing health risks
4. Unpredictable climate change
•
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Buffering power of planet earth is lowered, leading to
unforeseeable climate change
leading to fluctuating economy, e.g. Hurricanes in Mexico
Bay are threatening oil prices to surge, drought lead to
depletion of resources supply, etc………
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2. The Impacts of global Warming
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Effects of global warming
Effects of
Global warming
Economy
Human
health
Phytopl
ankton
populat
ion
Terrestrial
life
Fish
population
Marine
life
East
and
west
animal
Agriculture
Coral
North
pole
and
south
pole
animals
Food Climatic
supply change
3. Kyoto Protocol
Abstract from the 17th Global Warming Conference, April, 2006.
 .. today‘s atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are the
highest in 650,000 years.
 Antarctic climate and concentrations of the greenhouse
gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were
tightly coupled.
 … CO2 seemed to be confined between bounds of
about 180 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in glacial
periods and 280 ppmv in inter-glacials; …… Today is
380 ppmy and is rising….
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3. Kyoto Protocol
京都協定 The Kyoto Protocol, 1997
1. Took effect in February, 2005. Obligates
countries to observe target figures for
green house gas reduction.
2. Advanced nations should reduce
emissions of 6 gases by an average of
6-8% (relative to 1990 levels) over the
five year period from 2008 to 2012.
3. Kyoto Mechanisms : Scheme for
Trading Green House Gas Emissions
Rights and encourage international cooperations to achieve carbon neutral
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History: Emission Trading
Clean
Development
Mechanism
3. Kyoto Protocol
Country
Target (1990** - 2008/2012)
EU-15*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein,
Lithuania, Monaco, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Switzerland
-8%
US***
-7%
Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland
-6%
Croatia
-5%
New Zealand, Russian Federation,
Ukraine
0
Norway
+1%
Australia
+8%
Iceland
+10%
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World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2001
3. Kyoto Protocol
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)
1990
2000
2001
United States
4,989
5,787
5,692 (5,800 in 2006)
Canada
473
581
569
Mexico
308
364
352
United Kingdom
600
553
563
France
374
401
396
Germany
995
828
819
Italy
415
443
445
Netherlands
211
228
248
Japan
987
1,138
1,158
Australia/New Zealand
294
387
398
Russia
2,405
1,570
1,614
China
2,262
2,861
3,050 (6,200 in 2006)
India
561
914
917
South Korea
234
425
443
Turkey
129
184
184
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Brazil
250
343
347
23,536
23,899
Total World
21,563
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3. Kyoto Protocol
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History: Emission Trading
The global carbon market
Carbon dioxide emission trading
1. Since carbon dioxide is the
principal greenhouse gas,
people speak simply of
trading in carbon.
2. Carbon is now tracked and
traded like any other
commodity. This is known as
the "carbon market."
3. Each country and company
must set its own targets (set
ceiling)
Kyoto Mechanisms:
1. Joint Implementation
(JI)
2. Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
3. Emission Trading
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3. Kyoto Protocol
2007 UN Climate Change
Conference Result (Kyoto II):
Road Map by 2009 for all
countries?
Obama VS Bush?
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7120952.stm
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http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_R
esources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2
007.pdf
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resource
s/stabwedge.htm
http://www.ctenergyeducation.com/images/Wedges_Concept_Game_Materials_July05.pdf
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Wedge Strategies:
 Efficiency (reduced miles
 Nuclear energy
traveled, increased
 Renewables (e.g.
building and electricity
solar, wind, hydrogen)
efficiency)
 Biostorage (e.g. forest  Conservation (reduced
and soil storage)
transport)
 Fossil-Fuel-Based (fuel
switching, carbon
capture)
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Reso
urces_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf
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A question for you
Hong Kong is hotter
than global trend
in recent years!
Why?
Leung et al., 2004. Climate Change in Hong Kong. Hong Kong
Observatory Technical Note No.107. HKSAR Government. 41 p.
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http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/data/files/GHG_trend_1990_2005.pdf
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4. What can we do to help?
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http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/data/files/GHG_signifacnce_1990_2005.pdf
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4. What can we do to help?
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4. What can we do to help?
Our Power Plants are using coal or
Natural gas as their major fossil fuel to
generate electricity!
Gas-fired Plants under
construction
Gas-fired Plants planned
CLP Plants in Castle Peak.
Scheme of Control
Agreement
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HK Electric Plants in Lamma Island.
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Table of Progress in Achieving the 2010 Targets
1997
Emission
(tonnes)
2005
Emission
(tonnes)
Changes
1997-2005
2010
Targets
SO2
64 500
84 600
+31%
-40%
NOX
110 000
93 800
-15%
-20%
RSP
11 200
7 200
-36%
-55%
VOC
54 400
40 200
-26%
-55%
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http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/misc/ehk07/english/air/index.htm#2
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4. What can we do to help?
USE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND NUCLEAR POWER
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WHAT CAN WE DO TO HELP ??
 Carbon audit
 Low carbon Living
 Conserve rural area, plant
more trees.
 Practice life-style of health
and sustainability (LOHA
S), e.g. 3R, use MTR, stop
using tungsten light-bulbs,
save water, etc.
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Summary
 Carbon dioxide emission exceeds the normal
range and is rising, together with global
temperature
 The impacts are visible, cannot be stopped and
the situation is getting worse
 We are causing global warming and we have to
act on saving our planet earth!
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Discussion:
1. What’s Carbon neutral? What can we do to
achieve Carbon neutral or carbon
compensation?
2. Practicing wedge strategies: audit and plan
for low carbon living in your school/firm/
organization/and at home!
3. Is carbon tax more useful (fair?) than
trading?
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Further Readings
1.
Christianson, Gale (1999) Greenhouse:
The 200- Year Story of Global Warming.
Walker & Company, New York.
Penguin Books, 305p.
2.
Flannery, Tim (2006) We Are The
Weather Makers, The Story Of Global
Warming. Text Publishing Co., 272p.
3.
Gore, Al (2006) An Inconvenient Truth.
Rodale, Inc., New York, NY., 327p.
4.
Houghton, John (2004) Global
Warming. Third Ed., Cambridge
University Press, 351p.
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