Transcript IMCORE - Rhoda Ballinger

An introduction to the
IMCORE climate change project
Dr Rhoda Ballinger
Topics to be considered:
• Introduction to IMCORE
• The Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme
• Progress update
1. Introduction to IMCORE
IMCORE:
Innovative Management of Europe’s
Changing Coastal Resource
AIMS:
• To promote a transnational,
innovative & sustainable approach to
reducing the impacts of climate
change on coastal resources
• To develop adaptation strategies for
coastal sites across North West
Europe
• To demonstrate the effectiveness of
various approaches to climate change
adaptation including:
– High tech visualisation techniques
– Futures scenario building
IMCORE partners
• Interreg IVb North West
Europe project
• Partners:
– Universities; local
authorities; coastal
networks
– Builds on the
COREPOINT Expert
Couplets & work
IMCORE outputs
• Multimedia Distance
Learning Tool
– Visualisation tool kit
– Related training material
– Coastal management
data base
• Adaptive Management
Strategies for each case
study
2.
Severn Estuary
IMCORE work programme
Severn IMCORE activities
• SECCRAG: Science base
• Stocktake of corporate
responses to climate
change
• ‘Futures’ scenario
building
• Education materials
SECCRAG: Science base
• Severn Citation Database
development
• SECCRAG May workshop
– Preliminary review of the
state of the science
– Way forward proposed
• UKCP09 Review
Stocktake: Estuary Planning Review
• Phase I – Corporate Responses
– How are planning bodies embedding climate change into
planning practices?
• Phase II – Climate Change science base
– What climate change science do planning authorities
use/want/need?
• Planners Workshop (Spring 2010)
– Estuary-wide cohesion
– Coordinated approaches to C.C. adaptation
‘Futures’ – Scenario building
• Structure how we can
plan uncertainties
• Portray several different
possible/desirable
‘futures’
• Enable multisectoral
thinking ‘outside the box’
• Glamorgan University
input
3.
Preliminary findings
Science base: UKCP09 review
• Provides
– Climatic trends to date
– Climatic predictions to
2100
– UK National scale
• possible to interrogate at
local/regional levels
– Low, medium and high
emissions scenarios
• http://ukcp09.defra.gov
.uk/
Changes in seasonal means (C)
1960-90 to
2070 - 2100
UKCP09 Sea level rise
Sea Level Rise Plot for Chepstow
Sea Level Data
12km Grid
• Sea level around UK rose by 1mm/yr during 20th Century
• Rate increased during 1990s and 2000s
• Phillips (2009) prediction: 2.4mm/yr for Bristol Channel
UKCP09 Storm surge data
50 yr trend in Surge Return Level
Storm Surge Data
20km Grid
•
•
•
Small increase in storm surge ht (0.8mm/yr) – LESS than predictions in UKCP02
Does not include changes in sea level
Note wave height changes:
–
–
small increase in winter significant wave height
winter max wave height is more uncertain
mm/yr
Planning Review:
Stocktake of Severn-side plans
& policies
Main Categories
Sub Categories
Climate Change
Mitigation considerations (other than C02)
Adaptation considerations
Carbon management
Supplementary Planning Guidance/
Documents
Other policies
Flood and Coastal
Erosion Risk
Management
Estuary Management
Development in flood risk areas
Development exacerbating flooding
Development and coastal erosion
Ref. to Shoreline Management Plans
Supplementary Planning Guidance/
Documents
Other policies
Ref. to Severn Estuary Partnership
Ref. to Severn Estuary Strategy &/or other
estuary wide initiatives
Supplementary Planning Guidance/
Documents
Other policies
Tewkesbury
Borough Council
Welsh Planning Bodies / Groups
English Planning Bodies
Bridgend County Borough Council
Forest of Dean District Council
Vale of Glamorgan Council
Stroud District Council
Cardiff City Council
Tewkesbury Borough Council
Newport City Council
Gloucester City Council
Monmouthshire County Council
Gloucestershire County Council
South East Wales Strategic Planning Group
Bristol City Council
North Somerset District Council
Sedgemoor District Council
West Somerset District Council
Somerset County Council
South West Regional Development
Agency
Initial findings
• Local Authorities play a key role in preparing for
climate change
(Service Providers, Corporate Managers, Community Leaders)
• All signed up to Nottingham / Welsh Declaration
on Climate Change & Energy Efficiency
• 6 authorities adopted climate change strategies
(+ 2 underway)
• No real sense of Severn Estuary or estuary
cohesion
Policy Trends
• Climate change
– explicit policies being developed in emerging plans
• Flood risk
– many policies in adopted and emerging plans (15 of 17)
• Coastal zone
– dropping off of policies within emerging plans
• Shoreline Management Plans
– few references in adopted plans (5 of 17); none in emerging plans
• Severn Estuary Strategy
– few references in adopted plans (4 of 17); none in emerging plans
4.
Final comments
IMCORE: future development
•
Work in progress
•
Exciting opportunities for partnership
working through IMCORE
e.g. Climate Change Adaptation – The
Gloucestershire Approach
(National Indicator (NI) 188 – Planning to
adapt to climate change)
•
2010 events
– SECRRAG
– Planners’ meeting
– Futures workshop
– Beacons Schools events
Dr Rhoda Ballinger
[email protected]
IMCORE:
http://imcore.eu/