Transcript Science & Politics of Global Warming

Science & Politics
of Global Warming
Carbon dioxide (CO2): major byproduct of
burning hydrocarbons, such as coal and gas
& primary cause of global warming.
Levels rising in atmosphere by 2-3 PPM per year.
http://unc.libraries.edu
James Hansen TED talk: Why I Must Speak
Out on Climate Change
http://search.lib.unc.edu/filmfinder/search?R=UNCb7601909
• At current rate of increase, will exceed
• 500 PPM by 2050 = (twice pre-industrial
levels).
• Most experts agree: world should take action
now to insure levels do not rise above this
level!!
• Given new data showing faster rate of
warming, many now say we should set the bar
lower – at 350 ppm.
Increases in other greenhouse gases, such as methane
and nitrous oxide, will bring the 2050 level to
equivalent of 550 PPM of CO2.
Consensus estimate: 550 PPM will increase global
temperatures by 2-4 degrees Celsius above today’s
levels.
Mid-point of expected rise is half the difference
between the temperatures of the last ice age and the
early modern period!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rdLu7wiZOE&feature=fvwrel
Major trends anticipated:
•Coastal flooding due to sea-level rise; relocation of
people in port cities & low-lying countries; regions
•Drought and desertification in many regions; Water
shortages; changes in crop productivity
•More severe storms and extreme weather events:
hurricanes, cold waves, floods, heat waves.
•Melting of arctic polar ice (speeds warming),
changing northern ecosystems; melting of permafrost
= could release much more methane
Many ecologists warn we are in early stages of a mass
extinction event that will play out over the next 40 years
as world’s animal and plant species fail to adapt in time
to the rapid changes. Some think we may lose 40-50%
of all species – drastically affecting human capacity for
adaptation.
“Half the world’s tropical and temperate forests are now
gone. . . Deforestation continues at rate of an acre per
second . . .an estimated 90% of large predator fish are
gone. 20% of the corals are gone & another 20%
severely threatened. Species loss is 1000 fold faster
than prior to this century.” --James Gustave Speth
Dean, Yale School of Forestry
& Environmental Studies
Industrialized countries, especially U.S., are
responsible for most existing CO2 in the atmosphere
Each US citizen = emits 20 tons of CO2 each year;
(much higher than emissions per capita by
Europeans, (eg. 12.5 tons/person in UK)
& many times global average (eg. China and India,
despite rapid growth, still have very low per capita
emissions (4 tons and 2 tons per person, respectively).
Most countries in Kyoto Protocol have failed to
meet their goals. Major stumbling block = govts
respond to business sectors that fear competition
from US multinationals if they cut back
Satellite photos of change in arctic sea ice in July –
comparing same month in 1979 and 2007
Break up of ice bridge from Wilkins ice shelf to
Charcot Island, Antarctica; Spring 2009
IPCC “Hockey Stick” graph – center of recent controversy
"The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was
that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern
Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last
1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been
supported by an array of evidence ...
Based on the analyses presented in the original
papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting
evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the
Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few
decades of the 20th century than during any comparable
period over the preceding millennium. “
National Academy of Sciences report
(after review of data)
But the NAS Report continued:
“. . . less confidence can be placed in the original
conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that "the 1990s are
likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year,
in at least a millennium" because the uncertainties
inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual
years and decades are larger than those for longer time
periods . . .”
(so long term trend was supported; caution urged in
making predictions for individual years or decades)
Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt –
comparing summer 2007 with 2006;
classified by the Bush Administration,
declassified by Obama Administration
Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt –
comparing summer 2007 with 2006;
classified by the Bush Administration,
declassified by Obama Administration
Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt – comparing
summer 2007 with 2006;
classified by the Bush Administration,
declassified by Obama Administration
Free trade agreements impede enforcement of
international agreements on global warming
Under current WTO rules, a country that puts in
place strict standards on CO2 emissions can be
sued for restricting trade;
Eg. when Germany tried to restrict use of metal
drink cans, it faced action from the European
Commission, which has adopted neoliberal
rules.
European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
was intended to allow trading of carbon credits –
heavy polluters would pay for credits in early years,
and greener industries would earn credits.
But system has failed -- countries felt pressure to issue
nearly all the credits requested by polluting
companies, reducing value of credits. Many polluters
had more credits than they needed. --
Again opposition to regulation fueled by fear of
competition w/ non-players (eg. US and China).
Needed: a global agreement with teeth.
It’s simple math:
We can burn less than 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide and stay below 2°C of
warming.
Anything more than that risks catastrophe for life on earth.
The only problem? Fossil fuel corporations now have 2,795 gigatons in their
reserves, five times the safe amount. And they’re planning to burn it all —
unless we rise up to stop them.
350.org’s FossilFree campaign aims at getting colleges,
universities and others to divest from the 200 publiclytraded companies that hold the vast majority of the
world’s proven coal, oil and gas reserves. It also
demand that these companies:
• immediately to stop exploring for new hydrocarbons
• stop lobbying to preserve their special breaks
• pledge to keep 80% of their current reserves
underground forever
Union of Concerned Scientists
guide to climate denier think-tanks:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/fightmisinformation/global-warmingskeptic.html#.Ve3cWZdcBOY
Bill McKibben’s websites –
• 350.Org Main organization
• math.350.org “Do the Math” tour
• gofossilfree.org FF Divestiture campaign
Other websites for climate change info and action:
• thinkprogress.org/climate/ Joseph Romm
• www.globalchange.gov U.S. Global Change Research
Program
• www.epa.gov/climatechange/ EPA Climate Change site
• www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/ NRDC
• www.c2es.org Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
• www.climate.org Climate Institute – links including games
and simulations
• www.wmo.int World Meteorlogical Organization (UN)
• www.world.org/weo/climate “100 Top Climate Change Sites”