Transcript Climate change and agriculture: Will extreme weather leave us

Climate change and
agriculture: Will extreme
weather leave us hungry?
Brian Thomas
Warwick HRI
University of Warwick: Warwick HRI
a Department of Plant and Microbial Sciences
 Crop science applied to sustainable production,
particularly of horticultural crops
 Crop genetics, breeding, crop production, crop protection
 Strong Defra and industry linkages
Outline
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Climate change policy and Agriculture
Climate change research in Warwick HRI
Predicting extreme weather and crop responses
Examples and case studies
The spector of bioenergy
Conclusions and discussion
Policy
 UK target to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions through domestic and
international action by 26-32% by
2020 and 60% by 2050 (1990
baseline)
 Based on 550 ppm CO2 or plus
2oC
 “In the UK, other critical sectors of
the economy where we need to do
more to tackle greenhouse gas
emissions include agriculture and
waste management.”
Agriculture and Climate Change
Research
 Emissions from agriculture to air (7% UK greenhouse
gases).
 Mitigating nitrogen and carbon emissions to air.
 Energy in agriculture and food.
 Bioenergy.
 Renewable materials.
 Climate change impacts and adaptations.
Energy and water use
 Where does it go?
 Options for improving efficiency
 Energy
 Steve Adams
 WHRI & Farm Energy Centre
 Water
 Andrew Thompson
 WHRI & ADAS
Energy in agriculture
6000
Coal
LPG
Oils mobile
Oils static
Gas for CHP
Gas
Electricity
Energy use (GWh)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Protected
crops
Horticultural
field crops
Cereals
Potatoes
Other arable
crops
Poultry
Pigs
Dairy
Beef and
sheep
Overall: Petroleum products = 52%, electricity (primary) = 36%,
gas = 12%, coal = 0.4%, renewables (2005) = <0.1%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All livestock
idl
an
ds
An
gl
ia
n
Th
am
es
So
ut
he
rn
So
ut
h
W
es
t
Irrigation of
field crops
M
No
rth
No
rth
W
es
t
Glasshouse
and Nursery
crops
Ea
st
Water usage (Mm3 a-1 )
Water use in Environment Agency regions
Figure 2. Annual water use by agriculture according to EA regions in England (Mm3 year-1).
The proportion of the total contributed by the three largest sector categories of field irrigation, all
livestock and glasshouse and nursery crops, are shown. Taken from King et al, 2006
Irrigation of field crops
is the largest sector
for abstraction in
regions where water
courses are under
threat
Livestock farming
tends to occur where
water is plentiful
Impacts on the delivery of biodiversity through AgriEnvironment Schemes: Bill Finch-Savage
Countryside Stewardship at WHRI:
Hedge rows
Margins
Pollen and nectar producers
Arable reversion
Case study Sites:
Peak District:
Some species are vulnerable at the edge of their climate zones i.e. if
they require low temperature and/or occupy high mountain habitats
Coastal Sites:
Some habitats are threatened
directly, i.e coastal sites
5
4
2
1
6
3
Warwickshire:
Other areas are less immediately threatened, but ES management may
need to be altered to allow for climate change
Predicted Consequences of
Climate Change for the UK
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Temperatures rise by 2 - 3.5 oC
Wetter winters, drier summers
More heatwaves
Flooding and landslides more
frequent
 Sea level rises
Extreme Weather
 Extreme weather events:
 Exceeding the critical physiological
and/or physical thresholds for specified
crops, including heat waves, gales or frosts
during sensitive stages of crop development
that may cause crop failure or have a
significant impact on quality.
 Extreme weather impacts:
 Weather conditions affecting crop growth
or management and resulting in
substantial reduction in yield or quality.
This could be a consequence of a single
event, e.g. late spring frost, or prolonged
weather conditions, e.g. severe drought or
continues soil wetness.
Daily UKCIP02-based climate scenarios
analysis of extreme events and impacts
HadCM3
HadRM3
LARS-WG
Analysis of
extreme events
& impacts
Observations
low resolution, 300 km
high resolution, 1 km
Modelled temperature extremes
Data from Hadley forecasts then RRes stochastic
weather generator. HadCM3..HadRM3..LARS-WG..
1.5
7
(a)
6
(c)
Heat-waves
Frost-spells
5.0
1.2
5
4.0
4
3
0.9
Frequency
Frequency
Number of days with Tmax>30
6.0
(b)
0.6
3.0
2.0
2
0.3
1.0
1
0.0
0.0
0
2
Jan
Mar
May
BS
Jul
2050HI
Sep
4
6
Nov
2080HI
8
10
12
2
5
8
BS
2050HI
11
14
Length, day
Length, day
2080HI
BS
2050HI
2080HI
Fig. 2. Magnitudes and frequencies of extreme weather events: (a) Average number of days per month with maximum
o
temperature exceeding 30 C for the baseline (BS), 2050HI and 2080HI scenarios; Expected frequencies of (b) heato
waves with temperature exceeding 30 C and (c) frost-spells of various lengths in a single year for the baseline (BS),
2050HI and 2080HI scenarios at Rothamsted, UK.
Modelled daily preciptation
45
23
95 percentaile 3-days precipitation, mm
95 precentile of precipitation, mm
(a)
20
17
14
11
8
Jan
Mar
May
BS
Jul
Sep
2080HI
Nov
(b)
40
35
30
25
DJF
MAM
BS
JJA
SON
2080HI
Fig.3 (a) 95 percentile of daily precipitation and (b) 95 percentile of 3-days
precipitation for the baseline and 2080HI scenarios at Rothamsted, UK.
Sensitivities to extreme weather
Crop Type
Examples
Vulnerable Process
Annual seed crops
Cereals, oilseeds, Planting, establishment,
peas
flowering, seed formation
Annual vegetable
crops
Brassicas,
potatoes
Planting, establishment,
development, quality
Annual Protected crops Tomatoes
Quality, yield
Perennial fruit crops
Apples
Bud break, flower initiation,
flower development, fruit
growth
Perennial Biomass
Crop
Miscanthus
Establishment
Effects of high temperature
Extreme Weather
Physiological impact
Crops affected
High temperatures in
summer
Reproductive (flower)
development impaired
Cereals, oil seeds, peas,
tomatoes, apples
Flower bud formation–
effects seen the following
year
Apples
Crop development and yield
impaired
Vegetable brassicas,
tomatoes
Crop quality impaired
Oil seeds, cereals,
tomatoes, apples, vegetable
brassicas
Cold hardiness limited
Winter cereals, winter
oilseeds, apples
Early bud break and frost
susceptibility
Apples
High temperatures in winter
Flowering time in wheat
Avalon
Date of anthesis
Probability
Mercia
T 27
Pant
10
Date of anthesis
Probability
T 27
Pant
10
Baseline
2050HI
2080HI
11 June
26 May
15 May
0.121
0.154
0.242
19 June
6 June
27 May
0.114
0.322
0.403
Table 2. Average date of anthesis for cv. Avalon and cv. Mercia and
probability of high temperature after anthesis
T 27
Pant 10 for baseline,
2050HI and 2080HI climate scenarios (see details in the text).
Winter Cauliflower
Phases of development
Sowing
End of juvenility
Emergence
Germ
Juvenility
Harvest
Initiation
Induction
Curd growth
20
Early summer
16
Long-term average daily mean temperature (oC)
12
8
4
20
Summer/autumn
16
12
8
4
Winter
20
16
12
8
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Range of time for the start of induction
Range of time of curd initiation
Range of time of curd maturity
Weekly Cornish cauliflower
production 1996/1997
Nov
Jan
Mar
Rate
Curd induction function for Winter Cauliflower cv Renoir
Parameters for Cornwall
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
o
Temperature C
14
16
18
20
Predicted day of maturity
WINTER CAULIFLOWER running model for cv Renoir in Cornwall with 150 years of data synthesised for Camborne
1 May
1 May
1 Apr
1 Apr
1 Mar
1 Mar
1 Feb
1 Feb
1 Jan
1 Jan
Base
1 Jul
15
1 Aug
15
1 Sep
15
2020s
1 Jul
1 Oct
1 May
15
1 Aug
15
1 Sep
15
1 Oct
1 May
Plot 1
1 Apr
1 Apr
1 Mar
1 Mar
1 Feb
1 Feb
1 Jan
1 Jan
2050s
1 Jul
15
1 Aug
15
1 Sep
15
1 Oct
2080s
1 Jul
15
1 Aug
Model start at the end of the juvenile phase
15
1 Sep
15
1 Oct
Diamond-back moth – Plutella xylostella
 Migrant pest – cannot overwinter
successfully in UK at present –
but might if it gets warmer
 Development favoured by high
temperatures - optimum 30°and
still thriving at 40°
 Develops insecticide resistance
very readily
Diamond-back moth
 Migration depends on conditions at source
(so south-west Europe).
 Recent larger migrations correlated with
higher temperatures in SW Europe
 Wind direction and strength also a factor.
 Scenario – UK overwintering + increased
migration, more insecticides, insecticide
resistance.
Diamond-back moth
Lincs 1996
Moths/trap/day
220
200
180
Immigration
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2 May
14 Jun
Kirton
25 Jul
Holbeach
Donington
5 Sep
Butterwick
Friskney
17 Oct
1 February
Frequency of synthetic years
Diamondback Moth simulations for Krton Lincolnshire
base
2020s
2050s
2080s
150
100
50
0
1 June
Frequency of synthetic years
2
3
4
5
6
7
150
100
50
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
Number of generations before
either the first Autumnal frost
or 31 December
26 July 2006 – very dry
This was the week they stopped planting brassicas
17 August 2006 – same plot
Hot, dry summer of 2006
 Reduced yields in onion, Brussels sprout, carrot,
beans, cauliflower, peas
 Some peas for freezing left in field
 Fuel costs for pumping irrigation
 Running out of stored water
 Strawberry planting and harvest affected
 Potatoes - association between dry soils at
desiccation and bruising
 Salads – scheduling affected
 Large migration of diamond-back moth
European Heat Wave 2003
Warm, wet autumn
Delay in potato harvest
Delay in autumn field work
Increased disease in autumn cereals
Clubroot in oil seed rape
Warm winter - stored crops
 Potatoes
Increased risk of wet rots, early
sprouting, secondary growth in
stores.
Secondary growth also associated
with lack of irrigation.
 Cabbage
Thrips trapped inside are continuing
to reproduce
Warm winter – effects on insects
and plants
 Survival of Nasonovia
ribisnigri adults and
nymphs through January
 Very early captures of
Myzus persicae by
suction traps
 Lack of fruit formation in
blackcurrant
Wet winter
Land too wet too work – spring
sowing and planting delayed.
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World population increased from
1.6 to 6 billion last century
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It is projected to rise to 9 billion
by 2042
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Consumption per head will also
increase (change from grain/
vegetables to meat)
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Most good quality land is already
in use
Billions
Pressures on food supplies
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8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1960
1999
2042
US Census bureau
Defra strategy
 Low-Carbon Transport: there is strong potential to transform
our cars, lorries and buses away from relying on fossil fuels.
This can happen through a range of technologies: today biofuels
can be made from sugar beet , corn and other produce; but a
new generation of biofuels is under development which can use
a much wider range of materials including wood and waste, with
even better greenhouse gas savings.
Biofuels
 The Renewable transport fuel obligation (RTFO) was
announced in November 2005. It encourages fuel
companies to incorporate biofuel into road traffic fuel
sold through the forecourt at a rate of 5% by 2010/11
(2.5% in 2008/9 and 3.75% in 2009/10).
 Without imports the UK will have to use a substantial
proportion of its 'arable' land (estimated at between
20 and 33%)to meet the RTFO target from home
grown biofuels.
 All that would be needed to provide for 3.5% of our
national road fuel requirement.
Biofuels
 The US, Brazil, and the EU alone, will shortly between them, be
using more grain for biofuels than the entire global trade for
grain.
 It takes about 330kg of grain to make enough biofuel to fill a 23
gallon fuel tank, more than the average grain consumption per
capita over an entire year!
 ... global [grain] production has only met consumption once over
the last seven years. In 2006/7, the world will have produced
over 70 million tonnes less than it consumed, drawing down
stocks accordingly.
 Even without the forecast growth in the biofuel industry, the
globe as its agriculture stands at present, cannot meet demand.
 Either performance per hectare (yield) or total cropped area
have to increase on a major scale...
Andersons Management Consultants
Conclusions
 Climate change will lead to more periods of
high temperature and periods of heavy rain.
 Unseasonal or extreme weather will have an
increasing impact on crop production
 There are already examples of what to expect
 Modelling can help predict consequences and
guide adaptation.
 Extreme weather in the UK may not in itself
make us go hungry but its impact will
exacerbate other pressures on food supply
Acknowledgements
 Mikhail Semenov
 Aiming Qi
 Keith Jaggard
 Rothamsted Research
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Steve Adams
Rosemary Collier
Jane Fellows
Carol Jenner
Andrew Thompson
Bill Finch-Savage
 Warwick HRI