Transcript Report on Durban COP17

Kyoto and Beyond
Report on Durban COP17
The 6th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements
related to climate change
www.isciences.com
January 31, 2012
Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international
climate treaty process which began with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Report on Durban COP17 is a summary of the process of negotiations that transpired
during the Conference of the Parties 17 (COP17), Nov. 28-Dec. 11, 2011.
Other presentations in this series include*:
 Kyoto and Beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on
Climate Change (2008)
 Report on Copenhagen COP15 (2009)
 Road to Cancun COP16 (2010)
 Report on Cancun COP16 (2011)
 Road to Durban COP17 (2011)
* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
Contents
COP17 Overview
The Durban Platform
Action at the Conference
Opinions on the Outcome
Climate Clock Keeps Ticking
Looking Ahead
COP 17 Overview
COP17 was held in Durban, South Africa from Nov. 28 to Dec. 11, 2011*
with 194 participating nations.
The unpredictable COP17 began with a lack of optimism due to high stakes – the
future of the Kyoto Protocol, of the UN process, and of the Green Climate Fund. The
lack of cooperation between countries created moods described as “sour.”
South Africa’s President, Jacob Zuma, opened the
talks insisting COP17 must not fail.
“Given the urgency, governments need to strive to
find solutions here in Durban. Change and solution
are always possible.” – Jacob Zuma
Image credit: http://www.cop17cmp7/durban.com
Click here to read Zuma’s opening address
* Scheduled to conclude Dec. 9, a series of disputes caused a temporary
suspension, making it the longest COP on record, lasting 36 hours beyond
schedule.
COP 17 Overview
Objectives
 Determine future of the Kyoto Protocol (2nd commitment period) and
successor to the Protocol, a legally binding instrument post-2012
 Discuss progress and implementation of mechanisms created at COP16, and
their funding, particularly the Green Climate Fund
 Review country commitments to: global financing, emissions reductions,
development and transfer of green technology.
 Discuss the financial/technological needs of Least Developed Countries
(LDCs) and methods for adapting to current effects of climate change; and
discuss equitable access to sustainable development for Developed and
Developing countries.
Click here for achievements at COP16 Cancun.
COP 17 Overview
Controversy
In Durban controversy emerged between developed and developing
countries as groups discussed divisive topics.
“Developed countries… built their economies on dirty energy. So
they’re chiefly responsible for the greenhouse gases … Yet the worst
of the climate change impacts are being felt in least developed
countries.” – Greenpeace Africa
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons
During early stages of the talks the EU proposed a road
map for future agreement but disputes continued,
causing Zuma and COP17 Chair, Maite NkoanaMashabane, to urge nations to find a balance by
thinking beyond national interests.
The disagreements caused a temporary suspension of the talks. It was not until the final
hours, nearly a day and a half over schedule, that an agreement was reached.
COP 17 Overview
Success on Common Responsibility
In spite of the many controversies at COP17 an agreement was reached,
and notably, a principle of common responsibility was formulated.
"We've managed to bring all the major emitters into a road map leading to a global overarching
legal agreement … For the first time we've seen major economies, normally cautious, commit to take
the action demanded by science.“ – Chris Huhne, the UK's Energy and Climate Change Secretary
For the first time in the UNFCCC process it was acknowledged that both developed and
developing countries must be responsible to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Image credit:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/
dec/12/durban-climate-deal-verdict
The negotiations advanced:
 implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol,
 the Bali Action Plan, and the Cancun Agreements,
 a decision by Parties to adopt a universal legal agreement on
climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015.
COP 17 Overview
Important Players
Christiana Figueres, chair of the UNFCCC, strove for success throughout COP17. She believes the
outcome is insufficient but is an important next step.
“There is no Plan B, just as there is no Planet B.”
Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, opened up the conference stating that nothing was
impossible. He urged nations to put aside domestic interests and instilled urgency to take action.
“In the developing world and Africa, climate change is a matter of life and death.”
Connie Hedegaard, European Union Climate Change Commissioner, facilitated a union between the
EU and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) to push for a legally binding agreement.
“… it is not enough to save the process. We also need to save the climate.”
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Elected Chair of COP17, entered into COP17 making promises for
success. When disagreements stalled the talks, Mashabane called for a suspension and a redraft.
“The decisions that we have taken here are truly historical.”
Jayanthi Natajan, India’s Environment Minister, challenged rich countries to ratify a 2nd commitment
period and make promised payments to developing countries before negotiating a new deal.
“It is time that the developed countries stepped up to fulfill their part of the legal commitment.”
Image credits: Figueres, Zuma, Hedegaard and Mashabane: Wikimedia Commons; Natajan: http://smehorizon.sulekha.com/
The Durban Platform
The agreement package reached at the summit includes “The Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action,” a road map towards a new treaty.
 The Platform notes a goal of keeping global temperature increase to 1.5C or 2.0C
above preindustrial levels and notes that current commitments are insufficient to
reach that goal.
“I think everybody understands we’re
 Both developed and developing nations will have to
negotiate a treaty, a “legal instrument or legal
outcome” by 2015 that will reduce carbon emissions.
talking about a legal agreement … that
we have … the major developing
countries agreeing to do that, is
significant.” – Todd Stern, US Climate
Envoy
 The new treaty will go into effect by 2020 and, unlike the Kyoto Protocol, will require
all countries to make emissions cuts. This is a significant departure from the
previously embedded “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle.
Meanwhile, the Kyoto Protocol will be extended for a 2nd commitment period of either 5 or 8
years for nations still bound by it and will end once the new treaty has been ratified and
implemented, either by Dec. 31, 2017 or Dec. 31, 2020.
Click here to read the text of the Durban Platform
Other Decisions Adopted at COP17
Green Climate Fund Agreement reached on basic governance structure for Green Climate Fund.
Adaptation
Adaptation Committee finalized; membership, authorities, and work
methods decided. Voluntary process established for LDCs to create
National Adaptation Plans.
Monitoring,
Reporting, and
Verifying (MRV)
Country guidelines for biennial reports developed; review methods
finalized; more transparency still needed on emissions reductions
pledges.
Greenhouse Gases
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) added to original list of six Kyoto Protocol
greenhouse gases due to global warming potential (17,000 greater than
CO2) and growing use in microchip and solar panel manufacture.
Carbon Capture
and Sequestration
(CSS)
CSS policy refined on long term liability, permanence of sequestration, and
risk of leakage (COP16 Cancun added CSS projects as qualifying projects
under Clean Development Mechanism).
However, action on REDD+ was suspended until COP18.
View official text of decisions adopted by COP17 and CMP7: http://unfccc.int/2860.php
Action at the Conference
Protests
Prior to the start of COP17, rumors circulated about possible protests during
the meeting causing Mashabane to heighten security.
Image credit: Erin Conway – globalpost.com
One protest targeted a permitted, peaceful march. Protestors
disguised as volunteers “physically threatened and attacked
activists.”
Another protest known as “Occupy COP17” consisted of SIDS,
environmental activists, and youth delegates who protested that the
delay in climate change action would mean death in Africa.
Image credit:
twitter.com/OccupyCOP17
In yet another protest Chief of Greenpeace Kumi Naidoo was escorted from the venue in
handcuffs after leading a march on the main plenary session. Naidoo’s aim was to inject
some urgency into the talks.
“I’ve stopped settling for what is deemed ‘politically feasible’ by obstructionists and started asking for what is
morally required and scientifically necessary.”– Middlebury College student, Abigail Borah, after being
ushered out of the convention for interrupting a speech by the lead US negotiator.
Action at the Conference
Country Dynamics – Developed versus Developing
A split in opinions on major issues emerged between developed
and developing countries.
Image credit: Wikimedia
Commons
Representatives from developing countries
stressed that developed countries were not
taking climate change seriously as an
international issue.
“Durban could be where the greatest crime against
humanity is committed. The blind greed and selfinterest of developed countries could literally pass a
death sentence to the people of Africa.” – Nnimmo
Bassey, chair of Friends of Earth International
Developing countries felt urgency for results at COP17 as, for many of these
countries, climate change has become a significant threat.
Action at the Conference
Country Dynamics – China and the US
Many attendants felt the two biggest global emitters, the US and
China, were impeding negotiations with a “ping-pong game.”
Initially, neither country would commit to legally binding reductions. A
stand-off developed regarding who would concede first.
China eventually hinted at readiness to commit to a legally binding
agreement, but many were skeptical about the country’s meaning of
“legally binding.”
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons
The US did not follow suit, and many felt it was held back by domestic
politics where climate change is a controversial issue.
Connie Hedegaard noted that the two were taking on “an almost unbearable responsibility”
since the consequences of inaction are “catastrophic.”
Action at the Conference
Country Dynamics – LCDs and SIDS
The negotiations were especially significant for Least Developed Countries
(LCDs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), many of whom are
already experiencing the effects of climate change.
These nations advocated for the continuation of the Protocol, with the addition of the
most prominent developing nations being bound by reductions.
LDCs and SIDS pushed for limiting temperature rise to 1.5C. Karl Hood, chairman of
the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), stated that accepting anything higher
would be accepting “total annihilation.”
The EU teamed with LDCs and AOSIS to push key players towards
a successful outcome. This coalition helped dispense with the
“firewall” between developed and developing nations.
Image credit: http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/comoros.htm
It is estimated that by 2025, 10% of the population of
Comoros will be displaced by rising sea levels and over $1
billion worth of infrastructure will be destroyed.
Action at the Conference
Country Dynamics – Canada, Japan, and Russia
Canada, accounting for 1.8% of global emissions, withdrew from the
Protocol during COP17*. Canada had committed to reducing emissions 6%
by 2012, but actual emissions have risen by 30% subjecting it to penalty fees
of $14 billion for failing to meet the target.
“I regret Canada’s withdrawal and am surprised over its timing.” – Christiana Figueres
Japan, accounting for 4% of global emissions, refused to sign on to a 2nd
commitment. “The Kyoto Protocol is not the right path," chief Japanese
climate envoy Masahiko Horie said in Durban. Japan would consider a new
global deal if the framework was all-inclusive.
Russia, accounting for 5.67% of global emissions, was the only country to
speak in full support of Canada’s withdrawal from the Protocol. Like Japan,
Russia also refused to support a 2nd commitment period.
Image credits: Canada: virtualamericas.net, Japan: cires.colorado.edu,
Russia: vygotsky.ced.appstate.edu
Emissions data: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=160299
* Article 27 of the Protocol allows any country to withdraw three years after
the Protocol is in force.
Action at the Conference
Disagreement Forces a Suspension
The high level of disagreement during the talks combined with backlash
about the proposed deal caused the temporary suspension of COP17.
Developed
vs
Developing
EU,
SIDS, LDCs
Backlash
COP17
Temporarily
Suspended
The crux of the dispute was how binding the legal wording would be in an eventual
agreement. The current draft spoke of a "legal framework." SIDS, LDCs, and EU
complained that this lacked ambition and committed parties to nothing.
On Friday Dec. 9 Mashabane suspended talks, demanding a redraft of Platform language.
This was a gambit. If agreement was not reached COP17 would be a total failure.
Action at the Conference
The Final Hours – A Call to Action
Mashabane’s winning tactic – a final huddle on the floor of the Plenary
session at 4am Sunday morning Dec. 11 broke the logjam.
Twenty-six nations came together seeking a solution. India held out over concern
about the revised phrasing “legally binding.” With EU, LDCs, and SIDS concurrence, the
phrasing was changed to “legal instrument or legal outcome” to India’s satisfaction. At
last an acceptable proposal was reached – the “Durban package.”
Image credit: http://www.allvoices.com/
The “Durban package” included:
 2nd KP commitment period;
 a decision on the AWG–LCA*;
 a decision on the Green Climate Fund;
 a new instrument, the Durban Platform.
Mashabane asked all parties to adopt each of the decisions in the agreement
without further debate or amendments.
* Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the
Convention
Action at the Conference
The Final Hours – Questioning the Process
Mashabane’s “take it or leave it” proposition was not embraced by all. Some
expressed concern that the decisions lacked transparency and inclusivity,
therefore not supporting the multilateral process.
There was disappointment from
some developing countries that their
amendments were not included in
the package of decisions.
“I have been very patient in this room listening to developed
countries putting ideas forward… and then developing
country parties are not allowed to talk about what they
think about this future we are heading to... So can you
explain please what stage of democracy in this process we
are in?” – Claudia Caldera, Venezuela’s Climate Envoy
Mashabane noted their disappointment, then resumed the COP17 session to adopt the
decisions without further amendment. Consensus moved the “Durban package” to final
adoption.
Opinions on the Outcome
Positive
The agreements at COP17 “represented an
important advance in the work of climate
change.” – Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary General
“The outcome at Durban is a coup for Africa.
Issues that had taken so long to resolve have been
resolved on our soil.” – Jacob Zuma, President of
South Africa
“Very, very pleased. It’s in the upper range of
what we hoped for. We’re pleased both with the
substantive outcome and also the agreement on
this process.” – Erik Solheim, Norway’s Climate
Change Minister
“We’re happy that this major success was
achieved, despite so many different points of
view.” – Jayanthi Natarajan, Indian Environment
Minister
Negative
Regarding COP16 promises made on limiting
global temperature rise to 2C: “Here in Durban,
they have utterly failed to live up to that
promise.” – Jim Leape, Head of WWF
International
“Delaying real action until 2020 is a crime of
global proportions. ” - Nnimmo Bassey, Chair of
Friends of the Earth International
“The deal that has been done in Durban is not
good for the future of the planet, or the poorest
and most vulnerable people. Negotiators have
sent a message to the world’s hungry: ‘Let them
eat carbon’.” – Oxfam statement
“We shouldn’t be under any illusion – the
outcome of Durban leaves us with the prospect of
being legally bound to a world of 4C warming.”
– Keith Allottt, Head of Climate Change, WWF UK
http://www.rtcc.org/policy/speaking-out-on-durban-cop17-in-quotes/
Climate Clock Keeps Ticking
Meanwhile, the world continues on a pathway to warming of over 3 C.
On December 11, 2011, post-COP17, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) released a
statement that, even with the agreement, the world is continuing on a pathway to
warming of over 3C accompanied by extreme weather.
According to CAT, the warming will “bring the world
close to several potential global-scale tipping points.”
These include:




Dieback of the Amazon rainforest
Algae and sea grass replacing coral reefs
Irreversible loss of Greenland ice sheets
Risk of release of methane hydrates from ocean
floor (further adding to warming)
 Thawing of permafrost
Image credit: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/
Click here to view CAT’s infographic on changes due to temperature rise.
Climate Clock Keeps Ticking
COP17’s outcome falls short of what is required to have even a 50/50
chance of capping global temperature rise at 2 degrees.
And, NASA climatologist James Hansen states that even 2 degrees is too much.
This graph
created by CAT
shows the “best
estimate” of
the effects of
the current
reduction
pledges.
“The ultimate objective of the Convention … is … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change…– Article 2, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992
Looking Ahead
UNFCCC events to support multilateral negotiations
 COP18 in Qatar, Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012
 Bonn Climate Change Conference, May 2012
 Protocol’s 2nd commitment period begins, 2013
 New treaty finalized, 2015
 New treaty ratified and implemented, either Dec.
31, 2017 or Dec. 31, 2020 (the end of the Protocol’s
2nd commitment period)
Conclusion
The Durban Platform represents a significant departure from prior treaties:
both developed and developing countries must reduce emissions .
However, confidence in the multilateral climate treaty process remains low
and progress remains slow.
Though developments in Durban push towards global
alignment, the new paradigm does not preclude and may
be better suited to support, regional coalitions that
advance UNFCCC targets using different approaches.
“Let’s not get trapped in a Catch-22
– business waiting for government,
government waiting for business.
Business has plenty to go on – the
megatrend is clear. We must
decarbonize our economy.” –
Christiana Figueres, Oct. 2011
Meanwhile, society is evolving its own responses. Private sector carbon-neutrality
initiatives, shifts in insurance and investment sectors, and societal adaptation will
surely influence the future multilateral process.
Whether these changes will be adequate and soon enough to avoid “dangerous
interference with the climate system” is the big question.
“Kyoto and Beyond” will keep you informed as these important events continue to unfold.
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Citation
When referencing this slideshow
please use the following citation:
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Durban. A
slideshow; 6th installment in the series: Kyoto
and Beyond. January 27, 2012. Ann Arbor,
Michigan. www.isciences.com.