Transcript Climate Change and Climate Variability

Climate Change and Climate Variability
: Bangladesh Perspectives
Ainun Nishat Ph.D.
Country Representative
IUCN-Bangladesh Country Office
Climate Change and Developing Countries
14 June, 2007
Introduction
• What is projected to happen and adverse
impacts that we are facing in Bangladesh.
• What are common peoples’ perceptions in
Bangladesh.
• Responses of Bangladesh to Climate Change
Regime.
Climate Change and Developing Countries
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Some Definitions……
Climate Change: any change in climate over time.
Climate variability: variations in the mean state
and other statistics (such as occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and
spatial scales.
Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing
environment..
Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
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Climate Change and Developing Countries
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Is Climate Change real …..?
• IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably
changed on both global and regional scales since the preindustrial era. The just-released IPCC-FAR(2007), confirms that
Climate change is due to increase in concentration of GHGs.
• Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer
earliest and most’.
• Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface
temperature, and sea level are projected to increase under all
IPCC emissions scenarios during the 21st Century.
• CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial
revolution to about 380 ppm now. It may reach 800+ ppm by end
of this century.
• Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable
situation is not likely to be achieved soon.
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Likely Impacts
The globally averaged surface temperature is projected
to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 ºC over the period 1990 to
2100. Scientists worry as they can not predict as to what
will happen if it goes above 2 ºC.
Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88 m between the years 1990 and 2100.
Globally averaged annual precipitation is projected to
increase during the 21st Century.
Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their
widespread retreat during the 21st Century. Dry season
flows of river will shrink in future.
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Likely Impacts…..
Dry seasons will have less rainfall. There will be an
increase in irrigation water demand unless offset by
diversification with dry-foot crops.
There will be erratic behavior of weather.
Forests will be affected as climate changes and plants will
need time to adjust.
Flora and fauna and their inter-relationship will be in
jeopardy. Many species will disappear, many will face
problems in surviving.
Drought tolerant, saline tolerant and submergence tolerant
varieties of crops will be required to cope.
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Likely Impacts ……
 Vulnerability to both flood and drought will increase.
 River flooding may increase in duration. Flash flooding will
be more frequent. Short duration rainfalls may create
drainage congestions specially in urban areas.
 A sea level rise of 0.5m by 2050 will cause low lying coastal
areas to go under water. Small island states may disappear.
It will also exacerbate drainage congestion in the coastal
plains.
 Frequency of tropical cyclones will increase. Storm surge
depths will increase.
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Who are Responsible?
• Developed countries for the historical emission (upto 1990)
– USA
36.1%
– 15 EC member States
24.2%
– Russia
17.4%
– Japan
8.5%
– Poland
3.0%.
• Share of big developing countries gradually increasing:
Middle East, 85.2%, Asia 78.1%, China (incl. Hong Kong )
44.5% respectively above 1990 level.
• China may over take USA by 2025 in GHG emission. India
will be one of the major emitter in another 10 years.
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IPCC-III scenario for Bangladesh
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LOCAL LEVEL CONSULTATIVE MEETINGS
Assessment of any indication of climate variations;
Issues and concerns resulting from climate variability;
Local knowledge and / or practices that may be adopted in
adaptation to climate change;
Level of current awareness on issues pertinent to water and
climatic variability;
Strategy for adaptation to climate change based on a consensus
of stakeholders;
Research requirements for adaptation;
Approaches on awareness raising to climate variability issues
and adaptations.
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Locations of meetings
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INDICATORS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
AS IDENTIFIED BY STAKEHOLDERS
Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain,
Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic
conditions, variation in tidal flow
Increase in frequency of flash flood,
Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and
cold winter,
increase in droughts and dry spells,
Storms and hailstorms,,
Increased surface temperature,
Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.
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LEVEL OF CURRENT AWARENESS
• The professionals and practitioners such as journalists,
physicians, senior NGO workers and teachers are aware
of climatic change related phenomena.
• Farms and non-farm agriculturists are not very much
aware of the science and background of the climate
change.
• However, they have experienced the effects and
vulnerabilities of climatic variability.
• Does people from developed countries have clear
understanding about climate change and climate
variation?
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People’s view:ADAPTATAION TO RAINFALL VARIABILIY
• Collection, preservation and supply of
improved local paddy seeds.
• Provide irrigation to protect crop against
drought.
• Improvement in drainage system.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO
TEMPERATURE VARIATION
• Blast resistant variety of potato should be available.
• There should be large-scale plantation and
afforestation;
• Integrated pest management (IPM) be widely
practiced.
• High temperature and drought tolerant indigenous
varieties of crops should be restored and
introduced.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO
INCREASED SALINITY
• To stop intrusion of the tidal water height and
width of embankment should be raised;
• Ensure natural flow river.
• There should be a good drainage system in the
area.
• Salinity tolerant varieties of plants be introduced.
• Traditional/indigenous saline tolerant varieties of
crop should be restored and introduced widely.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO CHANGES IN SEASONAL
CYCLE
• Information and technology about photo-neutral
varieties of crops should be available.
• Forecast about seasonal variation and also forecast
on storm, hail storms, flood etc. at the beginning of
the each crop season.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO FLOODS
• Disaster management training at local level
• Flood management infra-structures be constructed
and effectively maintained.
• People be encouraged to adopt with alternative
professions and they should be given skill
development training.
• Health related information should be provided and
improved health services.Mobile medical service
should be available. Special health services for
newborn and pregnant mothers should be ensured.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO STORM
SURGES AND CYCLONES
• Local voluntary organizations should be
strengthened
• Coastal afforestation program should be
strengthened. The Sundarbans should be preserved
and protected. Creation of reserved forest.
• More cyclone shelter should be constructed.
• Arrangement of proper and accurate weather
forecast. Special arrangement should be taken to
disseminate weather information.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO
INCREASE IN DROUGHT
• Support should be available for excavation
and re-excavation of canals and water
bodies.
• Afforestation and plant protection program
should be enhanced.
• Major irrigation program should be initiated.
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People’s view: ADAPTATAION TO SEA
LEVEL RISE
• All existing coastal polders be raised
and repaired; new polders to be
constructed in unprotected areas.
• Legal initiatives should be taken to
protect embankment.
• Sufficient measures to be taken to
improve internal drainage.
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People’s view: FUTURE RESEARCH
REQUIREMENTS
• Farmers require short period vegetable seeds.
• Innovation of hill friendly seeds that require no
ploughing.
• Innovation of drought resistant variety of wheat and
rice.
• Innovation of salinity and flood resistant variety of rice.
• Research needed to innovate photo-neutral variety of
vegetables and rice.
• Adaptation strategies should be based on local
knowledge and local participation.
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Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Temperat
ure
Sea Level Rise
Drought
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
Erosion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
River
Flood
Flash
Flood
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Crop Agriculture
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Fisheries
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Livestock
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Industries
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Biodiversity
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Health
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Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
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Infrastructure
Human Settlement
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Energy
Vulnerabilities: Livelihood
Trade
Regional distribution of
global output
Food security
Agriculture
Nutrition
Trend and sudden
shocks
Poor and non poor
Health
Climate change
impact
Infrastructure
Livelihood impact through
Employment, income,
consumption changes
Industry
Disasters
Climate Change and Developing
Countries
Adjustment mechanism
such as migration
Regional dimensions
coastal and inland
Gender differentiated
impacts
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Vulnerabilities
Climate and Related Elements
Most Impacted Sectors
Temperature rise and drought
• Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries),
• Water
• Energy
• Health
Sea Level Rise and Salinity
Intrusion
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (water logging, drinking water, urban)
• Human settlement
• Energy
• Health
Floods
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (urban, industry)
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Health
• Disaster
• Energy
Cyclone and Storm Surge
• Marine Fishing
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Life and property
Drainage congestion
• Water
• Agriculture (crop)
Climate Change and Developing Countries
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Global Responses
• The international political response to climate change began with
adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change(UNFCCC) in 1992.
• Calls for all signatories including developing countries:
– to develop their inventories of GHG emission;
– formulate and implement national and regional programs related to
mitigation and adaptation;
– Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion, including
transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction;
– Promote sinks of Green House Gases;
– Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change;
– Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and in
education training and awareness raising.
• These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications.
Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing
countries have submitted 1st Communication.
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Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC
• Stabilize the GHG concentrations at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climatic system- prevention is out of question now.
• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient
to allow
– To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change.
– To ensure that food production is not threatened, and
– To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
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Global Response
(cont...)
• Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP)
with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of
limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions.
– Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission,
individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first
commitment period of 2008 to 2012.
– Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their
commitments by 2005.
– Is it happening? --- No.
– Negotiation for post 2012 period has already been initiated.
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Priority issues in Adaptation
• Mainstreaming climate change in the National Policy &
Development Planning
• Capacity development in
– science, impacts and adaptation assessment
– prediction of climate risks
– Preparation and implementation of CDM projects that have
common issues with Mitigation.
– Agriculture sector to raise adaptive capacity for sustainable
livelihood
– international negotiation & climate diplomacy
• GO/NGO collaboration on collaborative research &
community based adaptation activities
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Some Current Negotiation Issues at global level
• A strong compliance regime is required. A deeper emission
cut is needed.
• Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto
situation.
• Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs
• Binding adaptation funds
• Technology transfer at an affordable price
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Where are our concerns
• North:
Sea level rise
Snow melting and dry skislopes
Floods
Hurricanes and typhoons
Health issues
Malaria
Heat waves
Reduction of green house gas
emission level
Compromise with life style
versus capacity to cope
with future disasters
Climate Change and Developing Countries
• South
Food Security
Disaster management
Urban drainage problems
Improvement in flood and
cyclone forecasting and
warning dissemination
Understanding impact on
ecosystem
Improvements in water
management including
resolution of transboundary waters.
Salinity increase and sea
level rise
Question of future survival
14 June, 2007
THANK YOU
Climate Change and Developing Countries
14 June, 2007