Transcript 3rd Workshop on the Use of Satellite Data for Climate Applications

3rd Workshop on the Use of Satellite Data for Climate Applications
Zagreb, Croatia, 03-07 November 2008
Serhat ŞENSOY
Engineer
Climatology Division
Climate system is comprised by the
complicated interactions among the
atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere,
the surface lithosphere and the biosphere.
Energy from the sun drives the earth’s
weather and climate, and heats the earth’s
surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back
into space. The greenhouse effect is a
necessary phenomenon. Without it, earth
temperature would be -18°C. But the
greenhouse gases trap some of the outgoing
energy and maintain Earth’s temperature
15°C. However, too many greenhouse gases
could increase in mean temperatures
Climate of Turkey
 Turkey is located in subtropical zone
 It has diverse climatic features; but mainly Mediterranean type
 several climatic sub-regions appear
(Black-Sea, Mediterranean, Continental)

What determines climate of Turkey ?
-Geographical Location and General Circulation Patterns
 Being a transition zone for air masses and fronts (polar & tropical)
 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
 Physical Factors
 complex topographic features
 high elevation and orientation of mountain chains
 distance to sea (continentality)
A big difference is observed in the total rainfall between coastal and inland
stations, are compared
1. Monthly climate assessments
Anomaly is the differences from normal and it is determining by using Z
standardized normal distribution (Z=(X-Xmean) /STD). If Z < -0.97 it means that
this station value is below normal, if Z is between -0.97 to 0.97, near normal,
and if Z > 0.97 it means this value above normal. Calculations have been done
by using Excel and ArcGIS is using for interpolation and monitoring purposes
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MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON
25
TEMP. °C
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
2
3
4
5
6
71-00-Norm
7
8
2007
9
2008
10
11
12
2. Seasonal climate assessments
SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON
30
25
TEMP. °C
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
2
3
4
5
6
71-00-Norm
7
8
2007
9
2008
10
11
12
Seasonal Rainfall Distribution
3. Annual climate assessments
*This study had been an input in NOAA NCDC Annual Statement
4. Heating and cooling degree-days
Heating and cooling degree-day is the unit which useful to indicate how much
time cold/warm in the day.
Formula:
HDD = (18 °C - Tm) x d
CDD = (Tm - 22) x d
where;
Tm = daily mean temp.
d= n. of days
In the year 2007, heating degree days has been
decreased except S. Anatolia Region; while
cooling degree days has been increased all over
Turkey with parallel to the increased temperature.
5. Climate classification
The purpose of classification is to organize a set of data or information about
something to effectively communicate it in an informative way. In this study,
Aydeniz, Erinç, De Martonne, Trewartha and Thornthwaite method have been
used for Turkey climate classification.
CLIMATE DIAGRAM of TURKEY
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75
25
60
20
45
15
30
10
15
5
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Precip.
7
8
9
Temp.
10
11
12
(°C)
(mm)
90
6. Climate Atlas of Turkey
9. N. of days with…
10. TREND ANALYSES
Turkey precipitation's trend - TSMS
y = -0,2917x + 656,92
R2 = 0,0079
800
mm
700
600
500
precipitation
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
1947
1945
1943
1941
400
Doğrusal (precipitation)
Annual average precipitation of Turkey for the 1971-2000 climatic periods is about
640mm and has 29mm/100 years decreasing trend.
Turkiye ortalama sıcaklık trendi
Turkey mean temperature's trend - TSMS
Trend y = 0.0064x + 13.474
2
R = 0.0422
15.0
14.0
13.0
Ortalama sıcaklık
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
1947
1945
1943
12.0
1941
mean temperature °C
16.0
Doğrusal (Ortalama sıcaklık)
Turkey mean temperature for the 1971-2000 climatic periods is about 13°C and
has 0.64°C/100 years increasing trend.
11. Climate Change Detection, Monitoring & Indices
Indices software
RClimDex produced on
behalf of the ET by Xuebin
Zhang from Met. Service of
Canada
http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
prec.
p.
Indices Results
Trends in N. of summer days (a), tropical nights (b), warm nights(c) and warm days (d)
Contribution
to the Global
Indices
Analyses
12. Extreme event monitoring
Small changes in the mean can cause a large
change in the likelihood of extreme event.
Extreme events vs. Temp. Anomaly
The highest precipitation amount by
measurement at standart times in Turkey.
13. Heat Index
Calculation&
Monitoring
Heat Index Formula:
(HI) = -42.379 + 2.04901523(T) +
10.14333127(RH) - 0.22475541(T)(RH) - ((6.83783 x 10-3) (T2) - ((5.481717 x 10-2)(RH2) +
((1.22874 x 10-3)(T2)(RH)) + ((8.5282 x 10-4)(T)(RH2)) – ((1.99 x 10-6)(T2)(RH2))
14. PRECIS REGIONAL MODEL’S OUTPUTS FOR TURKEY
15. To follow climate change information from IPCC
Precipitation Projection, IPCC, AR4
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–
2099, relative to 1980–1999.
Multi model projections show
increasing precipitation in the north latitude but decreasing in the
Mediterranean.
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in
the sign of the change
Temperature Projection, IPCC, AR4
Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century.
If the PDF is widespread, it means too many extreme event could be occurred.
Serhat Sensoy
[email protected]