Transcript SP8_Boers
Optimized fractional cloudines determination from five ground-based remote sensing techniques Or What is the average of Yes and No? [presentation Vaisala award 2012] R. Boers1, M. de Haij1, W. Wauben1, H. Klein Baltink1, B. v Ulft1, M. Savenije1, C. Long2 1KNMI, Netherlands 2PNL, USA Special thanks to our managers! 1) Dr. F. Brouwer, Director of KNMI, Dutch Permanent Representative of WMO 2) Dr. B. v Oord, Head, R&D Infrastructure Department, KNMI 3) Dr. R. v Oss, Head, Regional Climate Department, KNMI KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 This is a talk about climate monitoring………… with a potential conflict between 1) Free data access and 2) Budget restrictions KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 Let’s talk about your neighbour…. He/she .. • • • • • Is computer literate, has PC Has internet connection Is interested in climate and weather Is sceptical about climate change Knows about free data access; after all: he/she is a lawabiding citizen and taxpayer, and deserves to have access • Knows how to make a graph or two with .xls • Has some free time on his/her hands KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 A KNMI time series of fractional cloudiness KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 What is the chance that he/she will think: • It’s published on the Internet, therefore it must be true. I have found climate change! If I can make this graph with little problems: Why haven’t those guys at the Weather Service picked this up? What are they doing up there? KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-Ceilometer was born TheKNMI, Observer died, the 2012 true true true Climate A management KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10change decision 2012 Climate change • So, the graph conveys two truths: 1) About climate change 2) About a management decision to change observations • Your neighbour is asked to discern between these two truths. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 For the interpretation of these type of graphs you need climate monitoring experts. What are the perfect qualifications? 1) Start Young, Die Old 2) Autistic /Myopic 3) Asocial 4) Micromanager 5) Ultraconservative 6) Ultrapersistent 7) No ambition, no upward mobility 8) No wish to publish anything 9) Low pay not a problem 10) No internet connection, no Twitter, 11) No Facebook • Be a nerd!!! KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 Observer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 The transformation from an Observer to a Ceilometer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 yes no yes yes yes no KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 yes yes yes A Ceilometer is a colourblind Observer with a telescope and a serious spinal injury KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 With a ceilometer, it’s either Yes or No. The average of Yes and No does not exist. The Ceilometer The Observer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 More of either Yes or No After the Management Decision KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012 Is a Ceilometer the solution to continue cloud monitoring for climate purposes? Only in a very limited sense. It is a columnar method. Can we find better ways? Yes, we can! We have proven that hemispheric methods yield results that better emulate the Observer. Suggested solution: A sky scanning IR radiometer: Nubiscope combined with a KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10Scanning ceilometer 2012 Thank you for your attention! KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-102012