Transcript Document
FOUR MAJOR RESEARCH CHALLENGES FOR THE SECOND DECADE OF THE USGCRP 1. Quantify the contributions from major geopolitical source regions to the global budgets of environmentally important gases and aerosols (cross-cuts atmospheric composition questions 1, 2, 3, 5) 2. Quantify the role of intercontinental transport of pollution on regional environmental degradation (question 3) 3. Understand the effects of air pollutants (ozone, aerosols) on climate, the related feedbacks, and the effects of climate change on air quality (cross-cuts questions 1, 2, 3, 5) 4. Measure, understand, and predict long-term trends in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere (cross-cuts all questions) Two general points: • Satellite observations to revolutionize research over next decade • Climate sensitivity issues critical but don’t neglect broader environmental issues (overlaps, feedbacks e co-benefits, community inclusion) Quantifying the contributions from major geopolitical source regions to the global budgets of environmentally important gases and aerosols Need inverse models constrained by satellite and aircraft observations, and by bottom-up understanding of processes SATELLITES continuous monitoring INFLOW AIRCRAFT MISSIONS covariances, chemistry, model errors “Top-down” constraints 3-D MODELS inversion OUTFLOW “Bottom-up” source/sink inventories Gap in draft document: recognize essential role to be played by geostationary satellites, inverse methods, chemical data assimilation Quantifying the role of intercontinental transport of pollution in regional environmental degradation Need global mapping (satellites), long-term observations, integrated approach (ozone, aerosols, Hg, POPs…), new generation of models to resolve regionalglobal and ocean-atmosphere coupling HEMISPHERIC/GLOBAL POLLUTION BACKGROUND (Ozone, metals, POPs) Free troposphere PBL “Direct” intercontinental transport (aerosols) Continent 1 Continent 2 Oceanic transport (metals, POPs) Gap in draft document: broaden to metals and POPs (multimedia models) Understanding the effects of air pollutants (ozone, aerosols) on climate, the related feedbacks, and the effects of climate change on air quality Need better characterization of aerosol forcing, new generation of GCMs including aerosols/chemistry/biosphere and global/regional coupling Climatic effects on air pollution meteorology, emissions, chemistry Could be large (remember summer of ’88! Radiative forcing Precursor emissions Aerosols Tropospheric ozone, Gap in draft document: need observational diagnostics of radiaitive and climatic response to aerosols and ozone, climate forecasts relevant to air pollution meteorology Measuring, understanding, and predicting long-term trends in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere Need better global OH proxies, better understanding of HOx/NOx/O3 chemistry (partial derivatives), better understanding of related emissions O2 + hn Tropopause (8-18 km) Stratospheric ozone STE (poorly understood) ? TROPOSPHERE Complex non-linear chemistry ? Nitrogen oxides? (NO ) STRATOSPHERE Lightning x CO, Hydrocarbons hn Ozone (O3) hn, H2O Hydroxyl (OH) the main atmospheric oxidant Gap in draft document: oxidizing power of atmosphere is nowhere specifically addressed