Transcript Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of

Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101
Human-induced climate change
Why I am sceptical
Ian Plimer
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide
Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Constant cyclical climate change
Known Cycles
Variable
143 million year
100,000 years
41,000 years
23,000 years
1,500 years
210 years
87 years
22 years
18.7 years
11 years
tectonic, PDO
galactic
orbital
orbital
orbital
solar
solar
solar
solar
lunar
solar
The next climate change:
The future is written in the past
Pleistocene ice age
110,000 to 14,700 years ago
Bölling
14,700 to 13,900 years ago
Older Dryas
13,900 to 13,600 years ago
Allerød
13,600 to 12,900 years ago
Younger Dryas
12,900 to 11,600 years ago
Holocene warming
11,600 to 8,500 years ago
Egyptian cooling
8,500 to 8,000 years ago
Holocene Warming
8,000 to 5,600 years ago
Akkadian cooling
5,600 to 3,500 years ago
Minoan Warming
3,500 to 3,200 years ago
Bronze Age Cooling
3,200 to 2,500 years ago
Roman Warming
500 BC to 535 AD
Dark Ages
535 AD to 900 AD
Medieval Warming
900 AD to 1300 AD
Little Ice Age
1300 AD to 1850 AD
Modern Warming
1850 AD to ….
Climate change over time
Is the speed and degree of modern
climate change unprecedented?
Temperature (°C)
6
4
2
0
Today
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
400
300
200
100
Time – Thousands of Years Before Present
0
Cooling with increasing CO2
Temperature
Location, location, location…..
Urban heat island effect
Annual Mean
Temperature (°F)
23.5
Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)
22.0
20.0
18.5
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Temperature Trend per Decade
1940 - 1996 (°C)
What is really measured?
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Population of Country
10,000,000
Reliability of surface measurements
Temperature Variation (°C)
The 28 years of high quality satellite data
1.0
0.5
Global
0
-0.5
1.0
Northern Hemisphere
0.5
0
-0.5
1.0
Southern Hemisphere
0.5
0
-0.5
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,
The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly
Models for atmospheric temperature
10
10
NASA/NSIPP
50
50
100
100
200
300
200
300
500
700
950
500
700
950
60°S
-7
-6
30°S
-5
10
EQ
-4
30°N
-3
60°N
-2
-1
0
1
50
50
100
100
200
300
200
300
500
700
950
500
700
950
30°S
EQ
60°S
2
10
SNU
60°S
GFDL
30°N
60°N
30°S
3
EQ
4
30°N
5
6
60°N
7
NASA/GEOS5
60°S
30°S
EQ
30°N
60°N
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),
as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)
Radiosonde measurements
No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality
hPa
25
Km
50
20
100
16
200
12
24
300
500
700
1000
75°N
8
4
45°N 30°N 15°N
EQ
15°S 30°S 45°S
Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E
75°S
We’ll all be rooned
Measurement of historic sea levels
Sea Level (mm)
2000
Port Pirie
-0.3mm/yr
1500
2.4mm/yr
Port Adelaide Outer Harbour
1000
Fort Denison
500
1.0mm/yr
1.4mm/yr
Fremantle
Southern Oscillation Index
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)
Smoothing of ice core CO2 data
- why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm?
1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement
from 1958 Mauna Loa
CO2 5 year average
Ice core Antarctica
CO2 (ppmv)
450
400
350
300
270
1810
1850
1900
Year
1950 1970
Water: Main greenhouse gas
& driver of CO2
100%
0.001%
Man made
Natural
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Water
Vapour
0.117%
0.066%
0.047%
0.047%
CO2
Methane
N2O
Misc
Gases
Doubling CO2 at 385ppm
has no effect
The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide
1.6
Temperature (°C)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420
Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm
Submarine volcanicity
45°30’N
Terrestrial volcanoes change weather
(e.g. Tambora 1815)
Megaplume 2
45°00’N
Recent
Eruptions
Submarine supervolcanoes add heat
and CO2 to oceans and change climate
(64,000km ridges)
10,000 km3/a of cooling water
>95% Earth’s volcanoes
44°30’N
Megaplume 1
130°30’W
130°00’W
Seafloor Spreading
5.4cm/yr
increase*
Greenland ice sheet
Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr
80°N
d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994
10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)
-30°
-32°
-34°
-36°
-38°
20°W -40°
-42°
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1960 1975 1980 1985
75°N
80°W
Year
70°N
30°W
-29.5
-30
65°N
-30.5
-31
-31.5
-32
60°N
70°W
50°W
60°W
30 20 15 10
5
0 -5
40°W
-10 -15 -20 -30
-32.5
*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003
1000
800
600
400
200
Time – Years Before Present
100
Is global warming melting the ice caps
and reducing sea ice? NO!
1.0
Antarctic Sea Ice Trends
…. going up!
0.5
0
-0.5
30°W
-1.0
-1.5
1978
Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre
1990
Year
2000
60°W
0°
30°E
Antarctic
Peninsula
60°E
2006
Antarctic Land Ice Trends 90°W
…. going up over most
Amundsen
Sea
of the continent!
120°W
150°W
Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.
2000 Km
120°E
Kamb
Ice Stream
180°
150°E
Temperature proxy
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
260
240
220
200
Dust (ppm)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Thousands of Years Ago
350
400
CO2 (ppmv)
Temperature (°C)
H2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature
Temperature proxy
Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Temperature (°C)
10,000BC
-30
6,000BC
4,000BC
Modern
Maximum
-20
2,000BC
1AD
2000AD
Medieval
Maximum
Dalton
Minimum
-10
Maunder
Minimum
0
Spörer
Minimum
Oort
Minimum
Wolf
Minimum
10
20
8,000BC
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Calendar Years Before Present
It’s easy to stop climate change All we have to do is:
STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do
STOP ocean currents changing
STOP plate tectonics and continent movement
STOP orbital changes to Earth
STOP variations in energy released from Sun
STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy
STOP supernoval eruptions
When we’ve stopped these natural processes,
if human-induced then:
PERSUADE China and India to stay poor
A few little problems
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates
with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th
Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL
rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)