Transcript The Road to Bali - European Capacity Building Initiative

The Road to Bali:
An analysis of the Vienna
Climate Talks
Jürgen Lefevere
Policy Coordinator – International Climate Change
DG Environment
European Commission
Brussels
Vienna & its context
Convention (COP)
Convention Dialogue:
• Advancing development goals
• Addressing action on adaptation
• Realising full pot. of technology
• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
4th Workshop
Report to
COP-13
Deforestation (SBSTA)
IPCC AR4
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)
AWG (Art. 3.9)
4th Session
BALI
Technology (SBSTA)
Russian Proposal
Review of the Kyoto Protocol (Art.9)
May
August
December
The AWG (I)

Agenda:
 Analysis
of mitigation potentials & identification of
ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I
Parties

Result:
 Recognition
IPCC lowest stabilisation scenario
requires GHG emissions to peak in the next 10-15
yrs and reduced to well below half of 2000 levels by
2050
 Lowest IPCC scenario requires Annex I to reduce
emissions in a range of 25-40% below 1990 levels
by 2020
 To be continued…
The AWG (II)

Key issues:
 EU
advocated strong reference to global emission
reduction objectives and Annex I contributions
thereto
 Japan, Canada, Russia not ready to be drawn into
concrete discussion on mitigation potentials and
reduction ranges
 AOSIS concerned with impacts lowest IPCC ranges
 Saudi Arabia insisted on analysis “spillover effects”
 India insisted on domestic reductions & life-style
changes Annex I: relation between reduction
ranges and flexible mechanisms?
The Convention Dialogue (I)

Agenda:
 Building
blocks of a post-2012 agreement
 “analysis of existing and potential investment and
financial flows relevant to the development of an
effective and appropriate international response to
climate change”

Result:
Report co-facilitators to COP-13 in Bali
 Finance ministers meeting 11 December?

The Convention Dialogue (II)

Key issues:
 UNFCCC
report:
 Finance and investment challenge is “doable”
 Redirect finance flows, need for new finance
 Important role carbon market, but depends on ambition post2012 agreement
 Finance ministers 11 Dec?

The Bali Roadmap?
 No negotiations: China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea
 New dialogue/agenda item/new ad-hoc group/merge with AWG
 “unintended consequences”
The Global Carbon Market:
Transfer of Emission credits (1)
The Global Carbon Market:
Transfer of Emission credits (2)
UNFCCC:
Credit transfers (Billion EUR/year)
180
Mitigation:
160
200-210 bUS$/yr
140
(NAI 46%)
120
Carbon market:
100
5-100 bUS$/yr
80
€ 33 billion/yr
energy access poor
€ 25 billion/yr
decarbonise DC
energy investments
60
40
20
0
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
volume
2
3
8
10
12
2030
price
10
21
37
50
64
total/yr
4
12.6
59.2
100
153.6
Co-facilitators’ “building blocks”
Global Action
Sustainable development
Investment and Finance
Mitigation
Adaptation
The Bali “roadmap”
Convention (COP)
Convention Dialogue:
• Advancing development goals
• Addressing action on adaptation
• Realising full pot. of technology
• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
Bali Roadmap
Report to
4th Workshop
COP-13
Deforestation (SBSTA)
IPCC AR4
Technology Transfer (SBSTA)
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
?
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)
AWG (Art. 3.9)
• Ambition/objective
• “principles”
• Platform & process
• Timeline
• Recognition of action
• Deforestation
• Technology
• Adaptation
• Finance & investment
• Russian Proposal?
4th Session
• Commitments AI KP
Russian Proposal
• Russian Proposal?
Review of the Kyoto Protocol
• Incentives for action
• Bunker fuels
•?
May
August
December
The Road to Bali



9-11 September: Gleneagles Dialogue (Berlin, Germany)
24 September: High Level Meeting on Climate Change, UN
Secretary General Initiative (New York)
27-28 September: US Major Economies Initiative (Washington
DC)

24-25 October: Informal ministerial meeting (Bogor, Indonesia)
31 October: Third UNFCCC workshop on Finance and
Investment to address climate change

12-16 November: IPCC adoption of Synthesis Report (Valencia,
Spain)

10 December: Trade Ministers Meeting (Bali)
11 December: Finance Ministers Meeting (Bali)
3-14 December: UN Climate Negotiations (Bali)


