Transcript FPL104

Planning for Climate
Change
Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
Ocean
University of Washington
October 16, 2007
US EPA Region X Climate Change Series
Climate science in
the public interest
• Motivation for writing grew
out of October 2005 King
County climate change
conference
• Written by the CIG and King
County, WA in association
with ICLEI – Local
Governments for
Sustainability
• Written to compliment
ICLEI’s “Climate Resilient
Communities” Program
• Focused on the process
(not a sector), and written
for a national audience
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml
Responding to Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation activities
Adaptation activities
Focus on reducing
emissions of greenhouse
gases
Focus on developing the
capacity to manage the
change that occurs as
mitigation strategies are
debated and enacted.
Focus of the CIG.
What Is Adaptive Planning?
“climate proof”
What Is Adaptive Planning?
Aims to increase community and
ecosystem resilience to climate change
by taking steps to proactively reduce the
risks associated with climate change.
Most importantly…
“Adaptation is not one activity or decision,
but rather a continuous set of activities,
actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken
by individuals, groups, and governments.”
-- Adger et al. 2005
Why Adaptive Planning?....
• Significant climate change impacts are
projected, and the impacts expected within the
next few decades are largely unavoidable.
• Decisions with long-term impacts are being
made every day. Today’s choices will shape
tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.
• Significant time is required to motivate and
develop adaptive capacity, and to implement
changes.
• In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to
retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in
the first place. (And there may be benefits…)
21st Century Global Warming
IPCC “best estimate”
range of global-scale
warming by the
2090s:
3.2°F-7.2°F
Warming in the next
few decades driven
by current
atmospheric GHG
concentrations
Data source: IPCC 2001
Projected 21st Century PNW Warming
• Mean change: +2°F (2020s), +3°F (2040s)
• Rate of change expected to be 3x greater
• Warming expected in all seasons
+2.9ºF
(1.4-4.6ºF)
+1.9ºF
(0.7-3.2ºF)
Changes relative to 1970-1999
More detail on the CIG scenarios is available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml
Why Adaptive Planning (cont’d)?....
• Significant climate change impacts are
projected, and the impacts expected within the
next few decades are largely unavoidable.
• Decisions with long-term impacts are being
made every day. Today’s choices will shape
tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.
• Significant time is required to motivate and
develop adaptive capacity, and to implement
changes.
• In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to
retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in
the first place. (And there may be benefits…)
The real cause of the melting ice caps
Planning for Climate Change
• Collect and review basic information on
climate change impacts to your region
• Build internal and external support for climate
change preparedness
• Create your preparedness team
• Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to
climate change
• Develop and implement your preparedness
plan
• Measure your progress and update your plan
Planning for Climate Change at EPA
At the agency and program level (via cross-disciplinary team
and program-level teams):
• Collect and review basic information on climate
change impacts to Region X
• Review EPA programs and regulations for
climate change impacts.
– Which programs/regs govern resources likely to
be affected by climate change?
– How will climate change affect the objectives of
those programs/regs?
– How adaptive are the programs/regs? (Look for
qualities that limit adaptive capacity)
Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity
• The resource is already stressed by current
climate in ways that limit adaptation to future
climate change;
• Other non-climate trends are likely to increase
stress on the resource;
• The resource’s ability to adapt is physically
limited;
• Management of the resource is highly
fragmented; and/or
• The policies, etc. affecting a resource are
inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).
Policy “Red Flags”
Flexibility is essential. Characteristics of policies governing
climate-sensitive resources that can limit adaptability:
• Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and
adjustment in accordance with changing conditions
• Policies that require planning based only on the
past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain
periods or seasonal patterns (e.g., FEMA regs)
• Policies that reinforce trends that increase
vulnerability or reduce adaptability (e.g., development
along flood plains)
EPA Planning cont’d
Question to consider (cont’d):
– How should these programs/regs be modified (if
at all) to take climate change into account?
– What other stakeholders need to be involved in
modifying EPA programs/regs?
• Develop and implement your plan for integrating
climate change into EPA programs, regs, grants.
• Build internal and external support for climate
change preparedness with EPA and among
EPA’s constituents
• Measure your progress and update your plan
Guiding Principles for Planning
• Increase public awareness of climate change
and projected impacts
• Develop and maintain technical capacity to
prepare for climate change impacts
• “Mainstream” information about climate change
vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into
planning, policy, and investment decisions
• Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural,
and human systems in your community.
• Strengthen community partnerships that reduce
vulnerability and risk.
General Implementation Tools
• Zoning rules and regulations
• Taxation (including tax incentives)
• Building codes/design standards
• Utility rates/fee setting
• Public safety rules and regulations
• Issuance of bonds
• Infrastructure development
• Permitting and enforcement
• Best management practices
• Outreach and education
• Emergency management powers
• Partnership building with other communities
Planning for Uncertainty
Look to implement
• “No regrets” strategies
Provides benefits now with or without
climate change (e.g., water conservation
program)
• “Low regrets” strategies
Provide climate change benefits for little
additional cost or risk (e.g., adding 10%
capacity rather than 5%)
• “Win-win” strategies
Reduce climate change impacts while
providing other environmental, social, or
economic benefits (e.g., wetlands protection)
Current PNW State Efforts
• Washington “PAWGs” (Preparation/Adaptation Work
Groups)
– Formed under the Gov’s Climate Change Challenge
– Coasts, Human Health, Forests, Agriculture, Water
– Recommendations to Gov. due December 2007
• Oregon Climate Change Integration Group
– Natural Systems (ecosystems and organisms), Human
Services (public health, emergency management), Built
Environment (buildings and infrastructure), Economic
Systems
– Drafts in preparation
Summary
• Global and regional climate is already changing
• These changes are expected to accelerate in the
coming decades
• Changes in snowpack and streamflow caused by
rising temperatures will have important
consequences for resources across the Pacific
Northwest
• The information and the tools to begin planning for
climate change exist now
More information on PNW climate impacts and
planning for climate change is available from
The Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.ed/cig
Lara Whitely Binder
[email protected]