Transcript CAWCR web portal & climate scenarios - Holper

CAWCR web portal & climate scenarios
Paul Holper, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, Australia
Neil Plummer, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
ACRE Workshop, Zurich, June 2008
Outline
Australia’s climate
New climate change projections for Australia
Climate data processing & delivery – Climate Projections Online
Climatic data requirements
CSIRO, CAWCR
CSIRO + BoM = CAWCR
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
~250 researchers
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Weather and Environment Prediction
Atmosphere-Land Observation and Assessment
Ocean Prediction
ACCESS
Seasonal Prediction
Climate Change
Ocean Observation and Assessment
Australia: What is our climate?
• Grappling with a changing climate and the
impacts of a 10-year dry spell in the southeast
• Past climate is no guide to that of the future
‘The future will be like living in a different
country’
Observed annual rainfall changes
May 2008 rainfall deciles
May 2008 was Australia’s driest May on record
Record runs of consecutive hot days
Source: Dr Blair Trewin,
Bureau of Meteorology
Areas in red set all-time records in March 2008 for
most consecutive days above 35°C
15 consecutive days at Adelaide – previous record 8
Adelaide hot spells
4 days >35ºC = 1/year
7 days >35ºC = 1/10 years
8 days >35ºC = 1/20 years
15 days >35ºC = 1/3000 years
Source: Dr Warwick Grace
Climate Change in Australia
Most comprehensive projections delivered in
Australia
Prepared by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
Probabilistic
State by State
Climate variables:
• temperature change, rainfall, relative humidity, solar
radiation, sea surface temperature, wind speed,
potential evapotranspiration
Years: 2030, 2050, 2070
Percentiles: 10th, 50th and 90th
Seasons + annual
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Chance of at least 1, 2, 3 or 4°C warming
Growing attention to climate change
• Massive, and growing, demand for climatic data
44,000+ unique visitors to CCIA website since launch (3 Oct. 2007)
‘Global warming was …
a strong vote-changer.’
Climate Projections Online
Current system
• Users obtain data from various sources and commission supply
of projection data
Solution
• Climate Projections Online
• ‘One stop shop’ for historical data and projections
• Promises a more consistent, streamlined approach
• Integrated historical and future climate information to improve
understanding and to better manage climate risks
The past is no longer a good guide to the future
Integration of historical climate data with
projection information
• Needed to produce realistic data required for many applications
– model output is not sufficient
• Needed because without allowing for climate change the
historical record is becoming less relevant for its traditional
uses
• Allows climate change information delivery to build upon
existing delivery mechanisms (e.g. National Climate Centre
services)
• Needed to put climate change in the context of natural
variability. Allow for climate-change-induced drift.
Many stakeholders want guidance on climate variations over the
next 10 years. Some farmers are demanding this due to concerns
over viability and succession of their farms.
• Allows future climate change to be related to an observed
baseline familiar to the user (e.g. ‘How will the 2030s compare
to the 1990s?’)
Integration of historical climate data with projection
information
Currently
2050 climate
PDF for natural variability projection
We need
1900
rainfall
rainfall
Sample obs
PDF for natural variability
and model greenhouse
signal uncertainty
2008
2100
1900
2008
2100
Specific applications
• Over the next 20-30 years what are the…
• Likely changes to temperature regimes?
• Likely changes in the nature and frequency of severe rainfall
deficiencies?
• The likely effect of projected climate changes on integrated
measures of drought?
• How are past exceptional climatic events placed in the context
of the likely frequency and severity of future climatic events?
• Government is reviewing ‘Drought Exceptional Circumstances’
funding as ‘exceptional’ events may become less so in future.
• What is the information farmers and farm businesses need to
understand their climatic situation and comment on appropriate
tools to provide such information?
Climate Projections Online: Data provision
Climate change research
Climate modelling
Knowledge of
user needs
Understanding
regional
climate change
How to do
projections
Website
enhancements
Climate provider activity
User activity
Enhanced
Climate Change
Climate Change
In Australia
In Australia
report
website
general purpose
use
Datasets for
impact assessment,
e.g. times series
I&A applications
Applying projection
methodology
Historical climate data
e.g. BOM, SILO
GCM data
Automation methods
research
Enhanced historical
climate database
GCM data
Integrated database
& website
development
Climate
Projections Online
Automated creation of datasets
and information services for
impact assessments
e.g. time series
I&A applications
Increased demand met
Simpler, quicker and
cheaper for users
More consistency across
studies
Outcomes of Climate Projections Online
• Improves decision-making
• access to better and more relevant information on climate change
• Reduced duplication
• in the construction of climate projections
• reduced risk of clients using substandard information
• Greater public exposure and acceptance of climate change
information
• Increase overall research activity
• due to lowering ‘barriers for entry’ for researchers
• Improved understanding of both climate variability and climate
change by users
• Easier for users to access climate data
• Support of policy making: local, state and national
Climatic data requirements
• Need to seamlessly link historical data to
projections
• We project lower rainfall in future, but it may
actually be greater than now!
• Need data rehabilitation and rescue; need to
digitise paper records
• No really good Australian datasets that are
internally consistent
• We have high-quality rainfall data (1900-), high-quality
temperature data (1910-); but don’t have surface pressure,
winds or other tropospheric fields. Reanalysis data will be
valuable – internally consistent, baseline data.
Conclusions
• Astonishing increase in interest in climate change
• Australia is in the grips of climate change
• Great demand in Australia for readily accessible information
and tools
• New climate change projections:
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
• Climate Projections Online proposed to integrate historical and
future climate information to improve understanding and to
better manage climate risks
• Strong need for internally consistent, comprehensive climatic
data
Paul Holper
CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research
+61 3 9239 4661
[email protected]
Thank you
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au