Transcript FELTMATE

Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Flooding:
A Property & Casualty Perspective on
De-Risking the Canadian Housing Market
Evergreen Brick Works
Urban Watershed Forum
March 20, 2015
“Weather Gone Wild”
CBC Documentary
Dr. Blair Feltmate
Intact Chair, Climate Change Adaptation
Faculty of Environment
University of Waterloo
[email protected]
Ph: 226-339-3506
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Agenda
1. Climate change & extreme weather – things will get worse
2. Costs of climate change & extreme weather – going up
3. De-Risking the System – P&C Perspective
1.
2.
3.
Flood plain maps
Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program (NIAP)
Home Adaptation Audit Program (HAAP)
4. Conclusions
2
2
Large Catastrophic Losses
3
Alberta and Toronto Floods
Eastern Ice Storm
Slave Lake Fire
Ontario Wind and Rain
Quebec Floods
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3
WHAT SCIENCE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
World Energy Supply
Source: International Energy Agency
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century [0.08 oC/decade for past 100 years].
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Extreme weather is a serious problem for major Canadian
cities to address from the perspective of adaptation – now
and 30 years from now.
100%
Highly Disagree
90%
80%
Somewhat Disagree
70%
Neutral
60%
Somewhat Agree
50%
40%
Highly Agree
30%
Don't know
20%
10%
n = 16
0%
Now
In 30 years
Is floodplain mapping sufficiently understood in the regions identified that
underwriting (risk exposure) due to flooding can be adequately calculated?
(Y = Yes, N = No, DK = Don’t Know)
*
6
Eastern Canada
(Don’t Know = 8)
Very High
Very High
Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account
for new and future extremes in precipitation.
44
55
Central Canada
(Don’t Know = 6)
11
11
22
33
11
Very Low
Very Low
11
11
Feasibility
Feasibility
33
Very Low
Urgency
Very High
Very Low
Urgency
Very High
*consistent with
P&C executives
7
66
Western Canada
(Don’t Know = 6)
Very High
Very High
Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account
for new and future extremes in precipitation.
11
Northern Canada
(Don’t Know = 9)
1
11
Feasibility
Feasibility
44
11
11
22
22
11
1
Very Low
Urgency
2
Very High
Very Low
Very Low
11
Very Low
Urgency
Very High
*consistent with
P&C executives
8
For flood insurance to be profitable for your company, infrastructure (natural
and built) under the direction of government control would have to be
substantially “flood hardened” relative to its current condition.
Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program - NIAP
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If provided with overland flood insurance, the average homeowner will
initiate and maintain action(s) to limit the probability of flooding around his/her
home (e.g., moving downspouts away from house, ensuring outside sewer
grates are clear, elevating electrical equipment off basement floor, etc.).
Home Adaptation Audit Program – HAAP
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HOME ADAPTATION AUDIT PROGRAM (HAAP)
Home Adaptation Audit Program – well received by (e.g.,):
• Federal Government
o Environment, Finance, NRCan, Public Safety
• Provincial Governments (Ontario, Alberta, Quebec)
o Ministers, DMs, ADMs, DGs
• Federation of Canadian Municipalities
• Association of Municipalities of Ontario
• Conservation Authorities
Program Focuses on 100 Points of Audit Reference
• e.g., eaves & downspouts, window wells, sump pumps/power supply
• 2-3 audits/day/auditor
• ROI – preventing 3 flooded basements/auditor/year pays for the program
Going Forward
• develop training material
• Administered by whom? – role of Feds (NRC), provinces, private organization(s)?
• Who pays? -- homeowner, municipality, provincial subsidy?
• Role of insurers? Risk adjusted premium? Lower deductible? Higher Cap. Limit?
• Role of Banks? Inclusion in mortgage home inspections (No UFFI)
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Conclusion
1) Develop up-to-date flood plain maps that anticipate the
future
2) Weather harden municipal and sub-urban infrastructure
(physical and natural) – launch a national “Natural
Infrastructure Adaptation Program”
3) Launch a “Home Adaptation Audit Program”
Not adapting to climate change/extreme
weather is a “bet we cannot afford to lose”
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