Transcript Issues before the 25th Open-Ended Working Group Meeting of

The Montreal Protocol and Climate Change
Marco Gonzalez
Ozone Secretariat
UNEP
DECEMBER 2007
Vienna Convention / Montreal Protocol
Objectives:
–VC: to protect human health and the
environment against adverse effects
resulting from modifications of the ozone
layer
–MP: to protect the ozone layer
addition, the 4th preamble paragraph to the
Montreal Protocol states
–“Conscious of the potential climatic effects of
emissions of these substances,”
Therefore climate change was considered
In
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The Montreal Protocol
A
successful multilateral environmental
agreement
–Phased-out over 95% of global consumption
of ozone-depleting substances in just 20
years
–Ozone layer on path to recover by midcentury
–Averted many millions cases of cancer
deaths and cataract cases
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2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Article 5 Parties
Non-Article 5 Parties
96%
4%
1986*
1987*
1988*
1989*
1990*
1991*
1992*
1993*
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Annual Consumption in
Thousands of ODP tonnes
Global Annual Consumption: Parties had achieved
an aggregate 96% reduction in all ODSs
Year
4
S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006
5
Effects of the Montreal Protocol and Amendments:
Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and
cataract cases
6
Parallels between the conventions and the
protocols
The
Vienna Convention
adopted in 1985
The Montreal Protocol
adopted in 1987
Entry into force in 1989
Amended 4 times: 1990,
1992, 1997 & 1999
Adjusted 6 times
96 substances controlled
 191 Parties so far
The
Framework
Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
adopted in 1992
The Kyoto Protocol
adopted in 1997
Entry into force in 2005
Amended once in 2006
Basket of 6 gases
controlled
176 Parties so far
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Substance
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-115
CFC-113
CFC-11
HCFC-142b
HCFC-22
HCFC-141b
Halon-1301
Halon-1211
Halon-2402
Carbon Tetrachloride
Methyl Chloroform
Methyl Bromide
GWP
10,720 ± 3750
9880 ± 3460
7250 ± 2540
6030 ± 2110
6800 ± 1640
2270 ± 800
1780 ± 620
713 ± 250
7030 ± 2460
1860 ± 650
1620 ± 570
1380 ± 480
144 ± 50
5 ± 2
ODP
1
1
0.6
0.8
1
0.065
0.055
0.11
10
3
6
1.1
0.1
0.6
8
12,000
Other ODSs
Halons
HCFCs
CFCs
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Year
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
1989
Consumption in Millions of equivalent
GWP-tonnes of CO 2
Consumption under Montreal Protocol: Measured in
equivalent GWP-tonnes of CO2 emissions – note the
increasing significance of HCFCs
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Climate Benefits of Ozone Protection
IPCC/TEAP
Special Report on Ozone and Climate
first highlighted the GWP-weighted emissions
December
2006: Velders, et al., The Importance of
the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate
– MP will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between
1990 and 2010
– This is delaying climate change by up to 12 years
– If voluntary efforts & domestic measures from 1970s are
taken into account, delay is up to 41 years
10
Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007
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Triumph in Montreal
12
13
Developing Countries HCFC Schedule
New Control Schedule
2013: Freeze at average of
2009-2010 levels
2015: 10% reduction
2020: 35% reduction
2025: 67.5% reduction
2030: 100% reduction while
allowing 2.5% for
refrigeration and A/C
servicing until 2040.
Old Control Schedule
2016:Freeze at 2015
levels
-
2040:100% reduction
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120%
100%
New
Base
2009-10
Old
Base
2015
80%
60%
40%
20%
New A5 HCFC Measures
Old A5 HCFC Measures
Year
2040
2036
2032
2028
2024
2020
2016
2012
0%
2008
Control measure (maximum limit) from base
line
Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs New
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Article 5 HCFC Consumption:
Savings from the New HCFC Adjustments
(assumes freeze at previous base level of 2015)
Savings by New Adjustment
Projected Consumption
Actual Consumption
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2040
2035
2030
2025
Year
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
HCFC Consumption (Thousands of
ODP tonnes)
45
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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
Paragraph
5 on financial and technical assistance:
“To agree that the funding available through the
Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of MP in the
upcoming replenishments shall be stable and
sufficient to meet all agreed incremental costs to
enable A5 parties to comply with the accelerated
phase-out schedule both for production and
consumption sectors as set out above, and based on
that understanding, to also direct the Executive
Committee of Multilateral Fund to make the
necessary changes to the eligibility criteria related to
the post-1995 facilities and second conversions.”
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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
Paragraph
9 on climate change:
“To encourage Parties to promote the selection of
alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental
impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as
meeting other health, safety and economic
considerations.”
Paragraph 11 on climate change
“To … give priority to cost-effective projects and
programmes which focus on … [s]ubstitutes and
alternatives that minimize other impacts on the
environment, including on the climate, taking into
account global warming potential, energy use, and
other relevant facts.”
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GAZING INTO THE FUTURE
An agreement that is doing
so much for ozone
—and for climate—
clearly deserves our attention.
It has much to teach us.
.
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