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Dr Ian McGregor Cosmopolitan Civil Societies (CCS) Research Centre & Management Group – UTS Business School, Sydney [email protected] World Bank gets the problem 1985 - Statement by UNEP, WMO and ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) “As a result of the increasing greenhouse gases it is now believed that in the first half of the next century a rise of global mean temperature could occur which is greater than any in man’s history” More than 25 years later – no significant progress in addressing the problem – work on Bali Action Plan concluded in Doha at COP18 – with no significant international agreement – except to more negotiations now to conclude in 2015! Greenhouse Gases emissions continue to rise - particularly CO2 from burning fossils fuels 1988 Toronto Declaration (scientists, NGOs, political leaders) – needed a 20% reduction of global emissions by 2005! (actual +25%) Source: IPCC 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years by Randers (2012) It forecasts a world of plus 2°C in 2050, and the likelihood of run-away climate change in the second half of the 21st century. Shared Vision – Bali Action Plan (BAP) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention, in accordance with the provisions and principles of the Convention, in particular the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and taking into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors - Dec 2007 COP13 (Bali) – to be agreed by COP15 - 2009 COP18 - Shared Vision final outcome – 3 years overdue! Decides that Parties will urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions required to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to attain a global peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reaffirming that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries AOSIS Proposed Outcome – in line of what was needed Peaking year 2015; stabilization at 350 ppm; 2020 emissions reductions of 45% below 1990 for developed countries; 2050 emissions reduction of 95% below 1990 by developed countries; 2050 global aggregate reductions of 85% below 1990 What needed vs Outcome Peak year – 2015-2017 (IPCC) – “as soon as possible” – US blocked any stronger wording No ppm target No 2020 reduction target for developed countries (IPCC indicated 25-40% needed in 4th Assessment Report) No 2050 overall target or 2050 developed country target Why such weak Shared Vision after 5 years to develop it? USIC – US, India and China US forced to accept Bali Action Plan in the Bali moment (totally isolated) – however, even less supportive after Copenhagen COP15 shambles! India and China unwilling to agree global reduction targets until effort-sharing for that was agreed – so all pushed back to next phase of negotiations - Durban Platform – which US agreed to provided Bali process concluded at COP18 in Qatar A Global U-Turn is needed! Beyond Ecologically and Socially Sustainable Development (SD)to Planetary Stewardship (PS)? Unless recognise ecological planetary limits (already passed those for CO2 – 350ppm) – we condemn future generations to a dismal future Would never develop a Shared Vision by negotiating between 192 countries – even if most are in groupings What does a Global Climate Agreement need to achieve? “A climate protection framework designed to support an emergency climate stabilization program while, at the same time, preserving the right of all people to reach a dignified level of sustainable human development free of the privations of poverty” (Baer P, Athanasiou, T & Kartha, S 2007) Getting Effective International Agreement requires Recognising historic as well as current responsibility Developed countries need to fund over US ($100bn pa needed) low emissions development path for less developed countries, including China, India, Brasil and Indonesia Funding based on current per capita emissions and historic responsibility Mahatma Gandhi To end on a optimistic note “At every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different” Roberto Unger (quoted in Smolin 1997 - The life of the cosmos )