Transcript Prof. Wolfram Mauser, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich

ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE
GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU
STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION –
A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Dan Bălteanu
Institute of Geography
Romanian Academy,
Wolfram Mauser
Ludwig-Maximilians
University, Munich
February 18, 2013
Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD),
Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001
Pillars of the Danube Strategy:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Connectivity
Environmental protection
Economic development
Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region
Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin
- Past, present, future • Main purpose:
– To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube
Basin within a global change perspective
– To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to
respond to the challenges of a changing environment
– To build a product responsive to the local, national and
regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility
of the Strategy
– To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the
development of the Danubian community
– To identify critical areas in terms of environmental
degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts
Keywords of the Atlas
Global environmental change
- Climate change
- Environmental risks
- Land use / Land cover change
- Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth,
urbanization, globalization) and human security
Regional impacts of global
environmental change
- Extreme events and natural hazards
- Agriculture and forestry
- Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge /
snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption
- Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity
- Transport
Social and Economic Adaptation
strategies
- System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators)
- Regional adaptive capacity to global change
- Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines
and their interactions
- Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making
factor
Equity concerns, institutional
arrangements and governance for
sustainability
- Food security
- (Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users
- New technologies and innovation
- Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and
development of communities
- decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry
and non-governmental organization to scientists,
-cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability
INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND
SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY
• Regional assessment of present-day situation
and of climate change impacts and potential
adaptation strategies
• Methodological approach will be based on
DANUBIA system developed for the Upper
Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple
the various submodels of different disciplines
with the help of the latest software tools
INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND
SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY
• It will be based on social scenarios developed in
GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from
SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the
society as a whole and its change in the future.
• Also, there will be used methods applied in
several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating
homogenous regions in terms of their
endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster
and factor analyses
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Inhalt
E Einleitende Beiträge
1 Natur- und Sozialraum
2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle
3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse
Impressum
Glossar
Prof. W. Mauser – coordinator
University of Munchen
Upper Danube Atlas
Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube
Upper Danube Atlas
Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA
SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE
CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT
CLAVIER APPROACH OF
VULNERABILITY:

Economic Vulnerability =
f (Exposure, Economic
Sensitivity, Adaptive
Capacity)

High Regional Adaptive
Capacity reduces
Regional Vulnerability

The analysis is based on
a series of exposure and
sensitivity indicators
relevant in determining
the adaptive capacity of a
region to climate change
Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007
CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment
complies with the IPCC approach on
Vulnerability to Climate Change
ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC
METHODOLOGY
-Data was analyzed using 2 statistical
methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA
- 8 clusters at NUTS III level
- EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES:
structural variables (e.g. sectoral
employment, regional GDP, value added
shares) spatial variables (accessibility,
regional employment shares)
ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS
Scope (level of
investigation)
Sectoral Level
Case Study Level
All regions
Potential economic Impact
ERAC (+)
Economic Sensitivity (-)
Exposure (-)
extent to which the
areas whose economies
economy depends on a
certain sector
are closely linked with
that go beyond
climate-sensitive resources normal adaptations
Depends on the level of
climate change and on the
Pure Agricultural
Regions
high (agriculture)
Predominantely
presumably high
Agricultural Regions
(agriculture)
Rural Service
high (agriculture,
Regions
unstable population)
long-term processes are to
be integrated into the
Depopulating
low (already severe
definition. Physical
Regions
structural problems)
Climate Changes and their
potential of responses
Sector specific Case Study
Estimated Economic
Vulnerability
= f (Economic Sensitivity,
Exposure; ERAC ) [estimated by
assuming average exposure for the
whole sample]
limited
high
limited
presumably high
below average
average
inferior
presumably low
average
average
high
low
system’s location whereas
according to the definition
single climate variables,
specific weather events or
impact on the region have
Industrial Regions
average (industry)
Industrial Centres
low
to be analysed. Analysis
has to be undertaken on
regional level and serve as
the basis for the impact
Tourist Centres
high (tourism)
assessment on case study
level
Service Regions
low
slightly above
average
high
high
low
enviroGRIDS
IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop
- Significance for Romanian Researches
Dan Bălteanu
13 Nov 2012 – IIASA
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
- The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy –
relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU
Strategy for the Danube Region;
- The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level
based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and
thematic directives;
- The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR
THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services
(SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing
issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and
will support bottom-up initiatives.
- The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in
order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all
the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.