Transcript Sustainable North Pacific Natural Resource-Dependent

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Sustainable North Pacific Natural Resource-Dependent Coastal Communities
Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change
Vincent Gallucci – [email protected]
Robert Foy – [email protected]
Marc L. Miller – [email protected]
Management Policy
Responses
• Ecosystem Management
Quantitative Responses
• Complex adaptive systems
Quantitative Responses
•Adaptive Policy/Law
1. Stock assessment
3. Resilience framework
-Magnuson Stevens Act
Management Policy
Responses
-Endangered Species
-Marine Mammal
-Elasmobranchs/other
•Strategies
-Transform to new state by
education
-Enhance adaptability and
sustainability
•Adapt to new species
introductions
•Objective: To develop resilience
•Decadal
Oscillations
•BOTTOM UP…seek to enhance
resilience
Climate change
•TOP DOWN…for minimally
resilient/sustainable, manage
policy to assist
•Warming
•El Nino
•Adapt to broad and local
extinctions
-Increase
resiliency
2.K-phase: consolidation/conserve
3.Ω-phase: collapse/release
Apply locally beginning in different
phases
• Mathematical/Statistical models
•Government Policies
•Innovation
•Government/NGO
-Decrease risk forecasting
1.r-phase: growth/harvest freely
Community Responses
• Implement broad coastal zone
resource dependent community
policy
•Future Protections
• Four phase cycle
2. Risk Analysis
4. Adaptive cycle theory
Trophic Interactions (Food web) Responses
Uncertainty in climate change and in trophic respect
Trophic Interaction Responses
Fisheries
Commercial - Artisanal
Community Responses
Adaptive response of communities
•Subsistence and Employment
•Cultural resiliency
•Social-ecological societies (SES)
(ability to absorb disturbance)
Mammals
Cetaceans/Pinnipeds
•Traditional/Ceremonial
Sharks
Piscivorous Groundfish
Salmon/Pollock/Herring
Smelt/Squid/Euphausiids
•Fishery
•Tourism
Mythoscape
•Adaptation under globalization
Temporal scale of response to climate
change: From Berkes
and Jolly 2001