Transcript Plans for the 2010 WMO/UNEP

Plans for the 2010 WMO/UNEP
Assessment of ozone Depletion
Ozone Research Managers Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland
May 19, 2008
2010 WMO/UNEP Assessment
Co-chairs:
Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
John Pyle (UK)
Paul Newman (USA)
A. R. Ravishankara (USA)
Scientific Assessment of
Ozone Depletion:2010
Colour?
A Little Context: The Assessment Process
Important factors:
1. The expertise of the authors.
2. Critical reviews (multiple times) by experts
What the assessments are:
State of science: What we know & what we don’t, framed in policyuseful terms.
Scientific documents, prepared & reviewed by the expert
communities.
Assessed viewpoints, not reviews.
“One-stop shopping”:
Science of the ozone layer; Impacts of ozone change;
Technology/economics of options.
Well-identified “customers”:
Governments (via the Montreal Protocol); Industry; Public; Science
community
What the assessments are not
 They don’t make policy recommendations.
 They are not research-planning documents, nor do
they “push” research projects or needs.
 They do identify gaps in information that may limit
informed decision-making.
 No one assessment report is the “final word”.
Both policy and research are interactive endeavors.
Contents
 Key ongoing issues
- Levels of ODS and trends
- Levels of ozone and its trends
- Our understanding of the atmospheric science
 What is new in science
- The impact of climate change on ozone layer
recovery
- The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its
changes
 Key requests from the Parties to the Protocol
** Update “common questions”
Overall Timetable & Some Notable Features
Steps: Dates and Tasks
Draft outline completed.
Lead Authors, Coauthors established
Chapter outlines drafted
2009
Early 2009: Lead Authors’ meeting (location?).
Late October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review.
End of 2009: Internal review meeting, Lead Authors,
Steering Committee, and a few others. (Washington, USA?)
February 2006: 2nd drafts complete and mail peer review starts.
April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins.
Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Panel reviewers.
2010
Summer 2010: Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland ?)
> Lead Authors & a few Coauthors.
> ~30-40 reviewers.
> Final decisions on chapters.
> Completed Executive Summary.
Late July: Chapters completed.
30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution.
March 2011: final printed copies available
Findings from the
2006 Assessment
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Findings of the
Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP)
Ozone Research Managers Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland
May 19, 2008
2006 WMO/UNEP Assessment
Co-chairs:
Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
Daniel L. Albritton (USA)*
Robert T. Watson (USA)*
Scientific Steering Committee:
Marie-Lise Chanin (France)
Susana Diaz (Argentina)
John Pyle (United Kingdom)
A.R. Ravishankara (USA)
Theodore G. Shepherd (Canada)
Please join me in thanking these two great individuals
Ultraviolet
radiation change
Global
ozone
change
Ozone-depleting
chlorine and
bromine in the
stratosphere
ODS
production
Scientific Findings
(a)
ODS production
(b)
ODS in the atmosphere
Ozone levels –
measured and
predicted
(c)
(d)
1980
Now
2100
UV levels – based on
observations and
predictions
“There is even stronger evidence since the 2002
Assessment that the Montreal Protocol is working”
The Montreal Protocol is working
• Ozone-depleting substances are decreasing in the lower
atmosphere (where they are emitted) as well as in the
stratosphere where the ozone layer is
• The Montreal Protocol is working as intended
ODS Changes in the Lower Atmosphere
ODS Changes in the Stratosphere
Ozone observations
There are early signs that the ozone layer is starting
its expected recovery
?
2010
Polar ozone changes
Polar ozone loss remains large and highly variable
• The Antarctic ozone hole
will persist till around
2060-2075
• Arctic ozone levels are
expected to return to pre1980 values around 2050
• The annual variations are
expected in the next
decades
Ozone depleting substances
There are many contributors to the decrease in ODS:
•
Methyl chloroform and methyl
bromide contributed most to the
decline thus far; methyl chloroform
will soon be insignificant in the
atmosphere
•
Halons peaked in the lower
atmosphere around 1998 and are
now decreasing
•
Very short-lived halogenated
(chlorine and bromine) substances
are of greater importance than
previously estimated
Methyl Chloroform
Methyl Bromide, Halons
HCFCs
HCFC-141b
HCFC-22
HCFC-142b
•
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs) continue to increase
in the atmosphere. In 2004
they contributed 6% to the
lower atmospheric chlorine
burden, compared to 5% in
2000.
•
HCFC-22 is the most
abundant of the HCFCs and
is increasing at 3.2% per
year.
Return of ozone to pre-1980 levels
ODS are decreasing & the ozone layer is starting its recovery
Climate change and ODSs will affect the future of ozone layer
Decreases in ODS emissions already achieved by MP is the
dominant factor in return to pre-1980 values
Global ozone layer (60oS-60oN) is
expected to return to pre-1980
values around 2050
But failure to continue compliance with the MP could
delay or even prevent the recovery of the ozone layer
Evaluation of options
Benefits to the ozone layer of many options to
further reduce ODS have been evaluated
Percent reductions in integrated Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)
Progress since SAP 2006 Report
Science moves on!
The 2006 Assessment was one in a series- more to
follow in the future.
Thanks to Daniel Albritton and Robert Watson for their
leadership!
The new co-Chairs of the Scientific Assessment Panel:
Prof. Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
Dr. Paul Newman (USA)
Prof. John Pyle (United Kingdom)
Dr. A. R. Ravishankara (USA)
To follow: What is new since the assessment?
Thank you for your attention
The assessment reports
Executive summary
and Twenty Questions and Answers
All available upon request
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