Transcript Adaptability - International Institute for Sustainable Development

Adaptive Policymaking
for Agriculture, Water Resources
and Climate Change
Designing Policies that can Adapt to
a World of Uncertainty, Change and Surprise
COP 11, Montreal
9 December 2005
Why Study Adaptive Polices?
The world’s poor are most heavily dependant on agroecological services, and most vulnerable to deteriorating
environmental conditions, worsened but not necessarily
created by climate change [IPCC, 2001].
Climate Phenomena
Higher Maximum
likely)
Higher
likely)
Temperature
(very


Climate Impact
increased heat stress in livestock
increased risk of damage to a
number of crops
Key point:
critical impacts and
vulnerabilities are in
agriculture and water
resources
Minimum
Temperatures
(very


More Intense Precipitation Events (very
likely)
Increased Tropical Cyclone
(likely - over some areas)
intensity




Increased Droughts and Floods associated
with El Nino events
(likely - over some areas)
Increased Asian Monsoon Variability
(likely)


decreased risk of damage to a
number of crops and increased risk
to others
extended range of some pest and
disease vectors
increased flood, landslide and
mudslide damage
increased soil erosion
increased risks to human life, risk
of infectious disease epidemics,
many others
increase
damage
go
coastal
ecosystems such as coral reefs and
mangroves
decreased
agricultural
and
rangeland productivity in drought
and flood-prone regions
increased
flood
and
drought
magnitude and damages
The details are, however, unknowable:
global and regional perspectives
The Need: recent IDRC research
[Moench et al, 2003]
“When situations are characterized by
variability, uncertainty and change,
conventional planning scenarios
provide little guidance regarding
future needs and conditions.”
“Specific solutions are less important
than the existence of processes and
frameworks that enable solutions to
be identified and implemented as
specific constraints and contexts
change.”
Civil aviation policy of Netherlands:
expansion of Schiphol airport
“If we were able to predict the future
accurately, preferred policies could
be identified in principle by simply
examining the future that would
follow from the implementation of
each possible policy.”
Project Research Premise
 the adaptive capacity and resilience of
communities is a critical aspect in the transition to
sustainable development…
 and one of the important factors in building
adaptive and resilient communities is for the public
policies, which influence the behaviour of
communities, to themselves be adaptive and
resilient to uncertainty, change and surprise.
Research Hypothesis
Policies and instruments that are adaptive have specific
characteristics and mechanisms that make them adaptive
These characteristics and mechanisms are poorly understood at
both a practical and theoretical level.
Project Goal
To advance the understanding of adaptive policies
and policy instruments to help government
agriculture and water resource policymakers at the
local, state and federal levels to design adaptive
policies – policies that have the following
characteristics:
 Robustness - the ability to be effective under a range of
anticipated conditions.
 Adaptability - the ability of a policy instrument to respond
well to unanticipated circumstances and longer-term change.
Adapted from Walker, W.E., S.A. Rahman, and J. Cave 2001. Adaptive policies, policy
analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research 128: 282-289.
Our Current Conceptual Thinking
Rules and Delivery
Policy Design
Policy
Implementation
Objective
Setting
Operation
Instrument
Rules
Instrument
Design
Understanding
the Issue
Monitoring,
Evaluation &
Improvement
Delivery
System
Development
Staff
Training
Instrument
Delivery
Learning &
Improvement
Idealized illustration of policy design and
implementation
Monitoring &
Evaluation
Adaptability Via Monitoring, Learning
and Improvement
Others’ actions
Unforeseen events
Changing
preferences
Stage Setting
Assembling a Basic
Policy
Walker et al.
(2001)
Reassessment
Certain
Vulnerabilities
Uncertain
Signposts
Mitigating actions
Hedging actions
Triggers
Corrective
actions
Defensive
actions
from Walker, W.E., S.A. Rahman, and J. Cave 2001. Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research 128: 282-289.
Adaptability Via Defining Characteristics
Examples:




Ensure that social capital remains intact
(Ruitenbeek and Cartier 2001).
Create opportunity for self-organisation and
build networks of reciprocal interaction that
foster trust and cooperation (Berkes et al.
2003; Glouberman et al. 2003; Axelrod and
Cohen 2000)
Promote variation and redundancy (Berkes et
al.; Glouberman et al.)
Combine experiential and experimental
knowledge (Berkes et al.)
Insights from Case Study Research –
Canada’s Crow Rate
War Measures Act
Suspends Crow Rates
Crow Rates Restored for
Grain and Flour
Manitoba Government
Requests Change:
Crow Rtes put into
Railway Act as
“statutory grain rates”
Crow Rates extended to
westbound export grain
shipped to west coast
Crow’s Nest
Pass Act
1897
1903
Western Grain
Transportation
Act terminated
Crow Rates extended to
rapeseed and flaxseed.
1919
1922 1925
Inflationary period
due to pressures
of First World War
1927
1946
Crow Rates terminated
and replaced with
Western Grain
Transportation Act
1961
1984
Period of revenue loss for
railways sparks a chain of studies
to understand the issue
War time price controls
lifted
Temporary maximum
freight rate period ends
All producer payments
completed
1996 2001
Lower than
anticipated inflation
since
Substantial drop in grain prices
Sources: Excerpts from Rothstein (1989); Earl (1996); Schmitz et al. 2002)
Insights from Case Study Research –
Canada’s Crow Rate
High Flexibility
1984-1996
Robustness
(capability to deal with a
range of circumstances
through discretion)
1897-1925
1925-1984
Low Flexibility
Adaptability
(the capability to recognize a significant change in conditions, interpret
and learn from the information, and make necessary changes)
India Case Study Research – Background
 Vulnerability of
Indian agriculture to
climate change
 Poor insurance
penetration
- informal sector
excluded
 Rural credit –
indebtedness –
poverty
Variation during 1960-82 of (a) rice yield over the Indian region (b) total food grain production (c) all-India rainfall (Source: Gadgil 1996)
Insights from India case study research:
Evolution of crop insurance
National agriculture
insurance scheme
Comprehensive crop
insurance scheme
Pilot crop
insurance
scheme
Experimental
individual
scheme
1972
Green
Revolution
1978 1979
1984
Insurance linked to
short-term credit
2% premium, subsidy
for small farmers
Basic rainfed
foodgrains covered
Very poor coverage
of farmers
Very low premium to
claims ratio
1985
Experimental
crop
insurance
scheme
1991
Economic
reforms
Higher premiums
(subsidy for small
farmers to be phased
out)
Option of higher risk
for higher premium
Extended to nonloanee farmers
Commercial crops
included
Coverage and
financial viability still
an issue
1997/8 1999
IRDA Act
Entry of
private and
foreign
players
2001
High
level
task
force
Farm
income
insurance
scheme
For wheat
and paddy
To replace
NAIS
Weather
indexed
insurance
MFIs, SHGs,
village
internet
kiosks
2003
2004
AIC takes
over from
GIC
Working group
for Xth Plan
Insights from India case study research
Crop insurance robust by definition: helps
deal with range of weather conditions
 Problems: coverage, financial viability, adverse selection
 Long delays in payment of claims
 Small and marginal farmers lose out
Weather indexed insurance MORE robust
 Minimizes adverse selection
 No need to draw up and monitor individual contracts
 Protects overall income rather than yield of specific crop
 Improves farmers’ risk profile and access to bank credit
 Quick payouts can improve recovery times
 Important role for micro finance institutions
 Need for institutional backing
Adaptability
 Periodic review and improvement of crop insurance
 Weather insurance learning from pilot schemes
Future Activities
 Community-level research
 Conducted in India by TERI and
Canada by IISD
 To identify the characteristics and
mechanisms of policy instruments that
can adapt to surprises and longer-term
changes
 Synthesis Paper No.1 (available April
2006).
Project Website and
Contact Information
www.iisd.org/climate/canada/adaptive_policy.asp
Preety Bhandari
The Energy and Resources Institute
[email protected]
Stephan Barg
International Institute for Sustainable Development
[email protected]