Transcript Mexican hat dance or tequila sunrise? Cancun and the

The Durban deal: views from inside
the negotiations.
Adrian Macey, VUW, February 2012
Durban resources
• http://unfccc.int/2860.php - Durban texts
• http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop17 - ENB report
Durban political core
Kyoto
Linked issues
2020
$
Durban real core
Accounting
rules
Linked issues
Mitigation
by
all major
emitters
Global
regime
Kyoto Protocol
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Second commitment period secured
Most rules decided
Market mechanisms preserved from attacks
Gives some certainty for 2013-2020
To be decided in 2012:
▫ Commitment period 5 or 8 years
▫ Qelros – pledges into carbon budgets
▫ Carry-over (“hot air”)
• Ambition in abeyance
LCA (Convention track)
• Mitigation to 2020 confirmed
• Elements of post-2020 architecture advanced
• Ambition and global goals given political
recognition
• Review in 2013-15
New negotiating mandate
• “Bali Rev 1” to reflect Copenhagen, Cancún +
Durban gains
• Form is new: protocol, legal instrument or “agreed
outcome with legal force” (cf Bali’s “agreed
outcome”)
• Equal legal treatment is new
• Content is not: mitigation, adaptation, finance,
technology, capacity building, transparency
• Strong acknowledgement of ambition gap – linked
to 2013-15 review
• Will build on LCA (Convention negotiating track)
work
Why did Durban exceed expectations?
• “Without doubt, the Durban Climate Change
Conference was the most encompassing and
furthest reaching conference in the history
of the climate change negotiations”
• Political ‘must haves’ recognised early
• Expectations on ambition were realistic- and low
• Key players stuck to message
• BASIC without a common agenda
• The “African COP”
• South African presidency style
• UNFCCC leadership style
NZ’s Durban deeds
• Brokering of core mitigation outcomes on
Convention track
• Kyoto Protocol chair
• Ideas influential
▫ template for commitments and actions
▫ markets
• Agriculture work programme agreed
• Awarded record number of ‘fossils’
New Zealand issues
• What’s our number?
• Kyoto – do we stay or do we go?
• What to put in the agriculture work
programme?
• Methane
• Markets
• Contribution to finance
• Australia
• ETS
• Post-2020 regime preferences
New Zealand post 2012 target
• New Zealand is prepared to take on a responsibility target for
greenhouse gas emissions reductions of between 10 per cent
and 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, if there is a
comprehensive global agreement. This means:
• the global agreement sets the world on a pathway to limit
temperature rise to not more than 2° C;
• developed countries make comparable efforts to those of
New Zealand;
• advanced and major emitting developing countries take
action fully commensurate with their respective capabilities;
• there is an effective set of rules for land use, land-use change
and forestry (LULUCF); and
• there is full recourse to a broad and efficient international
carbon market.
New Zealand post 2012 commitment
• l New Zealand is prepared to consider submitting information on
its QELRO, pursuant to decision 1/CMP.7, paragraph 5, following
the necessary domestic processes and taking into account decision
1/CP.17, decisions on mitigation (-/CP.17) and the
.indaba./mandate outcome decision (-/CP.17) and decisions /CMP.7 (Land use, land-use change and forestry), -/CMP.7
(Emissions trading and the project-based mechanisms, -/CMP.7
(Greenhouse gases, sectors and source categories, common metrics
to calculate the carbon dioxide equivalence of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks, and other
methodological issues and -/CMP.7 (Consideration of information
on potential environmental, economic and social consequences,
including spillover effects, of tools, policies, measures and
methodologies available to Annex I Parties) .
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Process-heavy in 2012...
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AWGKP – finishing off
AWGLCA – finishing off
“AWGDPEA”(?) – the new negotiation
Finance Standing Committee
Green Climate Fund
Technology Executive Committee
Adaptation committee
Forum on response measures
As well as existing bodies: SBSTA,SBI,COP,CMP
etc......
Issues for the world
• Momentum 2013-2020
▫ negotiations
▫ transformation to low carbon economic growth
• 2013-15 review
• Shape of 2020 agreement
Opening ceremony
Handover to South African presidency
President Zuma
UN Secretary General
NZ delegation leaders (day one)
Meeting rooms...
COP 17 Climate trade fair
Side events...
Wall of shame
Locked out
Kyoto Protocol team
Kyoto Protocol options
Indaba
Final hours
Final hours
The final “huddle”