Transcript Document

Research Methods Risk Analysis
Leonie A. Marks
University of Missouri
Primer Seminario de Investigación
SANREM CRSP: Adaptación al
Cambio en los Andes. La Paz, 24-28
Abril, 2006
Research Methods
• The survey will be designed through word associations (on likert
positive / negative scales).
• Perceived risks to the communities of 25 or more hazards (identified
through focus groups and national media coverage) including climate
change.
• Perceived risks to the respondent and family on these 25+ risks.
• Perception of climate change risk will be evaluated in the context of
other social/political/economic risks within communities and by
household.
• Additional baseline questions to elicit the degree of trust in
experts/government/scientists/NGOs/media versus community based
trust; knowledge; attitude towards risks; equity and fairness;
worldviews (cultural context of risk); personal household data (e.g.,
gender, age, children, assets).
Risk Ranking
• Respondents will rank the degree of risk associated with
the hazards presented to them including new/familiar
technologies, food safety risks, natural hazards (storms,
floods, frosts, droughts).
• Risks can be ranked on basis of (1) perceived risk to
public (national), community, and household (family), (2)
the acceptability of the current level of risk, (3) its position
on 15 scales (risk characteristics) that make up the two
factors (dread / unknown risk).
• Respondents could be asked to rank hazards in terms of
“almost no risk of death,” “slight risk of death,” “moderate
risk of death,” and “high risk of death.” The exact scale
should be culturally determined.
Risk Ranking Questions
Control over risk
“Risks can be controlled either by preventing mishaps or by
reducing the severity of mishaps after they occur. To what
extent can you [community/risk managers], by personal
skill or diligence, prevent mishaps or illnesses from
occurring in the case of drought?”
Much preventative control
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Little preventative control
Risk Ranking
Exposure
How many people are exposed to [effects of hazard,
e.g. drought / frost / flood / pesticides/ food
spoilage / price variability] in your [community /
nationally]?
Few
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Many