Transcript Climate Change - Crescent School

Climate Change
October 29, 2007
By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)
The Greenhouse Effect
CO2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher
Than Pre-industrialized Levels
380
372ppm
in 2002
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
360
340
*
320
300
280
260
*
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*
*
* ** ** * * * * ** * **
*
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** * *
**
900
*
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**
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least
the past 400,000 years
The Carbon Cycle
What is
a
Carbon
Sink?
Green House Gases (GHGs)
 Carbon Dioxide
 Methane
 Nitrous oxide
 Sulphur hexafluoride
 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)
 Perflurocarbons
Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO2
Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and
cow burps to transportation and industry
Average Global Temperature Has Increased by
Approximately 0.60 Since the Late 19th Century
Temperature Patterns in Canada will
Change Substantially by 2050
What are
GCM’s?
Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are
Expected to Become More Frequent
Fredericton
20802100
Quebec
20412069
20202040
Toronto
19611990
London
Winnipeg
Calgary
Victoria
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Number of days above 300 C
… and warmer weather means the possible
arrival of exotic diseases
80
Much of Canada’s Coastline is
Sensitive to Sea-level Rise
… and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty
The General Effects
• Higher temperatures will effect ecosystems
• Flooding of coastal areas
• Storms more severe and frequent
• Floods and Droughts
Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types
of Disasters
Lightning damage
Floods
Fires
Wind
damage
Ecological
disaster
Loss of
life
Structural
damage
The Risk of Forest Fires Will
Increase
Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and
Railways Will Have to be Moved
…and Finally There are Small Risks of
Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions
Primary Sources of GHGs
 Burning fossil fuels


Industry
Transportation
 Refrigeration systems
 Deforestation
 Agriculture and livestock
 Volcanoes
The problem is not just about increasing
sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’
Not Just Warming
 Some places will experience cooling
 Longer Growing Season
 Animals winter outside
 Changes in water distribution – flooding and
droughts
 Melting glaciers and rising sea level
 Spread of Tropical Diseases
 Storms will be more frequent and more violent
Impacts of Climate Change
 Impacts are felt on many different scales




Local – urban heat
Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes
National – Becomes a warmer country
Global – Environmental refugees
Impacts in Other Countries Have
Implications for Canada
 Environmental refugees
 3 billion more in water stressed regions
 200 million more displaced by sea level rise
 80 million more malnourished
 Offshore disasters


Financial assistance
Peace making/keeping
 International conflict over dwindling natural
resources

Darfur (Sudan)
State of Play of Climate Change
 Science is clear – serious problem that needs
to be dealt with immediately
 Must be dealt with at global level
 Emission reductions can take place anywhere
in world
 Global Convention 1992
 Kyoto Protocol 1997
 Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003
Climate Change Plan
Canada’s “Kyoto Gap”
Projected 2010 Business
as Usual Emissions:
809 Mt
900
850
Million tonnes (Mt)
CO2 equivalent
800
2001 Emissions:
720 Mt
750
Business as Usual
“Kyoto Gap”:
270 Mt
700
650
600
550
1990
Emissions:
607 Mt
Kyoto Target -6%:
571 Mt
500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Per cent difference between 2002 emissions and Kyoto targets
-5
*These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the
United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002
Canada
Spain
Austria
Denmark
United States
Japan
Italy
Portugal
Australia
Belgium
Finland
The Netherlands
Switzerland
European Union
Norway
Germany
New Zealand*
France**
United Kingdom*
-10
Sweden*
… and Canada is Furthest From its Target
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
So What is Needed?
 New sources of energy
 New technologies
 New ways of doing business
 Responsible extraction and use of resources
 New social/community values
 Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions
 Incentives, rewards, recognition
 Leadership
What Has Happened Since Kyoto?
 Main elements of program in place but very
slow implementation
 Conservative government backed out but
now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto
commitments
 30% increase in CO2 emissions
Commissioner on Environment and
Sustainable Development
 “Achieving success on a problem as
pervasive as climate change demands that all
levels of government, industry and business
groups, science, academia, and civil society
organizations collaborate.”
 “…developing and deploying new technology
will play a key role in building a healthier and
more sustainable future. Canadians will have
the opportunity to contribute and compete at
home and globally.”
Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to
Parliament
Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct
2006)
 New baseline of 2003
 Intensity targets up to 2020
 Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030
 National target 45-65% reduction by 2050
 Kyoto not mentioned
 Canada subject to Kyoto penalties
Good enough?
Takeaways
 Climate change is real and already
happening
 “greatest challenge to humanity this century”
 Global approach essential but Canada not
pulling its weight
 Technology is seen as being integral to
combat climate change
 Full long-term consequences unknown
The End