Transcript Trees in a Changing Environment Can we/they adapt fast enough?

Trees in a Changing Environment
Can we/they adapt fast enough?
John Mexal
Professor of Tree Necrology
Department of Plant & Environmental Sciences
New Mexico State University
What would the Botanical Butchers of
Broadway do? What would they do?
~Apr. 1997
Maybe something truly spectacular?
Botanical equivalent of “butt-crack” syndrome!
This is what I found!!
~Apr. 1997
Jan. 2006
Is it hot in here? Or what?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
I’m baaack!!!
• What human nature would not or could not
do…
• Mother Nature is doing it!
• Climate Change will claim more trees as
it gets hotter and drier over the next
several decades.
How to get there?
How to get there?
How to get there?
How to get there?
http://www.weatherstock.com/
How to get there?
CO2
T
ΔT
Ppt
How to get there?
↑CO2
↑T
↑ΔT
↓Ppt
↑ET
↑Ts
↑Tinjury
↓Ts
↓Ps
↓netPs
↑Rs
↓Ψsoil
↑EC
↑Disease
How to get there?
↑CO2
↑T
↑ΔT
↓Ppt
↑ET
↑Ts
↑Tinjury
↓Ts
↓Ps
↓netPs
↑Rs
↓Ψsoil
↑EC
↑Disease
One way or another!
Climate Change
• Is it getting hotter?
• Is it getting drier?
• What will happen to my trees.
Is it hot in here? Or what?
Climate Change: Forests vs Grasslands
Current
2050
Climate Change: Western Redcedar
Current
2050
Is it hot in here? Or what?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
Is it hot in here? Or what?
New Mexico
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
Change in vegetation with climate
change/ Aber et al. Biosci. 51(9):735:2001
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction ΔT = 2.8C
Change in vegetation with climate
change/ Aber et al. Biosci. 51(9):735:2001
Canadian Global Coupled Model ΔT = 5.2C
Climate Change in the SW US
17
Temperature (C)
16
Global Temperature
15
AZ - C
NM - C
14
13
AZ = 0.067x - 116.46
R2 = 0.94
NM = 0.044x - 75.39
R2 = 0.84
12
11
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
100
Top 26 warmest years
80
60
61% in last 30 yrs
40
20
0
2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s 1950s 1940s 1930s 1920s
Rank
Year
oF
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2006
1998
1934
1999
1921
1931
2007
1990
2001
1953
1954
2005
1987
55.01
54.94
54.91
54.53
54.49
54.34
54.3
54.24
54.23
54.18
54.13
54.08
54.08
Rank
Year
oF
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
1986
1939
1938
1981
1991
2003
2000
1946
1933
2002
2004
1994
1941
54.08
54.07
54.01
53.88
53.87
53.86
53.84
53.81
53.81
53.76
53.62
53.61
53.57
http://weather.about.com/od/climatechange/a/HottestYears_2.htm
Top 3 most unusual periods??
Mexal Records
• November 28, 1976
– Two days of -17oF preceded by mild month
– Lots of winter damage
• Summer 1980
– Broke most records for daily high T in summer
– Killed hundreds of people / millions of trees
– Did not make the Top 26 hottest
• Summer 1994
– Broke records set in 1980!!!
– Only 25th hottest year on record!!!
• Summer 2006
– El Paso, TX -- Rio Grande overflows its banks
There will be less water?
Science Findings Issue 97/ Oct ‘07
20
Central Rocky Mountains
Pacific Northwest
Southern Rocky Mountains
Sierra Nevada
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
1999
2015
2031
2047
Year
2063
2079
2095
Issues
•
•
•
•
It’s gonna get hotter!!
It’s gonna get drier!!
Greater temperature fluctuations
CO2 increase from 385 ppm in 2007 to
450 ppm by 2050
• What’s it mean to me???
Piñon is moving up the hill/ after Ryerson 2006
Stocking (% Piñon )
Piñon Mortality (%)
100
80
■,♦ = Northern
□, ◊ = Southwest (wh)
□, ◊ = Southcentral (gr)
60
40
20
0
6000
Elevation (ft)
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
Hardiness Zones are Changing/
Nat’l Arbor Day Foundation
http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm
http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm
Rule of Thumb
• A 1oF increase, increases ET by 1%
Water Use Will Increase
Albuq. Jour. Jan 17, 2008
• City has 1,843 irrigated acres
– Parks & golf courses
– Use 42”/ac/yr
• A 1oF increase will
increase water use by 1%
(0.42”)
Industrial
1%
Institutional
12%
Commercial
29%
Fire lines
1%
Residential
57%
– 11,405 gal/ac/yr
– 21,019,019 gal/yr!!
Water Use by Customer Class
Water Use Will Increase
• What happens if I don’t want to or can’t
increase my water budget by 1%?
– Decreased plant quality
– Decrease green area
– Accept more disease
– Accept more mortality
Quality of life
Water Use by Trees
/Craul p.216
Water Use (gal/day)
300
250
200
150
100
y = 9.1167e 0.0517x
R2 = 1
50
0
0
10
20
30
40
Canopy Diameter (ft)
50
60
70
Pecan Irrigation Requirements
Water (in/mo)
16
14
12
Pecan-nonstressed
Pecan-maintenance
PET (in)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Afghan Pine Irrigation Requirements
Water (in/mo)
16
Pine-nonstressed
14
Pine-maintenance
12
PET (in)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Las Cruces’ Tree Water Requirements
Water Use (in/yr)
80
Non-stressed
Maintenance
Survival
60
40
20
ul
be
rr
y
Sa
lt
C
ed
ar
A
fg
ha
n
Pi
ne
M
im
os
a
Ju
ni
pe
r
M
ite
x
V
Pe
ca
n
Lo
cu
st
sh
A
Pl
um
Lf
Pu
r.
ed
bu
d
R
A
lfa
lfa
0
After Sammis & Jerigan 1992
Turf and Irrigation Affects Tilia cordata growth
Stewart et al. HortSci 40(5):1529:2005
Leaf Area (m2)
Diameter (mm)
3
8
LA 2000
LA 2001
6
2
*
1
*
4
*
*
2
0
0
Mulch
Buffalo-NS
Buffalo-S
Kentucky- Kentucky-S
NS
Mulch
Turf Treatment
Buffalo-NS
Buffalo-S
Kentucky- Kentucky-S
NS
NS = not stressed
S = stressed
Rules of Thumb
• A 1oF increase, increases ET by 1%
• To reduce water use—reduce canopy coverage
– Under nonstressed conditions, a full canopy uses the same
amount of water, i.e. Kentucky bluegrass = pecan = mesquite,
etc.
– Management issues: growing season, level of stress tolerance
• Rain is a good thing—don’t waste it!
– Clean irrigation water (300 mg/L) adds about 1 ton of salt per
acre per year. Plants will use less than ½ of that.
Pest Outbreak Triangle/PNW,2000
Definition of ‘Disease’
“a condition of the plant body or of one
of its parts that impairs normal
functioning.”
Webster’s Dictionary
White Pine Blister Rust Spread
Sudden Oak Death
Oak sudden death = Phytophthora ramorum
•84 susceptible species in US
http://www.invasivespecies.gov
•Calif. black oak
•White fir
•Calif. red fir
•Coastal redwoods
•Coast live oak
•Douglas-fir
•Madrone
•Tanoak
•In 2005, spread to OR, WA, GA, LA, TN, SC
•In 2006, found in 22 states
Eriophyid mites on ash and smoke tree
Ramon Sias
Aleppo Pine Blight (Coniferal chiggers)
Symptoms
•Usually occur in the upper part of the tree in
December
•Damage occurs several months earlier in the
hot, dry summer.
•Needles turn grey then brown but continue to cling
to plump healthy branches until normal
seasonal needle drop in the summer.
•Twigs and branches may die.
•Water-soaked cankers can appear on branches,
which may split.
http://cals.arizona.edu/maricopa/garden/html/t-tips/cultural/aleppo.htm
Aleppo Pine Blight on Afgahn pine?
(Coniferal chiggers)
What are the critical parts of a tree?
Bark
Cambium
Xylem
What’s Killing Your Trees
Ash tree problems
‘68
‘03
‘00
‘94
‘93
‘90
1994-itis in Raywood Ash
‘68
‘03
‘00
‘94
‘93
‘90
Factors Affecting Acclimation-Tissue
• Intolerant
• Eucalyptus
camaldulensis
• Tolerant
• Pinus pinea
– Shoots = - 40oC
– Roots = -10oC
– Shoots = -10oC
– Roots = - 3oC
Mesquite Freeze Damage / April 2003
What’s Killing Your Trees
Low Temperature Injury
J. Mexal
SW Injury
Ash
Willow
Pecan
Pine
E. Shannon
Global Warming Is Killing this Palm!
SW Injury Protection
E. Shannon