Transcript FOE WinACC meeting Jan 2011

The latest science on
emissions , projected
temperature rises and
targets
The Cancun agreement as it stands
may commit us to 6 °C rise this
century.
'Ecocide'. Bolivia's President Evo
Morales
Update on global emissions rate
BP
2007
UN
2007
P. Friedlingstein1*,
et al 2010 Nature
Update on atmospheric
concentrations
Update on temperature rise
Global
temperature is
rising as fast in
the last decade
as in the
previous two
2010 – highest global 12 month
running mean instrumental
temperature since records began
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (2010),
Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48,
RG4004 Dec 14th
Update on temperature target
2°C no longer considered to be
safe
Knuti and
Hegerl 2008
Nature
Geosciences
By 2300 global warming could produce lethal
temperatures affecting most of the population
Sherwood and Huber PNAS May 25, 2010 vol. 107 no. 21 9552-9555
•Combustion of all available fossil fuels could produce 2.75 doublings of CO2 by
2300 . With a climate sensitivity of 4.5 °C this would give 12 °C warming
(Montenegro et al (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:L19707) .
•Temperatures >35 °C for extended periods induce hyperthermia in humans and
other mammals.
•While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming
of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question.
• With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would affect the majority of the human
population as currently distributed.
•Recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless
warming can be halted.
Most of central and eastern USA; much of South America , North Africa,
Middle East and Australia and the Indian subcontinent uninhabitable.
Sherwood and Huber PNAS May 25, 2010 vol. 107 no. 21 9552-9555
Update on global target carbon
budget.
How much carbon can burn from 2009 until 2050 and
still have a 3 in 4 chance of staying beneath 2oC?
Mean estimate 190 billion tonnes of carbon
2008 emissions 9 btc = 21 years to spend the 41 years
budget
Emissions grew at 3.3% p.a over the five years prior to
2009
Remaining reserves: gas 600 btc, oil 800 btc,
coal 1800 btc
94% of fossil fuel reserves must remain in the ground at
the end of 2050
after Schmidt, G and Archer, D “Too much of a bad thing” Nature April 2009
1 EJ = 1 exajoule or 1018 joules or ∼163 million barrels of oil. Global potential of available renewables and fossil fuels 1: Data referring
to global energy consumption of 390 EJ in 1997, data from M. Fischedick, O. Langniß, J. Nitsch: „Nach dem Ausstieg – Zukunftskurs
Erneuerbare Energien“, S. Hirzel Verlag, 2000 2: Data source: German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources.
Conclusion
We need:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
To make climate change an issue
A fair, enforceable UN agreement to halt the growth in emissions in the
next few years and thereafter drastically and progressively reduce them
to near zero by 2050. Some form of international capping system is
required.
More than 90% of existing fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground.
Massive investment in energy conservation and renewables is needed.
Generating electricity from fossil fuels without efficient carbon capture
and storage must stop.
Methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (including
(re)afforestation, biochar etc ) need to be developed and deployed on a
gigantic scale.
UK central government must play a full part in if Britain is to stay within
its fair share of the global carbon budget. Voluntarism will not work.
Local carbon budgets , carbon reduction plans