Transcript Meteorological Drought Assessment

New Trends in Water Resources
Planning and Management
Emphasis on Water Shortage Management
G. Tsakiris
National Technical University of Athens
Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
OUTLINE
A The Changing Context
B Water Framework Directive
C Decentralisation and Public Participation
D Drought as a Natural Hazard
E Water Shortage Management: The Proactive Approach
F Concluding Remarks
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
The Transformation

Population Increase

Population Mobility

Urbanisation
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Climate Change

Globalisation

Complexity

Uncertainty

Turbulence
Complexification
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Changing Approaches to
Planning and Management
1960s
Feasibility studies, Elitist planning, Extrapolative orientation
1970s
Environmental Impact Assessment, Indicators/Principles &
Standards, modeling/data
1980s
Cumulative Impact Assessment, foresight emphasis, “User pays,”
“Polluter pays” principle
1990s
Sustainability, Equity/Efficiency/Effort, Normative Planning
2000s
Globalization, Integrated/Holistic/Comprehensive
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Historic evolution of transparency and participation
Design team
Approximate Era
1
2
3
Pre-1945
Post-1950
1970s
4
5
6
7
Engineers
Engineers + Economists
Engineers + Economists + then add-on EIS to end of complete
design
Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists
Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists +
Affected People
Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists +
Affected People + NGOs
Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists +
Affected People + NGOs + Freely-given, fully-informed, prior
consent of affected people
1980s
1990s
1995
Early 200s?
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Treatment of stakeholders: trends from warning, through
consultation and participation to partnership
Pre-1950s
Warning: one way information flow: oustees were warned that they would be flooded or otherwise affected in a
few weeks or months time and had to get out of the way for the greater good of distant citizens.
1960s
Information: primitive consultation in selection of resettlement sites: outstees were informed that they would be
flooded out, and were asked where they would like to move to among a few sites selected by the proponent.
Compensation often inadequate
1970s
Consultation: Participation in resettlement site selection: oustees were consulted about their impeding move and
invited to assist in finding sites to which they would like to move.
1980s
Meaningful consultation: resettlement participation evolves into consultation: outstees are meaningfully consulted
in advance and can influence dam height, or its position on the river, outstees views on mitigation of settlement
are addressed.
1991
Mandatory consultation: World bank’s “EA Sourcebook” mandates meaningful consultation in all EAs. The EA is
unacceptable without such consultation (World Bank 1991).
1990s
Stakeholder consultation: resettlement consultation evolves into stakeholder consultation: stakeholders views are
sought on all impacts, not just involuntary resettlement.
1992
Participation: the World Bank’s EA Policy mandates participation. This means stakeholders are fully informed and
they participate in decisions affecting them (World Bank 1996a,b)
1996
“Participation Sourcebook” published (World Bank 1996c).
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Emerging Key Notions
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
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Integrated management
Water security
Transparency of governance
Policy reform
Transboundary interdependencies
River basin focus
True costing
Interdisciplinary approaches
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Millennium
Development Goals
“By 2015, cut
in half the
proportion of
people without
sustainable
access to safe
drinking water
and
sanitation.”
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
THE ESSENCE OF WFD/2000
• PLANNING AND INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT
• PRICING AND TRUE COST RECOVERY
• PARTICIPATION AND IMPROVED DECISION MAKING
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Key Characteristics WFD


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Prevent further deterioration, achieve “good status“ for
all waters
Promote sustainable water use
River basin approach
“Combined“ approach of emission limit values and
quality standards
Get prices right
Get citizens involved
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
WFD/2000 Framework
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Drought Phenomenon

More frequent and severe droughts

Higher vulnerability to water stress of society and environment
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Drought affects water deficient and sufficient countries
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Increased impacts in Europe

Drought the most difficult to determine hazard
“creeping natural hazard”
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Causes and types of water scarcity
Causes
Natural
Human Induced
and Natural
Permanent
Aridity
Desertification
Temporary
Drought
Water Shortage
Regime
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Variables representing water
availability
Drought type
Water availability variable
Meteorological
Precipitation, precipitation and
evapotranspiration
Hydrological
Streamflow, reservoir storage or flow in
aquifers
Agricultural
Soil moisture supply
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Drought as a natural hazard
Hazard
Vulnerability
Risk
Demand
Hydrological
Drought
Meteorological
Drought
Water
Shortage
Impacts on
- Municipalities
- Industries
- Tourism
Impacts on
Irrigated
agriculture
Agricultural
Drought
Impacts on
rainfed
agriculture
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Drought impacts
- Economic
- Environmental
- Social
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Climate Change
Three major findings for increased Climate Variability during
the 21st century for the Mediterranean region (IPCC, 2007):
1. Temperature increase in the order of 1.4o C up to 5.8o C
2. Precipitation decrease in the order of 20%
Change in annual precipitation and temperature
(ΔP mm)
(ΔT oC)
Athens



o

Thessaly
 +4 to +5 C



 (-80) to (-120)
Sparta


Cyclades

> +5 oC



Crete
Change in sea level rise (ΔH m)
+0.20 to +0.40
3. Increased frequency of extreme events, mainly floods,
droughts, heat waves and forest fires
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Climate Change


P
Change in the mean
Change in the dispersion
floods
droughts
time
P
time
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Key scientific and technical issues

Monitoring of water-related variables
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Selection of drought indices
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Comparability – drought prone areas
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Uni-dimensional analysis
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Water system vulnerability
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Exposure of the System (E)
Capacity of the System (S)
Social Factor (SF)
Severity of the event (Qmax)
Conditions and interrelated factors (I)
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Major Water Shortage
Management Options
Α. Severity Assessment –
Transparency
a.
Frequent information of water shortage severity
b.
Meetings and public discussions
c.
Task force establishment
d.
Analysis of demand and efficiency
e.
Preparation of options and responsibilities
f.
Targets in various uses
g.
Official request to central government and/or EU
h.
Planning of employees’ vacations
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Β. Demand reduction measures (1)
a. Public learning campaign appeals for voluntary conservation
from
i.
Farmers



Industrialists
Touristic agents
Public
ii. Bounces and incentives
b. Free distribution and/or installation of particular water
saving devices
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
Extensive installation of water meters (in all types of systems)
Low-flow showerheads
Shower flow restrictions
Toilet dams
Displacement devices
Pressure-reducing valves
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Β. Demand reduction measures (2)
c.
Restrictions on non essential uses:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.
d.
Street flushing
Pavement hosing
Car washing
Lawn sprinkling
Filling of swimming pools
Water cooled air conditioning without re-circulation
Public fountains
Park irrigation
Irrigation of golf courses
Irrigation of perennial and drought resistant crops
Prohibition of selected commercial and institutional
uses:
i.
ii.
iii.
Car washes
School showers
Irrigation of non important plants
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Β. Demand reduction measures (3)
e.
Drought emergency pricing:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
f.
Irrigation water charge per volume
Drought rate (special extra charge for irrigation)
Drought surcharge on total water bills
Summer use charge
Rationing programmes
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
Per area and crop allocation of irrigation water
Per capita allocation of residential use
Per household allocation of residential use
Prior use allocation of residential use
Percent reduction of commercial and institutional use
Percent reduction of industrial use
Complete closedown of industries and commercial
establishments with heavy use of water
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
C. System improvements
a.
Raw water sources
b.
Water treatment plant
c.
Distribution system:
d.
i.
Reduction of system pressure to minimum possible levels
ii.
Implementation of a leak detection and repair programme
iii.
Discontinuing hydrant and main flushing
Selection of individual household inspection for repairs
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
D. Emergency water supplies (1)
a.
b.
Inter-use transfers
i.
Purchase of water rights of farmers
ii.
Planned reallocation of irrigation to municipal use
iii.
Water trade - water banks
Inter-district transfers
i.
Emergency interconnections
ii.
Importation of water by trucks
iii.
Importation of water by railroad cars
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
D. Emergency water supplies (2)
c.
d.
Cross-purpose diversions
i.
Reduction of reservoir releases for hydropower production
ii.
Reduction of reservoir releases for flood control
iii.
Diversion of water from recreation water bodies
iv.
Relaxation of minimum streamflow requirements
Auxiliary emergency sources
i.
Utilization of untapped creeks, ponds and quarries
ii.
Utilization of dead reservoir storage
iii.
Construction of a temporary pipeline to an abundant
source of water (major river)
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Units of water
Prioritisation of water demand
10
9
8
7
6
Priority III
5
Priority II
4
Priority I
3
2
1
0
O N
D
J
F
M
A
M J J A S
months
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Institutional and governance issues

Dimensions




Technocratic dimension
Implementation process
Institutional context
Key critical issues for RBO establishment

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Consistent commitment of governance
Acceptance of shared responsibilities
Participation of stakeholders
Fully institutionalised initiatives
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning
Concluding remarks

Proactive management of water systems

Drought indices assessing drought severity

Uni-dimensional analysis of drought

Common truncation level for comparability between
regions

Water shortages caused by drought

Vulnerability analysis of each system

Risk the key determinant for prioritisation of demand

RBO the responsible agencies
National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning