Transcript Diapositiva 1

CLIMATE CHANGE
RELATED
STATISTICS OTHER
THAN THOSE
RELATED TO GHG
INVENTORIES
Evaluating Economic Policy Instruments for
Sustainable Water Management in Europe
The research leading to these results has received funding from the
European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) /
grant agreement n° 265213 – project EPI-WATER “Evaluating Economic
Policy Instrument for Sustainable Water Management in Europe”.
Jaroslav MYSIAK
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei,
Euro-Mediterranean Center
on Climate Change
Main messages
- Valuable: The extended participation of NSOs in the
knowledge-production for the sake of better understanding
of climate risk and adaptation is valuable and welcome,
- Evil is in the detail: The review of the data needs and
opportunities for better data provision is very broad and
lacks details about:
- Economic value of better and more accessible data,
- How embedded in the National Statistical Systems/Data
infrastructure, consideration of subsidiarity principle
(keywords update and quality insurance),
- Priorities: To make a tangible difference, set the priorities,
identify the quick gains/practices implementable with low
costs and high benefits.
Climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation
- From GHG emissions to specific, spatially explicit impacts,
and/or vice-verse, from individual behaviour to (large-scale)
pattern of GHG emissions,
- A web of interrelated components, some of which are
known or knowable, others analysed through experimental
design,
- Advancement of methods and tools hampered by lack of
reliable, sufficiently documented, spatially explicit, and
accessible data,
- (At least partly) different requirements for slow on-set events
compared with extreme meteorological events.
Responding to policies
- 2012 UNEP review shed light on the internationally agreed
(and for the most part not fulfilled) goals and targets, but for
most of them the up-to-date data is not available.
- EU 2020 Strategy on the way to low carbon, resource
efficient and sustainable economy, and EU environmental
and climate change policies contain many (additional)
targets.
- Unclear terms, lengthily negotiation, retrospective data
collection.
Difficulty to align NSS with IPCC
- IPCC’s (mandated with an assessment not a review of
existing knowledge about climate change impacts):
confidence and uncertainty.
- Uncertainty cascade - dealing with multiple possible
pathways, hence a number of assumption
- Multitude of methodologies, tools and pathways
depending on the policies adopted to induce reduction of
GHG emission and incentivise private autonomous
adaptation
Practical examples
Costs of climate extremes
- Incomplete coverage: Only direct losses are counted for,
neglecting the indirect and intangible losses. Only few records
equipped with economic estimates.
- Trend detection: normalisation does not account for risk mitigation
(e.g. land use changes, river modification) and governance (e.g.
enforcement of building restrictions)
(Wider) Impacts of environmental policies
- Quickly changing environment, monitoring of the deployed
tariffs, taxes and transfers:
- Craftwork: counterfactuals, base-line scenarios
- Social impact analysis requires information about the users
Flood risk assessment: Learning from the past
Flood risk assessment: Learning from the past
Flood risk assessment Indirect losses
1. General Equilibrium
model ICES, refined for
Italy ino three
geographic macroareas
(North, Centre, South).
2. Affected labour and
capital obtained from
hydrological
simulations, statistical
bereau census data,
municipal level.
3. Different elasticity of
substitution – mode
variants.
Flood risk assessment Data poor regions
On March 31th and
April 1st, 2013, Port
Luis, the capital of the
Republic of Mauritius
was hit by torrential
rainfall with estimated return period >
300 years. Precipitation over 3 hours exceeded 150 mm.
Role of the NSS and NSO
COLLECTION of data, CERTFICATION insurance,
provision of ACCESS
- Cost arguments, subsidiarity principle
- Measurable is only what is prescribed
- Exploitation of data. (Thanks for the facts. Now sell them)
- Data assimilation
Recognise opportunities
More quick gains than access to micro-data:
- improve access to and demonstrate possible
applications of the existing data sets,
- avoid duplication of data collection (e.g. multiple
monitoring of land consumption/soil sealing),
- assimilate data from other sources, negotiate access to
proprietary data.
Revision of the existing data collection campaigns,
Foresight studies beyond demographic growth
- land use change, soil sealing, urban sprawl, innovation and
technology diffusion (caveats: driven by policy)
Questions
ORIGINAL DATA COLLECTION: Knowing what data is or
might/will be required and in what detail requires permanent dialog
with the users’ communities. Often the indicators of progress
towards achieving certain policy goal are negotiated and/or agreed
on only successively and major efforts are needed to establish the
base year/line conditions.
- Q: To what extent is it possibly to redesign the existing data
collection campaigns to meet the needs of others?
- Q: How to ensure continuity of data collection and
comparability of collected data under changing policy
requirements?
Questions (cont.)
QUALITY ENSURANCE: NSO are the most authoritative data
providers/sources. The multiple users look upon the NSOs for
reliable, easily accessible and well documented data sets, often for different
purposes. While it is very valuable to extend the NSOs operation so
as to provide better information for climate adaptation policies, this
should not compromise the quality of the information services
provided.
Q: Are the NSOs prepared and able to i) certify quality (e.g.
consistency and reliability) of data provided by/gained from other
organisations, and ii) maintain the data?
Questions (cont.)
Q: Are the existing NSOs’ metadata information systems prepared to
deal with potentially large data set provided by others? (This does
not refer only to the access and storage capacity but also human
resources and procedures to describe the content and quality of the
data).
Thank you!
This research project has received funding from
the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / grant agreement n° 265213 –
Project EPI-WATER “Evaluating Economic Policy Instrument for Sustainable Water Management in Europe”.