Transcript Climate change and catchment management

Dr John Tibby
Senior Lecturer
© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark
Newman (University of Michigan).
 Questions
for you…
 Trends in global climate and carbon
emissions
 Which countries emit the most?
 What is the risk?
 What are the solutions?
• Global
• Australia
 When
was the last Ice Age?
 When did it finish?
 How much did The Earth warm?
3300 m
2100 m
1250 m
900 m
Image source: www.strangesounds.org
 Why?
 Perhaps
does not
understand “tragedy
of the commons”,
“the precautionary
principle” and
“ecological
footprints”
Image source: www.sbs.com.au
 Hardin, G. 1968. A
biologist wrote “The
Tragedy of the Commons” in journal the
Science.
 Argued that in absence of private
property rights, environment suffers
 Occurs: atmosphere and aquatic (esp.
marine) environments
 1.8-4.0°C
end of century (best
estimate)
 Range: 1.1-6.4°C
 2°C: “dangerous”
source: IPCC (2007)
 Mandated
role of United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change and IPCC
 Definitions vary according to
different organisations
 How can it be avoided?
 In
•
•
•
the industrial period…
First 50 ppm increase: took > 200 years
Second 50 ppm increase: took 30 years
(~1970 to 2000)
2000-2010: 20 ppm increase
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Conclusion:
•Solutions
need to be
multi-faceted
•No “silver
bullet”
GHG emissions by sector, 2004 source: IPCC WG3
 Absolute
amount
 per person
 Historical or accumulated
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html
Image source:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sysfiles/Guardian/documents/2011/02/10/CarbonWeb.pdf
Qatar: 36.9 tonnes
United States: 17.3 tonnes
Australia: 17.0 tonnes
Russia: 11.6 tonnes
Germany: 9.3 tonnes
UK: 7.8 tonnes
China: 5.4 tonnes
World average: 4.5 tonnes
India: 1.4 tonnes
Africa average: 0.9 tonnes
Ethiopia: 0.1 tonnes
From: Energy Information Association (US)
www.eia.gov/
An integrated measure obtained by removing exports but including
imports
Belgium 21.9
United States of America 20.2
Ireland 16.2
Finland 15.1
Australia 13.8
United Kingdom 11.5
China 4.3
Brazil 2.1
India 1.3
Nigeria 0.5
Malawi 0.2
http://images.china.cn/
Data source:
www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/04/20/1006388108.DCSupplemental/sapp.pdf
Nation
United States
Million tonnes CO2
314772
Russia
89688
China
89243
Germany
73626
United Kingdom
55164
Japan
42696
France
28515
India
25054
Canada
23669
Ukraine
22841
Poland
21263
Italy
17642
South Africa
13242
Australia
From: http://www.wri.org
11929
“The challenge – an absolute reduction of
global GHG emissions – is daunting. It
presupposes a reduction of energy and
carbon intensities at a faster rate than
income and population growth taken
together (p. 109)”
Source: IPPC wg3
 What
is current concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere?



Models vary
Replicated science difficult
with a planet
Even the simplest of measures,
“climate sensitivity” (i.e.
amount of global warming
when C02 doubled) is subject
of debate
Source: IPPC wg3
Final temp
CO2-e best estimate
(ppm)
CO2-e 80%
confidence
(ppm)
2.O°C
441
378
3.O°C
556
441
4.O°C
701
515
Source: IPPC wg3
Conclusion:
Precautionary principle
demands very strong
immediate reductions
CO2-e=Carbon dioxide equivalent (includes other gases)
Source: IPPC wg3
 Summary
of what
action needed to
achieve 2 or 3ºC
warming
 Realise there is
considerable
variation in the
models (see table)
 450
ppm CO2-e
• requires “dramatic and immediate changes in
global emissions”
• discussed at Bali, basis for 25-40% reduction
suggestion
• Needs:
 peak CO2: 2010
 falling to 2000 levels by 2020
 half 2000 levels by 2050
 1/4 2000 levels by 2100
 Stronger
than Kyoto Protocol
Based on Garnaut, 2008
 550
ppm CO2-e
 “much higher risks of
dangerous climate change”
 peak 2030 (at absolute latest)
 2000 levels by 2050 (at
absolute latest)
 Even this only happens with
“only urgent, large, and
effective global policy change”
Based on Garnaut, 2008
 Applies
precautionary principle
• absence of scientific certainty not sufficient to
justify a lack of action
 Implement
sustainable development
principles
 165 signatories (Dec 2006). US signed
but not ratified
 “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
 It requires 38 participating developed countries to
cut their emissions of gases by an average of 5.2%
below their 1990 levels by 2012.
 Developing countries were excluded.
○ The U.S. did not sign, but California and Maine are
participating.
○ U.S. did not sign because developing countries such as
China, India and Brazil were excluded.
World Development
Reactive
Regionalization
Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic
Proactive
Environmental Management
Globalization
 Link
between
economic output,
development and
energy use
 Sub-Saharan Africa,
electrification to
only 23% of
population
 Sth Asia: 41%
Energy growth demand 1971-2003
~
550 million tonnes/year
 Apparently
significant opportunities for a
large, hot, flat sparsely populated nation
 Include:
• solar
 2-3 decades away?
• geothermal
 limited amount of power
• land-use change
• also of course nuclear and carbon capture
1 dot=1000 people,
www.soe.gov.au (2001)
 Stationary
energy: increased 40%
 Transport: increased 27%
 Industry: increased 18%
 Land-use: decreased 54% (was 24% of
emissions in 1990)
 Total emissions growth: 4%
 At
2020 reduce emissions by 5% of 2000
• 23% of expected growth
• 80% by 2050
 Included: Carbon
Price...
 Approx. 500 business
 Price of $23 tonne on carbon
• 2.5%/year increase until 2015
 + “carbon
farming”
 Garnaut
Review (2008, final report) argued
that revegetation of (semi) arid lands might
allow uptake of 250 million tonnes carbon
• half Australia’s emissions
• $2.5 Billion/year to rural Australia @ $20/tonne
carbon
http://www.daff.gov.au/
www.hreoc.gov.au
 The
ecological footprint of Australia (and
other developed nations) has been
substantial and continues to grow
 This knowledge underpins global
solutions that emphasise shared
responsibility
 Adaptation to climate change is going to
be a large part of our lives
Garnaut review: www.garnautreview.org.au
Pacala, S. and Socolow, R. 2004. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate
Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Science 305:
968-972.
Parry M. 2009. Closing the loop between mitigation, impacts and adaptation.
Climatic Change 96: 23-27.
Mackey, B.G., Keith, H., Berry, S.L. and Lindenmayer, D. B. 2008. Green carbon
:the role of natural forests in carbon storage. Part 1, A green carbon account
of Australia’s south-eastern Eucalypt forest, and policy implications.
Canberra, ANU E Press.
Trenberth K. and Dai A. (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption
on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering Geophysical
Research Letters. L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524
Witze, A. 2009. Geoengineering schemes under scrutiny. Nature news,
see:
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090807/full/news.2009.810.html