Transcript Producers and processes involved in primary production

Redefining the Human-Earth
relationship…
Katherine Richardson
Professor og Vice Dean, University of
Copenhagen
Chairman for ”Climate Commission”
From: Steffen et al. 2004
Humanity in the
Anthropocene
Kaufman, Darrell S., et al. 2009. Recent
Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic
Cooling. Science, September 4, 2009
Steffen, W., et al. 2004
2100?
2009
Climate Change
• We suggest boundary values of
350 ppm CO2 and 1 W m-2 above
pre-industrial level
The Congress is
sponsored by:
AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Blue:1961-2003
Red:1993-2003
Climate Change
Air temperature
CSIRO
Polar Ice sheets melting faster than
predicted at last IPCC
Sea-level rising faster than predicted
Rise of
approx. 1 m
or more
expected by
2100
“much better than expected”?
“Over the past two years, sea levels
have not increased at all — actually,
they show a slight drop. Should we
not be told that this is much better
than expected?“
Björn Lomborg
“Let the data speak for itself”
The Guardian, 14 Oct 2008
CO2 Emissi
15
A2
B1
B2
10
5
Recent faster
emissions
Emissions rising
than predicted
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)
10
9
8
7
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2100
SRES (2000)
growth rates
in % y -1 for
2000-2010:
2007
2006
2005
A1B: 2.42
A1FI: 2.71
A1T: 1.63
A2: 2.13
B1: 1.79
B2: 1.61
Observed
2000–2006
3.3%
6
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Ocean acidification
Challenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to
function as sink of CO2
Turley et al 2006
• Southern Ocean and Arctic
ocean projected to become
corrosive to aragonite by 20302060
From R. Buddemeier, based on Kleypas et al. 1999
Updated Reasons for Concern
EU 2°C-Guardrail
Source: H.J. Schellnhuber
(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)
Uncertain uncertainty
3 ºC
6 ºC
17
ref: Baer and Mastrandrea
(2006)
Why should we stop burning fossil
fuels?
Because of their
contribution to
climate change.
Because fossil fuels
create geopolitical
tensions (national
security issues,
economic
vulnerability of
fluctuating fuel
prices, energy
security..)
Because fossil fuels
are finite resources –
oil: 41 years, natural
gas: 60 years, coal:
133 years (source: BP Statistical
Review of World Energy 2008)
mb/d
International Energy Agency: World
oil production in the Reference Scenario
120
Natural gas liquids
Non-conventional oil
100
Crude oil - yet to be
developed (inc. EOR)
or found
80
Crude oil - currently
producing fields
60
40
20
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current
capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline
Why fossil fuels create geopolitical
tensions.
• Proven reserves - oil
(source:BP)
Påviste oliereserver fordelt på "politisk region" (BP
2007)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
EU
OECD
Tidl. Sovjet
non-OPEC
OPEC
Coal
• Least problematic global distribution of reserves
• Most problematic for climate change
Påviste kulreserver pr. region (BP 2007)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
EU
OECD
Tidl. Sovjet
Andre
Natural Gas
• 40 percent better than coal for the climate
• National security issues.. (Russia, Iran….)
Naturgasreserver pr. politisk region (BP 2007)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
EU
OECD
Tidl. Sovjet
Mellemøsten
EU: Growing import dependency
over the next 25 years.
KEY MESSAGE:
Future energy
supplies are not
secure...
Danmark’s energy source: world expert
in renewable energy but there’s a long
way to go!
Danmarks bruttoenergiforbrug i PJ (korrigeret)
Energiaftalen
900
EU's klima- og
energiudspil
800
700
600
Vedvarende
energi
500
Fossilt
brændsel
400
300
200
100
0
1972
1990
2006
2011
2020
A double challenge - to reduce energy
use and replace fossil fuels as the
primary energy source
1000
900
800
700
Konverteringstab
m.m.
Besparelser
600
PJ/år
We have the technology!!
Transport
500
400
300
VE
Proces
(ekskl. el)
Anden VE
Elforbrug
Vind
Affald
200
100
Rumopvarmning
Træ
Halm
0
Energiforbrug 2007
Vedvarende energi 2007
Even the International Energy
Agency says that an ”Energy
Revolution” is necessary
Note:
In revolutions there are winners and
losers…
Winners understand what
challenges the future will bring and
are ready to handle them.
In the midst of the COP process…
A transition to non-fossil fuel energy
sources is a necessity and a prerequisite
for economic growth in the not too distant
future!
We need to change the way we think and speak
about dealing with climate change!
There is also a world after December 2009!!