Transcript P. Mehlbye - Territorial Trends and Perspectives Related to

ESPON Internal Seminar
5-6 December 2012 in Paphos
Territorial Trends and Perspectives
Related to the European Neighbourhood
Structure
The European Territory, The Neighbourhood, The World
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Globalisation, Crises and Climate Change
New Markets and Trade Flows
Population, Employment and Wealth
Access, Connections and Cooperation
Conclusions
The enlarging territorial context
• Today a wider territorial
perspective is necessary
• No place can today
develop in isolation
• Competition is
increasingly world-wide
and no longer a zerosum-game within Europe
or a nation
World City Network,
2008
Internet Users in the world, 1999-2009
Average annual growth rate
• The world is
rapidly changing
• New markets
• New flows
• New
interdependencies
• New connections
Places servicing global capital, 2000-2008
• European networks of cities
servicing global capital more evenly
spread and balanced than among
other global players
• London remains Europe’s topranking centre followed by Paris,
Milan and Madrid. Other particular
high performer cities are Brussels,
Munich and Amsterdam.
• Challenge to keep the position of
Europe’s major global cities while
exploiting second tier cities global
opportunities to both grow and
balance territories.
• Skt. Petersburg and Istanbul,Ankara
important in the Neighbourhood
Countries´s profiles for trade exports, 1967-2006
• End 1960’s, the world trade pattern
characterised by a clear distinction
between a small number of countries with
high technology (USA, Northwest Europe,
Japan) and a countries characterized by
export of primary products.
• Beginning of the 21st century growing
difference between countries exporting
energy or mineral resources and
sophisticated industrialised countries.
• In Europe, the EU has integrated new
Member States into its economy becoming
stronger in terms of trade exports
• Growing international players in the EU
neighbourhood, notably Russia, Turkey,
Tunisia and Morocco.
Aggregate potential impact of climate change
• Impacts hits hardest in
south of Europe and in
western territories facing
the sea
• Double challenge in the
south as same areas
have the lowest adaptive
capacity
Legend
Population Growth 1990-2010
• Population growth
strongest in southern and
eastern Mediterranean
countries
• Eastern European
Neighbourhood largely
showing population
decline
• In the EU positive growth
apart from Eastern
Germany, parts of
Poland, northern
Scandinavia, parts of
Scotland and Spanish
regions in the north-west
Population in EU and its neighbourhood in 2030
• The European population only
increasing slowly towards 2013.
• In the EU, a trend of East-West
divide in demographic
development is visible, mostly
due to a negative migration
balance in Eastern Europe.
• Europe is getting older and the
median age in 2030 will in some
regions exceed 50 years.
• Migration plays a key role for
population growth in Europe.
• Towards 2030, population
growth will be significantly
higher in neighbouring countries
to the South sustaining a
particular migratory pressure on
Europe
Discontinuities in GDP per capita, 2008
• Most dominant differences between
Europe (including Turkey) and North
Africa, and between Finland and Russia.
• Economic divisions within Europe
between west and east, and before the
crisis, between Greece and Cyprus.
• Noticeable additional discontinuity
between Northern Africa and countries
across the Sahara
• Divisions in economic wealth in the EU
between east-west parallel to
demographic perspectives
Regional Employment Rates (labour force), 2000-2010
• Regional labour force
developed most favourably in
the northern core of Europe
• Ireland, Iceland and Romania
have relatively lost
employment
• Some countries in the Balkans
have witnessed strong decline
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Human Resources in Science and Technology 2009
• The strongest regions in
Science and Technology
human resources in the
north western part of Europe
• The largest cities visible as
key places for this segment
of the labour force
• In Turkey, the Ankara region
is the strongest player
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Tertiary Education of Population aged 30-34, 2010
• Younger people (30-34) with
tertiary education particularly
low in the south-eastern
countries, including Turkey
• Portugal and parts of northern
Germany and central Poland
under EU average as well
• Western and Northern Europe
have the most educated
younger population
• Capital cities in general
scoring best within the
country
Airports – Number of destinations served
• Accessibility and connectivity a
central agglomeration benefit and
driver in the economic and social
development of places
• Air accessibility, Europe appears as a
mosaic with regions of high, medium
and low number of destinations
served
• Modifications of destinations since
2001 changing regional air access,
both positively and negatively
• Low cost air carriers involve risks for
long-term air accessibility
• Only regions with large international
airports seem to ensure a stable
position of air accessibility.
• Air connections seem to support
European polycentric development
and important for world integration
Cooperation with Neighbourhood: Bilateral Treaties
• Nearly half (46%) of EU27+4
international bilateral treaties are with
the EU neighbourhood
• Without NO, SW, and IS the share falls
to 193 (25%): 7% for Mediterranean
countries, 8% for Western Balkans,
10% for Eastern neighbors, including
Russia.
• Intensification of political relations is
clear in the East (Russia, Ukraine,
Moldova), except for Belarus.
• The political cooperation with the
Western Balkans countries is also
increasing
• Contrary, the Mediterranean
neighborhood is generally trailing
behind
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Conclusions (1)
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Living conditions in neighbourhood countries are in general
well below the EU average, however a more wealthy middle
class is growing increasing the demand
European trade needs diversifying opening new markets
keeping the US and EU neighbourhood as important trade
partners
In terms of trade, the neighbourhood have a position with
regions specialized in low value added goods but also an
increasing pressure from countries with lower labour costs
Population growth and migration pressure originates mainly
from the Southern neighbourhood
The Eastern neighbourhood not characterized by migration
pressures, more by border restrictions hampering a free
flow of people and goods
Conclusions (2)
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GDP discontinuities largest in the southern
neighbourhood releasing northbound migration pressure
Climate change seems not to affect the eastern
neighbourhood as severely as the southern
neighbourhood
Skt. Petersborg and Istanbul/Ankara are potential world
cities and potential partners in metropolitan cooperation
Cities at north-African shores should be considered
potential cooperation partners with cities in the EU
Access by air to the neighbourhood overall not so bad,
however many smaller airports sensitive to crisis
International treaties favours (currently) the markets in
the eastern neighbourhood
More information
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