Transcript Global Warming: Part 2

What lies ahead?
A taste of what is to come?
The Chicago heat wave of 1995
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Temperatures of 38-41°C on five consecutive days
Chicago is in the centre of the US corn belt
The intense heat shrank the US corn harvest that year
by 15%
= 3 billion dollars
What lies ahead?
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A 2.1° rise will expose between 2.3 and 3 billion people to the risk of
water shortages.
Soils will become a net source of carbon rather than a net sink.
The proportion of land experiencing extreme drought is predicted to
rise from 3 per cent today to 30 per cent: with consequent crop
reductions
The thermohaline circulation (THC) could weaken or shut down.
The Global Ocean Circulation System
The day after tomorrow … ?
Doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain.
The pace of consumption, waste and environmental change has so
stretched the planet’s capacity that our contemporary lifestyle,
unsustainable as it is, can only precipitate catastrophes, such as
those which even now periodically occur in different parts of the world.
Laudato si, 161
What lies ahead?
A rise in the middle of the expected range
commits 15 to 37 per cent of the world’s species to
extinction by 2050.
 At 1.4° coral reefs in the Indian Ocean will
become extinct.
 With 2° 97 per cent of the world’s coral reefs
will bleach.
 The oceans will acidify (from 8.2 to 7.7 by
century’s end): too acid for sea creatures –
including plankton – to make shells.
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What lies ahead?
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a small degree of warming could
cause the loss of much of the Amazon rain
forest, leading to the disappearance of
rainfall.
 The Amazon has the potential to release
730 tonnes of carbon – about 10 per cent
of man-made emissions – every year for 75
years (this is an example of positive
feedback: climate change accelerating
itself).
What lies ahead?
Rising sea levels will allow salt
water to pollute the drinking water of
some of the world’s largest coastal
cities: Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta,
Bangkok, Kolkata, Mumbai, Karachi,
Lagos, Buenos Aires and Lima.
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QuickTime™ and a
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Humanity is called on to recognize the
need for changes in lifestyle , production
and consumption, i n order to combat
this war ming or at least the human
causes which produce or aggrav ate it
( Laudato si, 23).
The alliance between the ec onomy and
technology ends up sidelining anything
unrelated to its immediate intere sts.
Consequently the mo st one can expect is
superficial rhet oric, sporadic acts of
philanthro py and perfunctory expressions of
concern for th e environment, wh ereas any
genuine attempt by groups within society to
intro duce change is viewed as a nuisance based
on romantic illusions or an obstacle to be
circumvented. ( Laudato si, 54).
The scale of the challenge: what we need to do
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By 2030 the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb carbon dioxide
will have reduced from the current figure of 4 billion tonnes a year to
2.7 billion.
To maintain equilibrium in other words, that is the maximum we can
afford to emit (to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees).
By 2030 the earth’s population is expected to be in the region of 8.2
billion.
Dividing the total carbon sink by the number of people we find that to
achieve stabilisation the weight of carbon emissions (the carbon
footprint) per person should be 0.33 tonnes per year.
How are we doing?
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The carbon footprint of the average western European is
about 12 tonnes.
It’s nearly twice that for Americans and Australians.
The global average is about 4 tonnes per year.
In Africa and India it is 1 tonne.
The usual target for what it needs to be is 3 tonnes …
… which is still ten times too much.
My carbon footprint
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figure will ultimately have to drop
to below 1 tonne if we are to reach
the level where global emissions are
low enough to match nature’s ability
to absorb them (which is maybe 1020% of today’s emissions).
We are not going to change
voluntarily
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Only 4% of people have made substantial
changes to the way they live. Everyone
else is waiting for everyone else to act.
Global warming cannot be reined in unless
we persuade the government to force us
to change the way we live.
Although developed countries are
responsible for only half of today’s
emissions, they are responsible for 80% of
what is already there.
What next?
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Wake up. Become aware.
Check the websites and read more.
Know the facts well enough to argue.
Support measures to combat climate
change.
Start with yourself.
Why nuclear energy is not a
long-term solution
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The safety issue (remember Chernobyl)
The problem of radioactive waste
The dangers of terrorism
Often a cloak for weapons development
Costs cloaked by subsidies
Worldwide supplies of cheap uranium will only last a few
decades
Further study
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Heat. How to stop the planet burning, by George Monbiot. Penguin Books, 2007.
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How to live a low-carbon life: the individual’s guide to stopping climate change, by Chris Goodall.
Earthscan, 2007.
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The Weather Makers. The History and Future Impact of Climate Change, by Tim Flannery. Penguin, Allen
Lane, 2006.
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The Hot Topic. How to tackle global warming and still keep the lights on, by Gabrielle Walker and Sir David
King. Bloomsbury, 2007.
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Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas. Harper Perennial, 2008.
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Laudato Si, by Pope Francis (2015), especially Chapter 1: What is happening to our common home?
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This Changes Everything, by Naomi Klein. Penguin Books, 2015.
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National Geographic September 2004. Global Warning: Bulletins from a Warmer World.
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Wikipedia: Kyoto Protocol
http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/envsci/index.html
www.lowcarbonlife.net
http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/envsci/index.html
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