Transcript Document

Planning for change
Professor John Handley
School of Environment and Development
University of Manchester
Forests & Climate Change Conference, BAFTA,
London, November 21st 2007
Change in mean annual temperature
by the end of this century
Based on
IPCC SRES
Scenario A2
(EC Green Paper,
2007)
Change in mean annual precipitation
by the end of this century
Based on
IPCC SRES
Scenario A2
(EC Green
Paper, 2007)
Confidence in UK climate change
• Average temperature
increases
• High temperature
extremes increases in
frequency
• Low temperature
extremes decrease in
frequency
• Sea-surface
temperature warms
• Thermal growing
season lengthens
Source: UKCIP02
• Winter precipitation
increases
• Winter precipitation
intensity increases
• Snowfall decreases
• Summer soil moisture
decreases
• Sea-level rises
• Extremes of sea-level
become more frequent
Twin responses to global climate change
“There are two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one
by removing its causes, the other by controlling its effects.” James
Madison et al, The Federalist Papers
1. Mitigation of climate change
slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions
2. Adaptation to climate change
respond to the predicted impacts of unavoidable
climate change
UK Climate
Impacts
Programme
Because of the inertia in the climate system, impacts through to
the latter 2040s will be determined by emissions already made in
the latter part of the 20th Century. Therefore, impacts through to
the 2040s are unavoidable and need to be addressed (now)
Pathways to climate change adaptation
Building Adaptive Capacity
Review
existing plans
& policies
Control
development in
high risk areas
Climate
conscious urban
regeneration
Climate
conscious new
development
Screening Risks at the Conurbation Scale
Mitigate climate
change drivers
Modify urban form
and function
Hazard
Urban System
Reduce
Exposure
Exposure
Reduce
Risk
Risk
Influence general
behaviour
Elements at Risk
Vulnerability
Reduce
Vulnerability
England’s Northwest
Climate Change Impacts in the
Built Environment
• The built environment is
distinctive
– High building mass
increases thermal capacity
– Surface sealing increases
rainfall run-off
• Climate change
strengthens the urban
heat island and
accelerates run-off
Priority themes for risk assessment
Exposure Unit
Hazard
Elements at Risk
Built
environment
Flooding,
geohazards (e.g.
landslides, shrinkswell clays)
Built environment, key
infrastructure and
services
Urban
greenspace
Drought (available
water content),
runoff, temperature
Key greenspace
infrastructure including
parks, gardens and trees
Human comfort Temperature (day
and night maxima),
precipitation
Receptive environments
e.g. for shoppers and
commuters
Human health
Population density and
characteristics
Temperature (day
and night maxima)
Temperature change in the Mersey Belt
Surface temperature
Trees in the public realm
Max surface temp (deg C)
Effect of adding/subtracting greenspace
on surface temperature
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970s
2020s
Low
2020s
High
2050s
Low
2050s
High
2080s
Low
2080s
High
Time period and emissions scenario
town centre
town centre -10% green
town centre +10% green
Trees and air conditioning,
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Percentage
Tree cover in the urban area of Greater
Manchester
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
UMT
Surface Cover and Residential Density
Red Rose Forest: Green Streets
Green Infrastructure
“Green Infrastructure is
an interconnected
network of green space
that conserves natural
ecosystem values and
functions and provides
associated benefits to
human populations”
Benedict & McMahon, 2002
Climate Adaptation via the Green
Infrastructure
Corridor
Patch
Matrix
•••
••
•
Infiltration
capacity
•
••
•••
Evaporative
cooling
•
•••
••
Shading
•
••
•••
Flood
storage
Corridor
Patch
Matrix
Functional importance of urban
greenspace needs to be
reflected in RSS and LDFs
Green Infrastructure in Greater Manchester
The case for trees around towns
‘The suitable pattern therefore seems
inevitable – we should surround our towns
and cities with trees. The Forestry
Commission is proving to be an excellent
amenity body in its handling both of scenery
and recreation; it also has powers to buy land
to improve the landscape, and nowhere
would its operations mean more
improvement than here.’
‘New Lives, New Landscapes’, Nan Fairbrother, 1970
The National Community Forest
Programme
What makes a Community
Forest?
• Plan – long term
• Vision – sets the direction
• Partnership – responsive and focused,
support, steering
• Team – enabling, coordinating,
developing projects with communities
Climate change may bring
opportunities
“there are potential benefits
resulting from climate change in
some economic sectors,
especially tourism and
recreation, but we can be less
certain about the scale of such
benefits and they are unlikely to
be distributed evenly across the
sector”
Changes in Tourism Climatic Index for
Blackpool and Balearics
Source:
Amelung &
Viner, 2006
Climate Change and the Visitor Economy
Case Study Landscapes:
•
•
•
•
Integrity of the Sefton Dune System
Moorland wildfires in the Peak District
Footpath erosion in the Lake District
Public Spaces in Manchester city centre
CCVE Research Framework
Visitor
Economy
Climate
Change
Pressures
Responses
State of the
landscape
Impacts on the
landscape and its
utilisation
Invest to sustain visitor capacity in the
‘man-made wild’
Regional importance of high
capacity landscapes
e.g. Delamere and
Grizedale Forests
Heavier winter rainfall in the Lake District
Woodland cover increases visitor
capacity
Delamere Forest – a heavy duty
landscape close to 4 million people
Conclusion
“England’s trees, woods and forests have a
major role to play in helping us to cope with
life in a changing climate.
The 10-15 year timescale of this strategy is
set within a longer term vision of what we
want England’s trees, woods and forests to
look like and to deliver in the second half of
this century.”
(A Strategy for England’s Trees, Woods and Forests,
DEFRA, 2007).
Acknowledgements
• To Gina Cavan for assistance with this
presentation
• To EPSRC, DEFRA and NWDA for
supporting the underpinning research