Transcript How are salmon changing in response to climate change?

Run-Timing Changes
and Resilience in Auke
Creek Salmon
David Tallmon1,2,3 & Ryan Kovach2,4
1Biology
and Marine Biology Program (UAS)
2Institute of Arctic Biology (UAF)
3School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (UAF)
4Biology and Wildlife (UAF)
Salmon Value to Alaska
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Important Cultural & Regional Icon
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Massive Ecological Value – marine nutrient &
energy input, and bioturbation
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Huge Economic Impact
> $3 billion commercial fishery (2000-09)
Important Subsistence Species
(ADFG 1999)
How are salmon changing in
response to climate change?

Temperatures are increasing and will continue to
increase.
How are salmon changing in
response to climate change?

Temperatures are increasing and will continue to
increase.
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
How are salmon changing in
response to climate change?

Temperatures are increasing and will continue to
increase.
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
What are the effects on salmon availability?
How are salmon changing in
response to climate change?

Temperatures are increasing and will continue to
increase.
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
What are the effects on salmon availability?
Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?
Auke Creek Site
NOAA permanent weir
 ~40 yrs detailed data
 Sockeye, pink, coho runs
(Dollys & cuts, too)

Outreach
pic
Auke Creek is warming.
Joyce (2011)
Is juvenile run timing changing?
Is juvenile run timing changing?
Yes, it’s earlier.
sockeye
later
coho
earlier
pinks
Dollys Cuts
Is spawning run timing changing?
Is spawning run timing changing?
earlier
later
Yes, it’s earlier.
earlier
19 days
later
Most runs are earlier (except sockeye
adults).
What are the effects of changes in
run timing on availability?
Adult salmon availability has
decreased!
Coho
Pink
(even & odd)
Sockeye
Are salmon abundances resilient to
changes? Yes, so far.
pink
sockeye
coho
λ = 1 is stable
None significantly different from stable.
What does the best dataset in Alaska say
about salmon response to climate
change?
What does the best dataset in Alaska say
about salmon response to climate
change?
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating
and immigrating earlier.
What does the best dataset in Alaska say
about salmon response to climate
change?
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating
and immigrating earlier.
What are the effects on salmon availability?
Smaller window in which ecosystem
service available for harvest.
What does the best dataset in Alaska say
about salmon response to climate
change?
Is salmon run timing changing with warming?
Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and
immigrating earlier.
What are the effects on salmon availability?
Smaller window in which ecosystem service
available for harvest.
Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?
Yes. So far all salmon spp. have stable abundances.
Unknowns.

How widespread is earlier emigration and
immigration?

Is availability decreasing throughout SE Alaska?
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What other factors influence salmon availability?
Current efforts.

Examining “run timing” genes in pink salmon…are they
evolving or adjusting?

Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best explain pink
and coho run timing  beyond stream temperature.

Examine regional patterns in salmon run timing and
abundance  regional database.

Examine archaeological data for historic Alaska Native
weirs in Southeast Alaska  regional database.
Acknowledgements
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EPSCoR
NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry Taylor
UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson, Tony Gharrett
ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project # 45965)
North Pacific Research Board (Project # 1110)
Lots of variation in phenotypic
variance trends.
sockeye
pinks
coho