Transcript High-Level Segment - Agenda 3 - Report of the Scientific

Report of the Scientific Assessment Panel
20th Meeting of the Parties to the
United Nations Montreal Protocol
16-20 November 2008
Doha, Qatar
Cochairs:
Ayité-Lo Ajavon (Togo)
Paul A. Newman (USA)
John A. Pyle (UK)
A.R. Ravishankara (USA)
Today’s Summary:
 status of the 2010 report of the Scientific Assessment Panel
A birds eye view of 2010 assessment
 Key ongoing issues
- Levels and trends of ODS and their substitutes, with emphasis on
HCFCs
- Levels of ozone and its trends
- Our understanding of the atmospheric science as it relates to ozone
layer changes
 What is new in science
- The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery; impact on
when the layer will recover
- The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes
 Specifically the the Terms of the Parties from September 2007
(19th MOP, Decision XIX/20)
Contents of 2010 Science Assessment
Science topics to be addressed (Decision XIX/20):
• assess the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution
• evaluate recent Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic ozone depletion
behavior
• evaluate trends of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere
• assess the impacts of climate change on ozone layer
• analyze atmospheric concentrations of bromine and
implications for the ozone-layer
• describe surface ultraviolet radiation observations and future
expectations
• assess interaction between tropospheric and stratospheric ozone
• assess approaches to evaluating very short-lived substances
A Request to the Parties
Preparatory work for the assessment has started
 November 4, 2008 e-mail from UNEP to the
Parties, seeking nominations of participants
 Participation also leads to capacity building
 Replies requested by December 19, 2008
 Previous participants need not be
renominated; they will be considered again
 Replies to be sent to UNEP
contact: [email protected]
The 2010 Science Assessment








Immediate Next Steps:
Request nominations of experts
Cochairs determine Chapter structure
On going
Determine Chapter Lead Authors
Chapter Teams form, Chapter preparation begins
Lead Author meeting to review
Chapter first drafts
Reviews and revisions
Final review and release
2008
2010
2009

Oct-Dec 19
Nomination
of Experts
Dec/Jan
Feb-Oct
Nov-Dec
Jan-July
Determine Chapter Prepare Chapter
LA Meeting,
Structure and Leads
First Drafts First Chapter Drafts
Reviews
Revisions
Steps for 21010 Assessment: Dates and Tasks
Draft outline completed.
Lead Authors, Coauthors established
Chapter outlines drafted
2009
Early 2009: Lead Authors’ meeting (location?).
Late October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review.
End of 2009: Internal review meeting, Lead Authors,
Steering Committee, and a few others. (Washington, USA?)
February 2006: 2nd drafts complete and mail peer review starts.
April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins.
Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Panel reviewers.
2010
Summer 2010: Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland ?)
> Lead Authors & a few Coauthors.
> ~30-40 reviewers.
> Final decisions on chapters.
> Completed Executive Summary.
Late July: Chapters completed.
30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution.
March 2011: final printed copies available
THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION