Transcript Draft of CIG/PSAT Talk - Canadian Columbia River Forum

So Now What Do We Do?
Planning for Climate Change
Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
Ocean
University of Washington
May 30, 2007
Canadian Columbia River Forum
Climate science in
the public interest
Responding to Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation activities
Adaptation activities
Focus on reducing
emissions of greenhouse
gases
Focus on developing the
capacity to manage the
change that occurs as
mitigation strategies are
debated and enacted.
Focus of the CIG.
What Is Adaptive Planning?
“Adaptation is not one activity or
decision, but rather a continuous set
of activities, actions, decisions, and
attitudes undertaken by individuals,
groups, and governments.”
-- Adger et al. 2005
…with the objective of
Increasing community and ecosystem
resilience to climate change impacts
Why Adaptive Planning?
• Significant climate change impacts are projected, and
the impacts expected within the next few decades are
largely unavoidable.
• Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every
day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s
vulnerabilities.
• Significant time is required to motivate and develop
adaptive capacity, and to implement changes
• Increasing evidence that it will cost more to retrofit for
climate resilience than to build it in in the first place.
The “Hows” of Adaptive Planning
• How do you build and maintain support for
adaptive planning?
• How sensitive are you to climate change?
(remember changes in other stresses, e.g. population
growth)
• How adaptable are your natural and managed
systems?
• How vulnerable are you? (the “sum” of your
sensitivity and adaptability)
• How can you change policies, etc. to reduce
this vulnerability?
Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity
• The resource is already stressed in ways that
limit adaptation to future climate change;
• Other non-climate trends are likely to increase
stress on the resource;
• The resource’s ability to adapt is physically
limited;
• Management of the resource is highly
fragmented; and/or
• The policies, etc. affecting a resource are
inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).
Policy “Red Flags”
Characteristics of policies governing climate-sensitive
resources that can limit adaptability:
• Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and
adjustment in accordance with changing conditions
• Policies that require planning based strictly on the
past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain
periods or seasonal patterns
• Policies reinforcing trends that increase vulnerability
or reduce adaptability (e.g., development along flood
plains)
General Goals in
Planning for Climate Change
• Improve community awareness of and
preparedness for global warming impacts.
• Build in recognition of a changing climate.
• Reverse trends that increase vulnerability to climate.
• Increase the robustness of long term climatesensitive decisions and investments.
• Increase the flexibility of vulnerable managed
systems.
• Enhance the adaptability of vulnerable natural
systems.
General Options for Planning
Modify existing policies,
practices, and procedures
•
•
•
•
•
•
Build new or upgrade existing •
•
infrastructure
•
Improve community
awareness and
understanding
•
•
Transboundary agreements
Operating guidelines
Decision-making frameworks and
changed management
paradigms
Utility rates
Best management practices
Zoning, building codes
New or modified dams?
New turbines? Improved fish
ladders?
New irrigation infrastructure?
Public outreach/organizational
“inreach”
Partnership building with other
communities/organizations
Possible Options for Adapting
M&I Water Demands
• Adjust reservoir operations for a changing climate.
• Encourage conservation.
• Use market forces to reduce demand during critical
periods.
• Connect and expand water infrastructure.
• Support technical innovations (e.g., advanced
wastewater treatment and reuse)
• Encourage flexibility in water allocation using water
banks, water pools, and water markets.
Possible Options for Adapting Hydro
Operations
• Adjust reservoir operations / hydro generation rule
curves for a changing climate.
• Conserve electricity to reduce overall demand.
• Use market forces to reduce electricity demand
during critical periods.
• Purchase power on the open market to reduce
pressure on the hydro system.
• Increase capacity, diversity, and interconnectivity
of hydropower generation.
• Shift electricity production toward renewables,
nuclear or thermal generation to reduce pressure
on the hydro system.
Possible Options for Adapting Fish
Management
• Evaluate climate change impacts through entire
fish life cycles and manage accordingly.
• Integrate climate change information into salmon
recovery planning.
• Improve water quality by reducing pollution.
• Maintain biodiversity and protect diverse fish
habitats.
• Find ways to reduce summer water temperatures
and supplement low summer streamflows.
• Consider creative engineering solutions that will
aid fish migration and improve fish environments.
Possible Options for Adapting
Agriculture
• Manage agricultural industry for a changing
climate (e.g., promote greater use of heatresistant, pest-resistant, and disease-resistant
crops)
• Provide incentives for improved water
conservation.
• Use market forces to distribute water (e.g.,
water banking/water markets).
• Diversify and expand water infrastructure.
Managing Risk and Uncertainty
• Risk and uncertainty are (and always will be) a part of all
decision-making exercises
• Implement “no regrets” / “low regrets” strategies
– “No regrets” (or “win-win”) strategies provide benefits
today as well as in the future (e.g., conservation program)
– “Low regrets” strategies provide benefits at relatively little
cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% more reservoir capacity in
anticipation of climate change impacts)
• Modeling to consider “what if” scenarios
More information on PNW climate impacts and
planning for climate change is available from
The Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.ed/cig
Lara Whitely Binder
[email protected]