Transcript Document

Climate change: Future international action
IGCI
NZ commitment under the Kyoto Protocol
– key issues for consideration
from the perspective of the Montreal Protocol
Janet F. Bornman, International Global Change Institute, IGCI
University of Waikato
UNEP: Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, EEAP
Co-chairs: Janet F. Bornman, Xiaoyan Tang, Jan van der Leun
Assessment of effects of O3 depletion & climate change
interaction on:
Ozone and UV changes – Health – Terrestrial ecosystems
Aquatic ecosystems – Biogeochemical cycles
Air Quality – Materials
Montreal Protocol
1974:
emissions of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) were
depleting the stratospheric ozone layer
1980s:
thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica
- “ozone hole”
Thinning has occurred over every continent
1987:
production of controlled ODS
- more than 1.8 million tonnes/year
2005:
- reduced to 83,000 tonnes
Montreal Protocol, MP
16 September 1987
24 countries signed the initial MP on substances that
deplete the ozone layer
Today, twenty years later
191 countries have ratified the MP
-committed to meeting strict time-bound reduction obligations
for each of the ca 100 substances controlled by the Protocol
Today:
95% reduction achieved
The work of the MP is not yet finished
Predictions for full recovery to pre-1980 levels rely on
assumptions of full implementation of the MP
“The Montreal Protocol is
working. The concentrations of
ozone depleting substances in
the atmosphere are now
decreasing”
Assessment Panels
Montreal Protocol, MP
Major outcomes
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protection of health and the environment
reductions achieved by the MP have supported efforts
addressing global climate change and the Kyoto Protocol
Reason:
-most ODS are also potent global warming gases
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The ozone layer is projected to return to pre-1980 levels by
2050 to 2075
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The USA estimates that by 2165, actions to protect and
restore the ozone layer will have prevented 6.3 million skin
cancer deaths and produced US$ 4.2 trillion in societal
health benefits in the USA
What can the Kyoto Protocol and amendments
beyond 2012 learn from the MP?
Partnership with industry - invaluable
• more climate/environment friendly alternatives
• dissemination of information on new methods and
technologies
Assessment panels on science, environmental effects,
technology and economic issues
Key roles:
- independent assessments
- Responding also to specific inquiries by the MP Parties
Multilateral Fund
Since 1990, provided support to developing countries to enable
them to meet their reduction obligations under the Protocol
The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations, NGO
Non-compliance Regime
Not often thought of as a partner!
Includes an Implementation Committee
- works together with countries facing difficulties to manage
action plans with time specific benchmarks for helping
countries come into compliance with the MP
Definite deadlines for developed and developing countries
Allowance for ”critical use exemptions”, but with time limits
NZ and the KYOTO PROTOCOL
NZ International negotiations
Kyoto flaws: participation of developing countries
No clear commitment to specific reductions, just agreements
Reasons: also flawed or should be approached differently
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Priorities are economic growth and poverty reduction
Industrialised countries consume far more energy,
producing far more greenhouse gases
Since the Industrial Revolution, Europe and North America
have produced 85% of the human-induced CO2 in the
atmosphere today
Key points for NZ to argue for
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Participation of all countries in the Kyoto Protocol
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First step: all developed countries on board in an alliance
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At present too short a time-frame to meet targets
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Targets/costs are unbalanced among countries
(The EU can average emissions among its members)
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Industry needs to be firmly involved – in NZ and globally
-major technology ”fixes”, tax benefits
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Well structured multilateral fund aimed at helping
developing countries meet firm targets on time
The Montreal Protocol Kyoto
Protocol is working. The
concentrations of CO2 ozone
depleting substances in the
atmosphere are now decreasing